AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure

This annexure from the Institute for Security Studies compiles various economic estimations from international organizations regarding the potential impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on trade, GDP, employment, and poverty reduction across Africa.

• A 2018 estimation by the African Export-Import Bank (AFREXIMBANK) identified an untapped intra-Africa trade export potential of over US$84 billion, which would increase total intra-Africa trade to US$231 billion. The highest concentration of this untapped potential is in Southern Africa at US$53 billion, followed by North Africa (US$13.4 billion), West Africa (US$9.5 billion), East Africa (US$7.8 billion), and Central Africa (US$840 million). Competitive sectors identified include plastics and rubber, motor vehicles and parts, food products, machinery, and mineral commodities.
• UNCTAD estimated that full AfCFTA implementation with the elimination of all tariffs could result in net welfare gains of approximately US$16 billion, a GDP growth increase of nearly 1%, and a reduction of Africa's total trade deficit by half. Additionally, total employment is projected to improve by slightly more than 1% and intra-Africa trade is forecast to grow by one-third.
• Other institutional forecasts indicate varying growth and income gains: the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) projected growth acceleration of 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points by 2040, while a 2020 IMF study estimated long-term income gains of at least 2.1% and an addition of about US$60 billion to African exports. The Frederick S. Pardee Centre for International Futures expects intra-Africa trade to reach 40% of total African trade by 2063.
• A 2022 World Bank report, produced with the AfCFTA Secretariat, suggests that full implementation by 2035 could raise overall income by 8%, lift 50 million people out of poverty, and increase global exports by 32% and intra-Africa exports by up to 109%. The report anticipates significant wage gains by 2035, specifically 11.2% for female workers and 9.8% for male workers.

APA

Chipanda, B., & Cilliers, J. (2026). AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing, and Jakkie Cilliers. AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026afcfta, author = {Chipanda, Blessing and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }