FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE

This report by the African Climate Foundation and IFPRI analyzes the economic impacts of climate change in Mozambique, focusing on vulnerabilities in agriculture, energy, and transport. It details projected temperature increases and rainfall volatility, the risk of sea-level rise to coastal populations, and the macroeconomic threats posed by a global transition to low-carbon economies. The document evaluates the Government of Mozambique's current adaptation strategies, such as Local Adaptation Plans, and recommends the establishment of an Adaptation and Resilience Investment Platform (ARIP) to mobilize funding and improve technical capacity.

• Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather, with a trend of increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones and flooding. Recent data suggests the country is affected by a tropical cyclone or flood every two years on average, and a drought every three years.
• Climate change is projected to increase average temperatures across Mozambique and cause higher precipitation variability, particularly in the south. Mean temperatures increased by 1.46°C between 1963 and 2020.
• Sea levels are projected to rise substantially, with estimates of 13–56 cm by 2090 from some sources and up to 70 cm by 2100 in high-emissions scenarios. This could result in the loss of approximately 4,850 km2 of land by 2040.
• The agriculture sector is severely threatened, with maize projected to be the most affected crop, potentially seeing yield declines of about 15% by 2050 under high emissions. Conversely, rice yields are projected to improve.
• Mozambique's energy sector is heavily dependent on hydropower, which accounts for 78% of installed capacity. Climate change may reduce total annual power generation by 10–20% in the 21st century due to reduced runoff, specifically affecting the Cahora Bassa plant.
• Transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable due to a high proportion of unpaved roads (approximately 80%). Flooding and cyclones frequently disrupt key logistics corridors, such as the Maputo, Beira, and Nacala corridors, impacting regional trade for landlocked neighbors.
• The economy faces transition risks because its primary exports—aluminium, coal, and petroleum—are carbon-intensive. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could increase the cost of aluminium exports by 39% and reduce GDP by 1.6%.
• The Government of Mozambique is implementing a decentralized adaptation approach through Local Adaptation Plans (LAPs), with 132 out of 154 districts having formulated plans as of 2021.
• Significant gaps in climate preparedness include limited technical capacity for policy implementation, poor government coordination, and a substantial funding gap. The total funding required for the current decade is estimated at US$53 billion.

APA

African Climate Foundation (2023). FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf

Chicago

African Climate Foundation. FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE. 2023. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=African Climate Foundation |title=FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE |date=November 2023 |url=https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{africanclimatefoundation2023from, author = {{African Climate Foundation}}, title = {{FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE}}, institution = {African Climate Foundation}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800834-AFC-Mozambique-country-note-05A.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }