Thabo Mbeki and the ‘Long Talk’ to Southern Sudan’s Referendum

The document analyzes the mediation efforts of Thabo Mbeki, chair of the AU High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan, in negotiations between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). It outlines four potential post-referendum scenarios ranging from complete separation to a unified Sudan, while highlighting critical challenges such as oil governance, border disputes, and the risk of unilateral actions. The brief emphasizes that the outcome of the referendum will serve as a test case for the African Union's approach to secession and colonial borders across the continent.

• Thabo Mbeki, acting as chief mediator for the African Union (AU) High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan, is leading negotiations to address structural imbalances in the Sudanese state that caused two civil wars since 1956. These talks, based on the June 2010 Mekelle Memorandum of Understanding, are organized into four working groups focusing on security, citizenship, international treaties/legal issues, and financial, economic, and natural resources issues.
• Mbeki has proposed four distinct scenarios for the relationship between Northern and Southern Sudan after the January 2011 referendum: 1) complete separation into two independent states with severed ties; 2) two independent states with an open border and a cooperation framework; 3) a confederalist option where two independent states share government institutions; and 4) a unified Sudan focusing on Southern development and the stabilization of Darfur.
• Oil governance is a primary source of potential tension, as the government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) has indicated it will conduct a comprehensive review of all oil contracts if it achieves independence. This is particularly critical given that oil exports account for 90% of the GoSS's foreign earnings.
• The referendum process faces significant short-term logistical and political hurdles, including a tight timeline for voter registration starting November 14, the lack of a special referendum for the Abyei region, and ongoing disputes over the exact North-South border location.
• The potential secession of Southern Sudan is viewed as a critical test case for the African Union regarding the management of internal conflicts within colonial borders, with implications for other territories seeking independence, such as Somaliland, the Ogaden in Ethiopia, and Katanga in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• International actors, including the UN Secretary-General, have warned against unilateral actions regarding unity or secession. Meanwhile, countries like Egypt and China have increased engagement with the government of Southern Sudan in Juba to prepare for the possibility of independence.

APA

de Kock, P. (2010). Thabo Mbeki and the ‘Long Talk’ to Southern Sudan’s Referendum. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Policy-Briefing-25.pdf

Chicago

de Kock, Petrus. Thabo Mbeki and the ‘Long Talk’ to Southern Sudan’s Referendum. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2010. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Policy-Briefing-25.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Kock |first1=Petrus |title=Thabo Mbeki and the ‘Long Talk’ to Southern Sudan’s Referendum |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=25 November 2010 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Policy-Briefing-25.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dekock2010thabo, author = {de Kock, Petrus}, title = {{Thabo Mbeki and the ‘Long Talk’ to Southern Sudan’s Referendum}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2010}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Policy-Briefing-25.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }