Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025

This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the geopolitical landscape of Africa in 2025, characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world. It examines the impact of US strategic retrenchment, the first G20 summit held on the continent, tensions in the Horn of Africa, and the strategic competition over critical minerals along the Lobito Corridor.

• The return of the Trump administration in January 2025 introduced a transactional approach to US-Africa relations, characterized by 'commercial diplomacy' and significant aid cuts. This shift triggered humanitarian crises and instability, prompting countries like Nigeria and Kenya to increase domestic tax collection and resource mobilization to reduce dependency on external donors, although these efforts are hindered by high debt-service obligations.
• The 2025 G20 Leaders Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, was the first held in Africa and the first since the African Union became a permanent member. A major outcome was the G20 Africa Engagement Framework, a five-year plan to align international financial support with African priorities. South Africa specifically advocated for the African Credit Rating Agency and a Cost of Capital Commission to challenge the dominance of US-based rating firms (S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch) and reduce borrowing costs.
• The Lobito Corridor has become a site of strategic competition between the US, EU, and China over critical mineral supply chains. While China leads in refining, the US and EU are investing in midstream processing, such as the Lobito Atlantic Railway and Zambia's Kobaloni Energy Refinery. The DRC and Zambia have worked since 2021 to create a cross-border battery and electric vehicle Special Economic Zone (SEZ), though the project faces governance risks including forced evictions in the DRC.
• Geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa has intensified, highlighted by Israel's recognition of Somaliland to secure a Red Sea foothold and counter influences from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Houthi forces in Yemen. Additionally, rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has fueled proxy wars and instability, undermining the ability of the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development to manage conflicts.
• Relations between the African Union and the European Union remain strained due to African skepticism toward the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Global Gateway initiative. African governments view the CBAM as a way of shifting the costs of Europe's decarbonization onto African nations.

APA

Gnanguêenon, A., Adegoke, O., & Gabadadze, L. (2026). Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025

Chicago

Gnanguêenon, Amandine, Olufolake Adegoke, and Lili Gabadadze. Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2026. https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gnanguêenon |first1=Amandine |last2=Adegoke |first2=Olufolake |last3=Gabadadze |first3=Lili |title=Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025 |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=16 March 2026 |url=https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gnanguenon2026africa, author = {Gnanguêenon, Amandine and Adegoke, Olufolake and Gabadadze, Lili}, title = {{Africa in a Multipolar World: Navigating Power in Shifting Global Order, 2025}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://afripoli.org/africa-in-a-multipolar-world-navigating-power-in-shifting-global-order-2025}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }