FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAMBIA

Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and decrease rainfall in Zambia, particularly in the south and west, threatening food security, energy stability, and transport infrastructure. The report highlights that maize yields could drop by over 9% by 2050 under high emissions scenarios, and hydropower generation—which provides 85% of installed capacity—is highly vulnerable to drought. Road infrastructure is also at risk, with flooding in Lusaka and the north potentially disrupting trade and supply chains. While the Zambian government has integrated climate goals into its Eighth National Development Plan and is developing a National Adaptation Plan, significant barriers remain, including severe debt distress and limited technical capacity. The report recommends a programmatic approach to funding via ARIPs to mobilize the estimated US$50 billion needed by 2030, emphasizing region-specific agricultural adaptation and the diversification of the energy mix.

• Zambia is projected to experience rising average temperatures and declining rainfall, especially in southern and western regions, which will likely increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods.
• Water availability in Zambia is expected to decrease by approximately 13% by 2100, with the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins being the most adversely affected.
• Agriculture is highly vulnerable, with maize yields projected to decrease by more than 9% by 2050 under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5).
• The livestock subsector faces increased risks from pests, diseases, and reduced forage due to drought, with the proportion of affected livestock projected to rise from 21% to 34% under high emissions.
• Zambia's road network is highly susceptible to climate damage, particularly in the north and in Lusaka Province; the country faces a potential opportunity cost of 11% in the median climate scenario if adaptation measures are not taken.
• The energy sector is extremely vulnerable due to an 85% reliance on hydropower, with projected hydropower production potential decreases of 9% in the 2020s, 18% in the 2050s, and 28% in the 2080s under a medium emissions scenario.
• Climate risks to Zambia's energy sector could disrupt global green technology transitions because Zambia is the world's top exporter of raw copper, a critical component for electric vehicles and solar photovoltaics.
• Zambia's fiscal position, characterized by high debt distress (above 104% of GDP) and a 'default' credit rating, severely limits its capacity to fund climate adaptation and resilience measures.
• The government is working toward a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and has integrated climate actions into the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP), but faces challenges in cross-sectoral coordination and technical capacity.
• Zambia's total climate finance need is estimated at US$50 billion through 2030, with adaptation specifically requiring US$14.9 billion for the 2023–2030 period.

APA

African Climate Foundation (2023). FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAMBIA. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800835-ACF-Zambia-country-note-04.pdf

Chicago

African Climate Foundation. FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAMBIA. 2023. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800835-ACF-Zambia-country-note-04.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=African Climate Foundation |title=FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAMBIA |date=November 2023 |url=https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800835-ACF-Zambia-country-note-04.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{africanclimatefoundation2023from, author = {{African Climate Foundation}}, title = {{FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAMBIA}}, institution = {African Climate Foundation}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800835-ACF-Zambia-country-note-04.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }