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This report examines Sudan's development prospects through 2043, identifying the 2023 civil war as the primary constraint on growth. While the 'Current Path' predicts stagnant GDP per capita and persistent extreme poverty, a 'Combined scenario' of reforms in agriculture, governance, trade (AfCFTA), and financial flows could significantly raise living standards and lift 17.3 million more people out of poverty. The report highlights Sudan's vast untapped renewable energy and agricultural potential but emphasizes that a political settlement and the restoration of state institutions are absolute prerequisites for any sustainable recovery.

The March 2025 Peace & Security Council Report analyzes critical instability in South Sudan and Sudan, the African Union's (AU) struggles to manage post-coup transitions in several member states, and the shortcomings of AU election observer missions in 2024. It calls for the Peace and Security Council (PSC) to adopt more risk-based, high-level engagement strategies and improve internal coordination to prevent the fragmentation of states and the entrenchment of military juntas.

A rapid assessment by FSD Africa and FCDO Sudan analyzing the collapse of agri-food and payment systems in Sudan due to ongoing conflict, proposing targeted resilience-building interventions to combat acute food insecurity affecting over 20 million people.

This report analyzes the demographic trends and development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—up to 2040, focusing on population growth, fertility rates, the potential for a demographic dividend, and urbanization patterns.

This report, commissioned by FSD Africa and conducted by Strategic Impact Advisors (SIA), examines the challenges and opportunities for implementing digital financial services (DFS) for humanitarian cash transfers in Sudan. It analyzes both the supply side (financial institutions, MNOs, and fintechs) and the demand side (beneficiaries in White Nile and West Darfur), providing recommendations to improve digital readiness and infrastructure to support displaced populations.

This report analyzes land-use changes between 2015 and 2019 in the most populous cities of the 'Critical 9' countries to assess the impact of urbanization on the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE) and cooling needs. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 emissions scenario, the analysis details how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks—such as forests, wetlands, and vegetation—increases heat risks for vulnerable populations.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the trajectories of political violence in Sudan and South Sudan following the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS). Using ACLED and UCDP GED data, it examines whether these agreements resolved, reshaped, or perpetuated violence, concluding that while the CPA ended a long civil war, it left other conflict systems unaddressed and reinforced a pattern of state-led political violence. In South Sudan, the ARCSS is described as having failed due to poor implementation and a 'winner-takes-all' political framework that incentivized continued violent competition for power.

The February 2019 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the election of four new members to the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC), the 2019 AU chairmanship of Egypt, and South Africa's upcoming 2020 chairmanship. It also analyzes the viability of a new peace deal in the Central African Republic, the humanitarian focus on refugees in 2019, and the escalating political crisis in Sudan.

This November 2018 report from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes recent activities of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC), focusing on institutional reforms led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, political instability in Somalia, the 2018 elections in Madagascar, and the fragile peace process in South Sudan.

This report analyzes the legal and political consequences of Malawi's June 2012 decision to refuse hosting the African Union (AU) Summit because the AU insisted on the invitation of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The document examines how Malawi balanced its international legal obligations and its need to regain Western donor support against its relationship with the AU.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes two distinct security and political crises: the escalating violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) involving the M23 rebel group and Rwandan influence, and the economic instability and civil unrest in Sudan under President Omar al-Bashir.

This research paper by Daniel Large for the South African Institute of International Affairs examines China's engagement in Sudan between the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the independence of South Sudan in July 2011. It analyzes how Beijing transitioned from a predominantly bilateral, oil-driven relationship with Khartoum to a more complex, multifaceted engagement that included diplomatic and development efforts in Southern Sudan and peacekeeping in Darfur.

This research paper by Petrus de Kock for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict in Sudan, focusing on the relationship between the central state in Khartoum and its marginalised peripheries. Written in June 2011, the document analyzes how the struggle for both high-level resources (oil) and low-level subsistence resources (land and water) has shaped the country's political landscape, leading to two civil wars and the eventual independence of Southern Sudan in July 2011.

This policy briefing examines how the governance of oil resources contributed to the secession of Southern Sudan. It argues that the failure of the National Congress Party (NCP) to ensure fair revenue sharing, transparency, and local community development convinced Southern Sudanese that they would benefit more from an independent state than from a united Sudan.

This research paper analyzes the geopolitical and economic complexities surrounding the potential independence of Southern Sudan following its 2011 referendum. It highlights the critical interdependence between Juba and Khartoum, particularly regarding oil infrastructure, border demarcation, and regional stability in the Nile Basin.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the security challenges and potential scenarios surrounding the January 9, 2011, referendum on South Sudan's right to secede from Sudan. It examines the political dynamics between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the risks of a return to war, and the roles of regional and international actors in maintaining stability during the transition.

This research paper explores the complexities of resource governance in Africa, examining how the extraction of minerals and oil often triggers conflict driven by greed and grievance. The author argues for a transition from violent political struggle to a discourse of cooperation and the creation of transparent institutional structures to ensure that resource wealth benefits local communities and national development rather than fueling instability.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the fragile implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan as of May 2007. It details significant failures in security arrangements, the lack of a functioning population census, and the political tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of planned national elections.

This report by Ayesha Kajee of the South African Institute of International Affairs analyzes the failure of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Darfur, Sudan. It details the inadequacy of the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission, the Sudanese government's resistance to UN intervention, and the complex drivers of the conflict, including ethnic tensions and the politics of natural resources.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the state of Sudan eighteen months after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on 5 January 2005. It analyzes the fragility of the alliance between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the impact of Dr. John Garang's death on the 'New Sudan' vision, and the critical challenges regarding the demarcation of the Abyei boundary. The document highlights how peripheral regions like Darfur and the Beja area continue to experience instability, threatening the overall implementation of the peace process.