Search Climate Insights Directory

Climate change in Malawi is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts, significantly impacting the agriculture and road infrastructure sectors. While the government has established various policy frameworks and a National Climate Change Fund, mobilization of funding remains constrained by institutional capacity gaps and macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including unsustainable public debt. The report argues that an agriculture-led growth strategy remains the most effective path for poverty reduction despite climate risks and recommends a structured investment platform to translate adaptation plans into bankable projects.

Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate change, with projected increases in the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. The report identifies agriculture, transport, and hydropower as the most critical economic sectors at risk. Agriculture faces significant threats to food security, particularly regarding maize yields, while transport infrastructure is hampered by a high proportion of unpaved roads. The energy sector is heavily dependent on hydropower from the Zambezi River Basin, which is projected to see declining runoff. Macroeconomically, Mozambique is exposed to risks from the global transition to a low-carbon economy due to its reliance on carbon-intensive exports like aluminium and coal. While the government has implemented policies such as Local Adaptation Plans and the National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy, it faces significant constraints in technical capacity and climate finance. The report recommends a transformative approach through Adaptation and Resilience Investment Platforms (ARIPs) to mobilize funding for infrastructure resilience and agricultural diversification.

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate change, with adverse events causing annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of GDP between 2010 and 2020. While some crop yields may increase due to CO2 fertilization and higher elevations, the livestock sector faces significant risks from heat stress and drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands. The report highlights critical vulnerabilities in hydropower, tourism, and coastal infrastructure, while noting that the government is a regional leader in policy but struggles with financing and subnational coordination. Recommendations focus on granular climate scenario analysis, diversifying agriculture, improving agricultural insurance, and mobilizing large-scale funding through ARIPs.

Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and decrease rainfall in Zambia, particularly in the south and west, threatening food security, energy stability, and transport infrastructure. The report highlights that maize yields could drop by over 9% by 2050 under high emissions scenarios, and hydropower generation—which provides 85% of installed capacity—is highly vulnerable to drought. Road infrastructure is also at risk, with flooding in Lusaka and the north potentially disrupting trade and supply chains. While the Zambian government has integrated climate goals into its Eighth National Development Plan and is developing a National Adaptation Plan, significant barriers remain, including severe debt distress and limited technical capacity. The report recommends a programmatic approach to funding via ARIPs to mobilize the estimated US$50 billion needed by 2030, emphasizing region-specific agricultural adaptation and the diversification of the energy mix.

The African Climate Foundation views COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber's holistic approach to the energy sector and his commitment to fixing climate finance as positive steps for Africa. The organization emphasizes the need for equitable access to renewable energy by 2030 and the operationalization of the Loss and Damage fund to support vulnerable African nations.

The document highlights the potential negative economic consequences of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Africa, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs). It warns of significant GDP and export losses, administrative barriers to market access, and a lack of concrete EU financial commitments to help African manufacturing industries decarbonize.

ReNew2030 is a coalition of philanthropic and civil society organisations aiming to scale global wind and solar capacity fivefold by 2030 to align with the 1.5°C warming limit. Funded via The Audacious Project, the initiative focuses on renewables financing, energy transition equity, and corporate mobilisation. The coalition includes regional climate foundations from Africa, China, the US, Europe, Mexico, and Brazil, and is hosted by The European Climate Foundation.

The African Climate Foundation outlines a comprehensive set of recommendations to reform the international financial system, addressing systemic imbalances that limit Africa's access to affordable funding. The report highlights a critical gap in climate finance, noting that mitigation receives over ten times the funding of adaptation. Key proposals include reforming IMF and World Bank governance, overhauling the G20 Common Framework on Debt Treatment, and establishing a Global Resilience Reserve Fund. It also emphasizes the need to address the 'risk mind-set' and biased credit ratings that impose high interest rates on African governments despite low infrastructure project default rates.

The report examines how developed nations are adopting 'climate-justified' protectionist measures, specifically the EU's CBAM and the US's IRA, which depart from previous neoliberal trade doctrines. It argues that these unilateral policies threaten African economic growth and industrialisation by creating market barriers and restricting policy space. The author suggests that Africa should oppose the CBAM, leverage the US's use of localisation to justify its own local content requirements, and campaign for the treatment of green technologies as global public goods through the reform of TRIPS rules.

The report finds that LNG developments in Mozambique and Tanzania face significant transition risks, with asset values potentially dropping by 61% and 69% respectively in a 'Well Below Two Degrees Centigrade' (WB2C) scenario. In a 'Net Zero by 2050' (NZE) scenario, most projects would become uneconomic or 'value destructive' for investors. The authors argue that pursuing domestic gas-led industrialisation could further erode the viability of export projects and may require substantial government subsidies, potentially costing Tanzania approximately $5 billion over 30 years. Consequently, governments face material downside risks to public finances, as they intend to use gas revenues for public expenditure.

The document examines the tension between Africa's significant natural gas resources and the global shift toward net-zero emissions. It argues that while gas provides short-term revenue and energy security, long-term investments face high risks of becoming stranded assets due to declining global demand and the falling costs of renewable energy. The paper advocates for leveraging climate finance to scale up renewables and green hydrogen, which it presents as more sustainable pathways for economic diversification and energy access.

The document argues that Africa's electricity shortage is a binding constraint for industrial production, but can be overcome by exploiting abundant renewable energy and integrating regional power markets. It highlights the African Single Electricity Market (AfSEM) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as key frameworks to drive clean energy industrialisation. The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) is presented as a successful model where energy integration correlates with higher industrial growth compared to the wider SADC region. However, the brief notes that full continental integration by the 2040 target for AfSEM will require significant investment in transmission infrastructure and harmonised regulatory frameworks.

The African Food Systems Transformation Collective is a multi-disciplinary initiative convened by the African Climate Foundation (ACF) and the UNESCO Chair on African Food Systems to address food insecurity and climate vulnerability in Africa. The collective aims to move beyond farm-level reforms toward systemic transformation by coordinating a three-tiered structure of conveners, research bodies (such as CCRED, PLAAS, and the Sam Moyo Institute), and a steering committee of advocacy networks (including AFSA, PELUM, and IPES-Food). Its primary goals are to build a local evidence base, support advocacy, and align philanthropic strategies to fill investment gaps where public and private funding fall short. The initiative focuses on interventions across the entire food value chain, including regenerative agriculture, transport infrastructure, and competition regulation, to support a population where more than a third of the 927 million people facing global food insecurity reside in Africa.

The document identifies a significant investment gap in Africa's energy transition, estimated at US$35 billion per annum, and outlines the structural, political, and economic barriers hindering private investment. It proposes that DFIs take a catalytic role by improving institutional environments, developing bankable project pipelines, and employing innovative financial instruments—such as blended finance, green bonds, and local currency lending—to mitigate risks and crowd in private capital.

The report argues that high food prices in Africa are driven by a combination of climate change, global shocks like the Russia-Ukraine war, and systemic market failures. It highlights extreme corporate concentration in seeds, agrochemicals, and trading, which allows a few firms to capture excess margins at the expense of small-scale farmers and urban consumers. Using maize and soybean markets in East and Southern Africa as case studies, the authors demonstrate how poor regional trade and market power lead to price spikes and reduced production. The document proposes an agenda for action centered on real-time market monitoring via the African Market Observatory, strengthened competition enforcement, and investments in climate-resilient infrastructure.

The document examines the trend of 'supermarketisation' in Africa, where large grocery chains act as gatekeepers in food value chains. It highlights how the buyer power of these chains can marginalise small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through stringent standards and unfair trading terms, which in turn can hinder climate change mitigation investments. The authors propose a 'Sustainability Compact' consisting of behavioural undertakings for fair treatment of suppliers and active investment in supplier development programmes to create more inclusive and sustainable food systems.

The report examines the operationalisation of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), highlighting the necessity of country-led frameworks that integrate climate goals with socio-economic development. Using South Africa as a primary case study, it discusses the gap between international funding pledges and actual transition costs, the need for reduced capital costs, and the critical role of high-level political coordination and philanthropic support in building institutional capacity.