Peace & Security Council Report

The March 2025 Peace & Security Council Report analyzes critical instability in South Sudan and Sudan, the African Union's (AU) struggles to manage post-coup transitions in several member states, and the shortcomings of AU election observer missions in 2024. It calls for the Peace and Security Council (PSC) to adopt more risk-based, high-level engagement strategies and improve internal coordination to prevent the fragmentation of states and the entrenchment of military juntas.

• South Sudan is facing a critical risk of transition collapse following the house arrest of First Vice-President Riek Machar on 26 March 2025. The crisis is driven by deep mistrust between President Salva Kiir and Machar, unilateral government reshuffles, and a severe economic downturn where oil production—which provides 90% of national revenue—fell by approximately 68% between December 2024 and January 2025.
• The conflict in Sudan is evolving toward potential national fragmentation, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recapturing territories and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) establishing a parallel government. The AU risks 'sleepwalking' into a division of the country if it continues to pursue a unified Sudan strategy that is disconnected from ground realities, such as the RSF's proposal for a parallel administration.
• The African Union is struggling to restore constitutional order in countries experiencing post-coup transitions, specifically Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. Challenges include the inability to compel coup leaders to follow AU decisions, a lack of coordination between AU organs (PSC, ECOSOCC, and APRM), and the tendency of juntas to unilaterally extend transition periods or run for office despite continental prohibitions.
• AU election observer missions (EOMs) in 2024 failed to anticipate post-electoral violence in Mozambique and challenges in Tunisia due to structural weaknesses. Key issues include the cessation of long-term observation due to resource limits, a uniform deployment model that ignores the fragility of the environment (e.g., observing only 1.06% of polling stations in Mozambique), and a tendency in reports to downplay critical failures to avoid political sensitivity.
• The Peace and Security Council (PSC) is hampered by a small secretariat, a lack of predictable financing for the AU Peace Fund, and a tendency to issue numerous communiques without the capacity for follow-through. To improve effectiveness, it is suggested that the PSC appoint high-level special envoys (such as former heads of state) to engage with suspended states and adopt a streamlined agenda focused on core issues.

APA

Okello, M., Soumahoro, M., Tadesse, S., Mahdi, M., Simakoloyi, Z., & Atta-Asamoah, A. (2025). Peace & Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1744187487477-PSC-Report-177.pdf

Chicago

Okello, Moses, Moussa Soumahoro, Selam Tadesse, Maram Mahdi, Zenge Simakoloyi, and Andrews Atta-Asamoah. Peace & Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1744187487477-PSC-Report-177.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{okello2025peace, author = {Okello, Moses and Soumahoro, Moussa and Tadesse, Selam and Mahdi, Maram and Simakoloyi, Zenge and Atta-Asamoah, Andrews}, title = {{Peace \& Security Council Report}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1744187487477-PSC-Report-177.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }