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AFRICA ENERGY FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.
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Document type: Research paper
The electric fast-track for emerging markets
This report by Ember and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) argues that falling costs for 'electrotech'—solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies—provide a faster and cheaper path to energy access and economic development for emerging markets than traditional fossil-fuel-based models. It highlights how many CVF nations are already leapfrogging developed economies in solar penetration and electrification, reducing their dependence on expensive fossil fuel imports.
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Document type: Report
UN SECURITY COUNCIL REFORM: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers outlines principles for reforming the UN Security Council (UNSC) to better reflect current global power dynamics and increase legitimacy. The author argues for an expanded Council that balances representation with functionality and realism, proposing the removal of the veto and the introduction of minimum capacity criteria for membership.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future
This report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the challenges Africa faces in transitioning to a low-carbon future, emphasizing that the region will suffer disproportionately from climate change despite its low contribution to the cause. It argues for a gradual energy transition, the necessity of climate finance, and the implementation of a fair global carbon tax to support sustainable development and resilience.
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Document type: Report
The AfCFTA
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the critical lack of connecting infrastructure in Africa and its impact on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It highlights significant gaps in road and air transport, the financial deficits in infrastructure funding, and the role of external investment from China.
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Document type: Research paper
Introduction: The Current Status of our Climate
This research paper introduction from the Institute for Security Studies provides an overview of the current global climate crisis, highlighting record-breaking temperatures in 2024, the increasing frequency of weather-related disasters, and the rising scale of climate-induced displacement. It emphasizes the gap between current policies and the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, while noting the persistent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
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Document type: Research paper
Current Path: Thematic Futures
This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.
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Document type: Report
State Futures in the Global South
This research paper provides a historical and contemporary overview of governance in the Global South, examining how colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes have shaped modern state structures. It analyzes governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and highlights a divergence between political participation and institutional capacity across different regions.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.
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Document type: Research paper
UN Security Council
This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the failure of UN Security Council (UNSC) reform, attributing the deadlock to the entrenched positions of negotiating blocks and the P5 members' desire to maintain the veto power and their associated privileges.
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Document type: Research paper
African Responses to Climate Change
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines two primary policy responses to climate change in Africa: carbon sequestration through forest regeneration and the implementation of a global carbon tax. It highlights the critical role of the Congo Basin as a carbon sink and analyzes four illustrative global carbon tax scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment approach aligns best with international equity principles and the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Research paper
The Urgency of Reform
This research paper argues that the UN Security Council (UNSC) requires structural reform due to its eroding authority and a global shift in power. Using forecasting data, the author suggests that future legitimacy depends on including the US, China, and India, while proposing a move away from permanent vetoes toward verifiable criteria for global power and the potential inclusion of regional coalitions.
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Document type: Research paper
Carbon Emissions: Global Picture and Forecast
This report analyzes global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and land use, providing forecasts through 2063. It highlights the dominance of coal, the climate impact of LNG, and the roles of major emitters like China, the US, and India, while detailing the specific environmental pressures facing Africa, including deforestation and water scarcity.
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Document type: Report
Reconductoring: The Path of Least Resistance to Fixing the U.S. Energy Grid
This report by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute examines reconductoring—the process of replacing existing electrical transmission cables with advanced conductors—as a rapid and cost-effective method to increase the capacity of the U.S. energy grid. The author argues that reconductoring can bypass lengthy permitting processes, reduce energy costs, and support the transition to clean energy by enabling the connection of stalled renewable projects and meeting rising electricity demands from electric vehicles and data centers.
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Document type: Report
Overcoming fossil lock-in is pivotal for Asia to buffer against energy shocks
This report by Ember analyzes the vulnerability of Asian economies to energy supply and price shocks resulting from conflict in the Middle East, specifically focusing on the risks of fossil fuel lock-in. It argues that reliance on imported oil and LNG exposes the region to economic instability, inflation, and geopolitical fragmentation, and advocates for an accelerated transition to renewable energy and regional grid integration to ensure long-term energy security.
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Document type: Report
Förderung der Energiewende in Nigeria: Eine Bestandsaufnahme chinesischer Investitionen und strategischer Prioritäten
This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes China's evolving role in Nigeria's clean energy transition. It details a shift from large-scale, debt-heavy infrastructure projects to smaller, commercially oriented 'BRI 2.0' initiatives focusing on distributed renewables, local manufacturing, and green hydrogen. The document outlines Nigeria's energy deficits, its policy targets for 2030 and 2060, and the strategic 'stacking' of Chinese, Western, and multilateral finance to achieve energy sovereignty and industrialization.
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Document type: Report
Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025
This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the geopolitical landscape of Africa in 2025, characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world. It examines the impact of US strategic retrenchment, the first G20 summit held on the continent, tensions in the Horn of Africa, and the strategic competition over critical minerals along the Lobito Corridor.
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Document type: Report
Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN)
This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the geopolitical landscape of Africa in 2025, characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world order. It examines the impact of the second Trump administration's transactional approach to US-Africa relations, the outcomes of the first G20 summit held on the continent in South Africa, and the strategic competition over critical minerals along the Lobito Corridor. The document also details increasing instability in the Horn of Africa driven by global and regional power rivalries.
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Document type: Report
Prospective wind and utility-scale solar pipeline reached almost 5 TW in 2025
The global pipeline for wind and utility-scale solar projects grew by 11% in 2025, reaching 4.9 TW. While China and India lead in construction and prospective capacity, G7 nations show stagnant growth in their pipelines, creating a gap in meeting the COP28 goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
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Document type: Report
International Conversations on Trade and Climate: From the World Trade Organization to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
This research paper by Ieva Baršauskaitė and Antoine Bonnet analyzes the transition of trade-related climate measures from abstract policy debates to practical implementation between 2025 and early 2026. It examines the evolving roles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in managing issues of transparency, interoperability, and development equity, positioning the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) as a critical juncture for consolidating these international efforts.
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Document type: Research paper