Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN)

This report by the Africa Policy Research Institute analyzes the geopolitical landscape of Africa in 2025, characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world order. It examines the impact of the second Trump administration's transactional approach to US-Africa relations, the outcomes of the first G20 summit held on the continent in South Africa, and the strategic competition over critical minerals along the Lobito Corridor. The document also details increasing instability in the Horn of Africa driven by global and regional power rivalries.

• The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency in January 2025 introduced a 'transactional approach' to relations with Africa, characterized by significant aid reductions and new tariffs. This shift led to immediate humanitarian crises and instability, prompting countries like Nigeria and Kenya to increase domestic tax collection and resource mobilization to reduce dependency on external donors, although these efforts are hindered by high debt-service obligations.
• South Africa hosted the 2025 G20 Leaders Summit in Johannesburg, the first such event on African soil and the first since the African Union became a permanent member. A major outcome was the G20 Africa Engagement Framework, a five-year plan to align international financial support with African priorities. This included efforts to reform sovereign credit rating practices and a proposal by South Africa for a Cost of Capital Commission and an African Credit Rating Agency to challenge the dominance of US-based firms S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch.
• The Lobito Corridor has become a primary site of strategic competition between the US, EU, and China over critical mineral supply chains. While China leads in refining, the US and EU are investing in midstream processing, such as the US-backed Lobito Atlantic Railway and the Kobaloni Energy Refinery in Zambia. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia have worked since 2021 to create a cross-border battery and electric vehicle Special Economic Zone (SEZ), though the project faces governance risks including forced evictions in the DRC.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa have escalated, highlighted by Israel's recognition of Somaliland to secure a Red Sea foothold and counter influences from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Houthi forces in Yemen. Additionally, rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has fueled proxy wars and competing alliances, undermining the ability of the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development to manage conflicts.
• Relations between the African Union and the European Union are strained by African skepticism toward EU initiatives like the Global Gateway and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which are perceived as transferring the costs of European decarbonization to African nations.

APA

Gnanguênon, A., Adegoke, O., & Gabadadze, L. (2026). Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN). Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/de/afrika-in-einer-multipolaren-welt-machtpolitik-in-einer-sich-wandelnden-weltordnung-2025-en

Chicago

Gnanguênon, Amandine, Olufolake Adegoke, and Lili Gabadadze. Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN). Africa Policy Research Institute, 2026. https://afripoli.org/de/afrika-in-einer-multipolaren-welt-machtpolitik-in-einer-sich-wandelnden-weltordnung-2025-en.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gnanguênon |first1=Amandine |last2=Adegoke |first2=Olufolake |last3=Gabadadze |first3=Lili |title=Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN) |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=16 March 2026 |url=https://afripoli.org/de/afrika-in-einer-multipolaren-welt-machtpolitik-in-einer-sich-wandelnden-weltordnung-2025-en |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gnangunon2026afrika, author = {Gnanguênon, Amandine and Adegoke, Olufolake and Gabadadze, Lili}, title = {{Afrika in einer multipolaren Welt: Machtpolitik in einer sich wandelnden Weltordnung, 2025 (EN)}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://afripoli.org/de/afrika-in-einer-multipolaren-welt-machtpolitik-in-einer-sich-wandelnden-weltordnung-2025-en}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }