FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE

Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate change, with projected increases in the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. The report identifies agriculture, transport, and hydropower as the most critical economic sectors at risk. Agriculture faces significant threats to food security, particularly regarding maize yields, while transport infrastructure is hampered by a high proportion of unpaved roads. The energy sector is heavily dependent on hydropower from the Zambezi River Basin, which is projected to see declining runoff. Macroeconomically, Mozambique is exposed to risks from the global transition to a low-carbon economy due to its reliance on carbon-intensive exports like aluminium and coal. While the government has implemented policies such as Local Adaptation Plans and the National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy, it faces significant constraints in technical capacity and climate finance. The report recommends a transformative approach through Adaptation and Resilience Investment Platforms (ARIPs) to mobilize funding for infrastructure resilience and agricultural diversification.

• Mozambique's coastal regions are highly exposed to climate risks, as 60 percent of the population and the three largest cities are located there. Low-lying provinces including Maputo, Sofala, Nampula, and Zambezia are particularly vulnerable to flooding.
• Climate change is projected to significantly reduce agricultural productivity, with maize being the most affected key crop. Under a high emissions scenario, maize yields could decline by approximately 15 percent by 2050, threatening food security and increasing reliance on imports.
• The transport sector is highly vulnerable due to the fact that approximately 80 percent of the 30,562 km road network is unpaved. This makes roads susceptible to heavy rainfall and flooding, which can disconnect rural farmers from urban markets and disrupt regional trade for landlocked neighbors.
• Mozambique's energy sector is heavily dependent on hydropower, which accounts for 78 percent of installed capacity as of 2022. Climate change is projected to reduce total annual power generation by 10–20 percent in the 21st century due to reduced runoff in the Zambezi River Basin.
• The country faces macroeconomic risks from the global transition to a low-carbon economy because its primary exports—aluminium, coal, and petroleum—are carbon-intensive. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could specifically increase the cost of aluminium exports by 39 percent.
• Sea levels are projected to rise substantially, with estimates suggesting a rise of 45 cm by 2100. This could result in the loss of an estimated 4,850 square kilometers of land by 2040 and increase the probability of severe storm surges.
• The Government of Mozambique has adopted a decentralized approach to adaptation, with Local Adaptation Plans (LAPs) developed for 132 out of 154 districts as of 2021. These plans focus on early warning systems, food security, and biodiversity protection.
• Mozambique suffers from a massive climate finance gap, requiring an estimated US$53 billion for the current decade, which is roughly three times its GDP. This far exceeds the US$3.7 billion mobilized between 2011 and 2020.

APA

African Climate Foundation (2023). FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf

Chicago

African Climate Foundation. FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE. 2023. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=African Climate Foundation |title=FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE |date=November 2023 |url=https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{africanclimatefoundation2023from, author = {{African Climate Foundation}}, title = {{FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE}}, institution = {African Climate Foundation}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }