Peace & Security Council Report

This special edition of the Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the resurgence of military coups and unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) in Africa, specifically focusing on a 'third wave' since 2019. The report analyzes the drivers of these coups, the role of 'constitutional coups' (manipulating term limits), the impact of civil-military relations, and the effectiveness of African Union (AU) and regional sanctions.

• Africa is experiencing a 'third wave' of military coups since 2019, with the August 30, 2023, coup in Gabon marking the 100th successful military coup in post-colonial Africa. This recent upsurge follows a downward trend from the 1990s, where successful coups dropped from 15 in the 1990s to eight between 2001 and 2010, and six between 2011 and 2020.
• Contemporary coups differ from previous waves by being 'smart coups'—largely bloodless with fewer human rights abuses and officeholder executions. They are frequently led by elite presidential guards rather than the regular army, particularly in francophone countries, due to the guards' proximity to the presidency and superior equipment.
• Constitutional manipulations, or 'constitutional coups,' often predispose states to military takeovers by eroding citizen trust in democratic norms. Between 2002 and 2023, there were 24 attempts to amend constitutions to extend political power, with a success rate of approximately 78%. These modifications typically involve altering term limit durations or removing them entirely.
• Civil-military relations (CMR) are strained by the politicization of security services and the use of presidential guards, which creates tensions with regular armed forces who handle combat but are less equipped. In West Africa, frictions have been exacerbated by disagreements over foreign security partners, such as the Wagner Group in Mali and Burkina Faso.
• External actors are often scapegoated for coups, though their influence is complex. While some argue that Western powers like France and the US manipulate events for strategic interests or natural resources (such as uranium in Niger), the report suggests that domestic misgovernance and insecurity remain the primary drivers. There is a noted rise in anti-imperialist and anti-French sentiment among citizens in the Sahel.
• AU and regional sanctions, primarily suspensions, are increasingly viewed as ineffective in deterring UCGs. The report notes inconsistencies in the AU's application of norms, such as the delayed suspension of Niger and the failure to treat the military takeover in Chad as a UCG. Furthermore, comprehensive economic sanctions by ECOWAS have sometimes fostered popular support for coup-makers through nationalist sentiment.

APA

Mahdi, M., Soumahoro, M., Kinkoh, H., Atta-Asamoah, A., Aboagaye, F., & Souaré, I. (2023). Peace & Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC-Report-161.pdf

Chicago

Mahdi, Maram, Moussa Soumahoro, Hubert Kinkoh, Andrews Atta-Asamoah, Festus Aboagaye, and Issaka Souaré. Peace & Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC-Report-161.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{mahdi2023peace, author = {Mahdi, Maram and Soumahoro, Moussa and Kinkoh, Hubert and Atta-Asamoah, Andrews and Aboagaye, Festus and Souaré, Issaka}, title = {{Peace \& Security Council Report}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC-Report-161.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }