Search Climate Insights Directory

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for sub-Saharan Africa from 2019 to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) platform. It analyzes demographic shifts, economic growth, poverty trends, and energy transitions, projecting a region with significant population growth, increasing urbanization, and a shift toward manufacturing and renewable energy, despite persistent challenges with food insecurity and carbon emissions.

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), established in 1983 and revised in 2019, comprises 11 member states in Central Africa. While its mandate expanded in 1998 to include peace and security alongside economic cooperation, the region continues to face challenges including low regional integration, currency diversity, and significant economic disparities, with member states ranging from low-income to nominally upper-middle-income.

This research paper presents an 'Agriculture scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential impact of an agricultural revolution through eight specific interventions using the IFs forecasting platform. The scenario aims to address low productivity, climate vulnerability, and food insecurity to stimulate rural economic transformation and diversification.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

A report by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) detailing how deforestation in the Congo Basin disrupts a climate teleconnection that provides critical rainfall to West Africa, specifically threatening the global cocoa supply chain and increasing costs for European importers.

This policy brief examines China's dominant role in Africa's critical minerals sector, highlighting the tension between increased investment and the lack of local value addition. It argues that while China's infrastructure-led approach and state support provide a competitive edge, African nations must shift from exporting raw materials to developing domestic processing and refining capabilities to avoid the 'resource curse' and benefit from the global energy transition.

This research paper examines the role of vertical industrial policies in Africa, using the cement industries of Nigeria and Morocco as primary case studies to demonstrate how targeted government intervention can drive sustainable industrial growth and economic diversification.

A briefing by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) analyzing the potential methane emissions from 74 proposed oil and gas extraction projects scheduled to reach peak production by 2030. The report highlights a conflict between new fossil fuel expansion and global methane reduction commitments, noting significant discrepancies between company-reported emissions and GEM's estimates for projects under development.

This research paper by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the outcomes of COP 28 in Dubai, assessing how the agreements and financial commitments align with the priorities of African nations and civil society organizations. It evaluates progress on the Loss and Damage fund, adaptation finance, the transition away from fossil fuels, and food system resilience, concluding that while historic agreements were reached, the scale of financial commitments remains insufficient to meet Africa's urgent climate needs.

This policy brief from the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the rising public debt burden in Africa, the complexities of its current composition, and the necessary reforms to the global financial architecture. It argues that while the G20 has established mechanisms like the Common Framework and the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), these are insufficient. The document proposes that the African Union (AU), as a new permanent member of the G20, should advocate for an African Credit Rating Agency, an African Debt Monitoring Mechanism, and a more inclusive debt restructuring process that includes private creditors and provides longer repayment periods.

The December 2023/January 2024 edition of the Peace & Security Council Report evaluates the African Union's (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) performance in 2023, highlighting a trend toward discussing thematic issues over sensitive country crises. It examines the challenges of consensus-based decision-making, the upcoming 2024 AU chairship and PSC membership elections, and the potential impact of the UN's New Agenda for Peace on African security architecture.

This background note provides energy production and demand forecasts for Africa and the global community up to 2043, based on the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It details the transition of energy sources, the growth of African energy demand driven by population increases, and the status of fossil fuel reserves and renewable energy projects across the continent.

This background note from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's energy export and import trends under a 'Current Path' forecast up to 2043, highlighting the contrast between a few major energy exporters and a majority of countries dependent on imports.

This special edition of the Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the resurgence of military coups and unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) in Africa, specifically focusing on a 'third wave' since 2019. The report analyzes the drivers of these coups, the role of 'constitutional coups' (manipulating term limits), the impact of civil-military relations, and the effectiveness of African Union (AU) and regional sanctions.

This report examines the state of global forest governance, highlighting the critical link between strong legal frameworks and the ability to curb deforestation. It evaluates progress across protected areas, national policy reforms, industrial logging practices in developed nations, trade regulations, and the legal recognition of Indigenous Peoples' and local communities' land rights.

This document provides the technical annexes for the 2023 Forest Declaration Assessment, detailing the definitions, regional aggregations, and methodologies used to track forest loss, degradation, restoration, and biodiversity. It includes a specific data table comparing 2022 deforestation levels against a 2018-2020 baseline for 30 high-impact countries.

The November 2022 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines political instability in Tunisia, counter-terrorism strategies in the Sahel, and the security risks posed by acute food insecurity across Africa.

This policy brief examines the intersection of international trade and climate change, specifically focusing on how the World Trade Organization (WTO) can facilitate cooperation to support climate mitigation and adaptation goals while ensuring a just transition for developing countries.

This policy brief examines how the war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and increased fertilizer prices across Africa, threatening food security and crop yields. It argues that while short-term input subsidies are necessary, African nations must pursue long-term industrialization to build local fertilizer manufacturing capacity using the continent's own natural gas, coal, and phosphate rock reserves.

The 2022 Forest Declaration Assessment evaluates global progress toward the 2030 goals of halting deforestation and restoring 350 million hectares of degraded land. The report concludes that no global indicator is currently on track to meet these targets, noting that while some regional progress exists, radical transformations in finance, governance, and production are required to shift the global forest trajectory.