Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025

In 2025, African nations faced a fragmented global order characterized by US strategic retrenchment and intensifying competition over critical minerals. The year was marked by the first G20 summit on African soil in South Africa, which pushed for reforms in sovereign credit rating practices and international financial support. While some states like Nigeria and Kenya increased domestic resource mobilization to counter US aid cuts, others in the Horn of Africa became focal points for geopolitical rivalry involving Israel and Gulf Arab states. Additionally, the Lobito Corridor emerged as a key site for US and EU efforts to counter Chinese dominance in critical mineral supply chains, though this development is accompanied by governance risks in the DRC and Zambia.

• The second Trump administration's "America First" agenda led to a transactional approach to US-Africa relations, characterized by significant aid reductions and new tariffs, which triggered humanitarian crises and instability. In response, countries such as Nigeria and Kenya accelerated domestic tax collection and revenue drives to reduce structural dependency on external donors, although these efforts are hindered by high debt-service obligations.
• The 2025 G20 Leaders Summit in Johannesburg, the first held in Africa, established the G20 Africa Engagement Framework to align international finance with African development. South Africa advocated for the African Credit Rating Agency and a Cost of Capital Commission to challenge the dominance of US-based firms S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. The G20 also pledged to help developing countries reach a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15 percent through expanded technical assistance for tax capacity-building.
• The Horn of Africa has become a site of intense geopolitical competition, exemplified by Israel's recognition of Somaliland to secure a Red Sea foothold and counter influence from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Houthis. Rivalries between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have further fueled proxy wars and destabilized the region, undermining the conflict management capacities of the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development.

APA

Gnanguêenon, A., Adegoke, O., & Gabadadze, L. (2026). Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025

Chicago

Gnanguêenon, Amandine, Olufolake Adegoke, and Lili Gabadadze. Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2026. https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gnanguêenon |first1=Amandine |last2=Adegoke |first2=Olufolake |last3=Gabadadze |first3=Lili |title=Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025 |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=16 March 2026 |url=https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gnanguenon2026africa, author = {Gnanguêenon, Amandine and Adegoke, Olufolake and Gabadadze, Lili}, title = {{Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }