AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure

The document synthesises projections from AFREXIMBANK, UNCTAD, UNDESA, IMF, the Pardee Centre, and the World Bank on the AfCFTA's potential to increase intra-African trade, boost GDP growth, reduce poverty, and raise wages, particularly for women and skilled workers.

• AFREXIMBANK estimated in 2018 that intra-Africa trade has an untapped export potential of over US$84 billion, which would increase total intra-Africa trade to US$231 billion. The largest share of this untapped potential, US$53 billion, is located in Southern Africa, followed by North Africa (US$13.4 billion), West Africa (US$9.5 billion), East Africa (US$7.8 billion), and Central Africa (US$840 million). Competitive sectors include plastics and rubber, motor vehicles and parts, food products, machinery, and mineral commodities.
• UNCTAD's 2019 scenario for full AfCFTA implementation with all tariffs eliminated projects net welfare gains of approximately US$16 billion, GDP growth nearly 1% faster than the baseline, a one-third increase in intra-Africa trade, and a 50% reduction in Africa's total trade deficit. Employment is expected to improve by slightly over 1%.
• Other institutional projections include a 2019 UNDESA estimate that growth could accelerate by 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points by 2040, and a 2020 IMF study suggesting long-term income gains of at least 2.1% and an addition of US$60 billion to African exports. Additionally, the Frederick S. Pardee Centre for International Futures projected in 2021 that intra-Africa trade would reach 40% of total African trade by 2063.
• A 2022 World Bank and AfCFTA Secretariat report indicates that full implementation by 2035 could increase global exports by 32%, intra-Africa exports by up to 109%, and overall income by 8%, while lifting 50 million people out of poverty. Wage gains are expected to be highest for skilled workers and women, with female workers' wages projected to be 11.2% higher and male workers' wages 9.8% higher by 2035.

APA

Chipanda, B., & Cilliers, J. (2026). AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing, and Jakkie Cilliers. AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026afcfta, author = {Chipanda, Blessing and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFCFTA FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES Annexure}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=08-afcfta&topic=13-annexure}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }