FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate change, with adverse events causing annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of GDP between 2010 and 2020. While some crop yields may increase due to CO2 fertilization and higher elevations, the livestock sector faces significant risks from heat stress and drought, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands. The report highlights critical vulnerabilities in hydropower, tourism, and coastal infrastructure, while noting that the government is a regional leader in policy but struggles with financing and subnational coordination. Recommendations focus on granular climate scenario analysis, diversifying agriculture, improving agricultural insurance, and mobilizing large-scale funding through ARIPs.

• Between 2010 and 2020, climate change-related events caused annual socioeconomic losses in Kenya estimated at 3–5 percent of total GDP.
• Climate projections for Kenya show high uncertainty regarding precipitation, but temperatures are expected to rise, with some models predicting an increase of over 1.5°C by 2050.
• The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable because 98 percent of its production is rainfed, making it susceptible to temperature and rainfall variations.
• While national average yields for maize, sorghum, wheat, and rice are projected to increase by 2050 due to CO2 fertilization and higher elevation cropping, heat stress and droughts remain significant risks to food security.
• The livestock subsector is projected to decline by 6 percent between 2019 and 2050, with pastoral communities in arid and semi-arid lands being disproportionately affected by heat stress and water scarcity.
• Sea level rise threatens coastal infrastructure and ecosystems; a 30 cm rise could inundate 17 percent (4,600 hectares) of Mombasa, impacting the region's largest international seaport.
• Hydropower, which provided about one-third of Kenya's electricity generation in 2021, is at risk from severe droughts that can reduce production by up to 40 percent.
• Kenya's tourism industry is threatened by the degradation of ecosystems, including the potential loss of suitability for 13 percent of species in the Maasai Mara National Reserve by 2050.
• Despite being a regional leader in climate policy, Kenya faces challenges in adaptation due to a heavy reliance on international finance, weak institutional coordination, and gaps in monitoring and evaluation.
• The green bond market in Kenya has seen limited success, with only one issuance by Acorn Holdings in 2019, hindered by the lack of a national green taxonomy and financial sector vulnerabilities.
• Agricultural insurance uptake is below 1 percent, limiting its effectiveness as a safety net for farmers against extreme weather events.

APA

African Climate Foundation (2023). FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800832-ACF-Kenya-country-note-04.pdf

Chicago

African Climate Foundation. FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA. 2023. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800832-ACF-Kenya-country-note-04.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=African Climate Foundation |title=FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA |date=November 2023 |url=https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800832-ACF-Kenya-country-note-04.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{africanclimatefoundation2023from, author = {{African Climate Foundation}}, title = {{FROM CLIMATE RISK TO RESILIENCE: UNPACKING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA}}, institution = {African Climate Foundation}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/800832-ACF-Kenya-country-note-04.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }