Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper introduces the 'Combined scenario' for Africa, a vision aligned with the African Union's Agenda 2063. It outlines the continent's need to navigate simultaneous demographic, digital, urban, and green transitions while balancing energy access expansion with low-carbon requirements and managing fiscal constraints caused by debt and geopolitical fragmentation.

This research paper proposes a moratorium on 'intractable issues' to prevent them from blocking reforms to the UN Security Council (UNSC).

This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes trends in stability and armed conflict in Africa, highlighting the role of state-based violence, organized crime, and rapid urbanization in driving fatality rates.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies argues that the UN Security Council (UNSC) is losing legitimacy and effectiveness because its structure is out of step with current geopolitical realities. The author highlights the dysfunction caused by the dominance of the five permanent members (P5) and the need for reform to address 21st-century security threats, including cybercrime, AI, and regional conflicts in Africa and the Middle East.

This document provides conclusions and strategic recommendations for improving health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) systems across Africa. It emphasizes the need for a shift from donor dependency toward domestic investment, innovative financing, and regional self-reliance to transform health outcomes into macroeconomic drivers of growth.

Africa's health and WaSH systems are characterized by severe underinvestment, urban-rural disparities, and a precarious dependence on external aid, exemplified by the projected millions of additional deaths following the 2025 closure of USAID. As of 2023, over a billion people lack safely managed sanitation, and nearly a billion lack safely managed water, driving high rates of communicable diseases and hindering educational and economic development. These systems are currently not on track to meet 2030 SDG targets and face increasing pressure from climate-induced water stress and flooding.

This research paper provides a historical and contemporary overview of governance in the Global South, examining how colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes have shaped modern state structures. It analyzes governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and highlights a divergence between political participation and institutional capacity across different regions.

This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers outlines the legal mechanisms for amending the UN Charter to reform the UN Security Council and warns that the high threshold for ratification threatens the legitimacy of the entire UN system.

This research design document outlines the multi-method approach used by the Institute for Security Studies to assess state governance trends and future trajectories in the Global South. The methodology integrates World Bank governance indicators, expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze how geopolitical, economic, and social forces influence the role of the state.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on Africa, detailing the frequency of climate-related disasters, the vulnerability of populations due to socio-economic factors, and the resulting threats to food security, health, and regional stability.

This report conclusion outlines a strategic vision for Africa's industrialisation by 2043, arguing that a shift from exporting raw materials to manufacturing value-added goods can drive significant GDP growth, employment, and poverty reduction. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying foreign direct investment as key catalysts for this transformation.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social development of Africa by 2043 under a 'Combined scenario' compared to a 'Current Path'. The Combined scenario, which integrates policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment, projects significantly higher GDP growth, increased GDP per capita, and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the structural and systemic barriers to trade within Africa, highlighting the impact of high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the continent's historical exclusion from global and regional value chains.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, structural, and policy-driven reasons for Africa's under-industrialisation. It identifies a combination of colonial legacies, infrastructure deficits, skills gaps, and capital constraints as primary barriers, while noting that some countries have seen success through focused industrial strategies and the potential for global supply chain shifts to create new opportunities.

This research paper outlines the 'Demographics and Health Scenario' for Africa, a model designed to accelerate the continent's demographic transition and enhance its demographic dividend through targeted interventions in fertility, mortality, and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines how Africa's health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) trajectories will impact global development, security, and economic stability. It highlights the potential for a demographic dividend if health outcomes improve, while warning that fragile health systems and climate-linked vulnerabilities could increase global pandemic risks and drive migration toward Europe and the Middle East.

This research paper proposes a structured mechanism for the mandatory periodic review of the UN Security Council (UNSC) to prevent deadlocks and ensure the body's functions, composition, and rules remain current.