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The document examines the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict in Sudan, arguing that the centralisation of power in Khartoum and the economic neglect of peripheral regions created a pattern of resistance. It distinguishes between the 'high politics' of oil, which fueled the second civil war and secessionist movements, and the 'low politics' of subsistence resources, such as land and water, which continue to drive local-level violence between pastoralists and farmers. The author concludes that the stability of both Northern and Southern Sudan depends on their ability to move away from elite-driven power concentration and establish inclusive governance and resource-sharing frameworks.

The document examines the complex interdependence between Northern and Southern Sudan as the South moves toward independence. It highlights the critical role of oil co-management, as Southern Sudan derives 98% of its income from oil exports that must travel through Northern infrastructure. The author argues that while the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) provided a path to secession, significant risks remain, including unresolved border disputes in Abyei, the potential for continued insurgency in the North, and the fragile internal governance of the South. Regionally, the document notes the potential for a new independent South Sudan to shift the balance of power within the Nile Basin Initiative, potentially challenging Egypt's historical dominance over Nile water rights.

The seminar highlighted the economic interdependence of Northern and Southern Sudan, noting that while oil and water resources are critical for the viability of both regions, they could serve as unifying factors for peace. Key challenges identified include the governance of the oil sector, the distribution of Nile basin water, the status of the Abyei region, and the presence of Darfur rebels in the South.

The document analyzes the mediation efforts of Thabo Mbeki, chair of the AU High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan, in negotiations between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). It outlines four potential post-referendum scenarios ranging from complete separation to a unified Sudan, while highlighting critical challenges such as oil governance, border disputes, and the risk of unilateral actions. The brief emphasizes that the outcome of the referendum will serve as a test case for the African Union's approach to secession and colonial borders across the continent.