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The report argues that the Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) is failing due to a lack of government political will, leading to increased ethnic violence and insecurity. It critiques the uncoordinated efforts of international and African mediators, which have allowed the South Sudanese government to manipulate external actors. The authors suggest that the AU can improve peace prospects by insisting on a ceasefire as a precondition for the national dialogue, ensuring the dialogue is neutral and inclusive, and coordinating a unified strategic approach between Northern and Southern external partners.

The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

The document outlines the evolution of China-Africa relations from early diplomatic ties to a complex modern partnership. It highlights the role of FOCAC as a primary vehicle for cooperation, the shift toward a 'New Normal' characterized by slowing economic growth and commodity price drops, and China's increasing involvement in African peace and security, marking a departure from its traditional 'non-interference' policy.

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The document examines the infrastructure financing gap in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the distinct needs of low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). While MDBs provide low-interest loans and technical expertise, they face competition from private financiers and bilateral investors. LICs struggle with indebtedness and declining official development assistance, often resorting to expensive private loans, whereas MICs leverage domestic markets and attract more private investment. Common challenges across the continent include a lack of technical skills for public-private partnerships, a reliance on single commodities, and overly bureaucratic MDB approval processes. The author concludes that MDBs must move away from treating Africa as a monolith and instead adopt country-specific strategies.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, with 100 countries representing 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions having ratified it. COP22 and the first meeting of the CMA are tasked with developing operational rules for transparency, progress monitoring, and ramping up ambition to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius. Key points of contention include the verification of national commitments and the insufficiency of pledges to meet the $100 billion climate finance goal for developing countries by 2020. South Africa has ratified the agreement and set an emissions reduction target of 398–614 MtCO2e for 2025–2030, though this is largely conditional on external assistance and complicated by a continued reliance on coal and budgetary restraints.

The report examines Qatar's strategic engagement in the Horn of Africa, driven by a desire for international significance and regional autonomy from Saudi Arabia and Iran. It highlights a highly centralised, personalised decision-making process led by the emir, which often bypasses formal diplomatic institutions. While Qatar has successfully mediated between Eritrea and Djibouti, its efforts in Darfur are characterised as a failure due to a lack of contextual understanding and political leverage. The document details Qatar's use of financial wealth, military alliances with the US and Turkey, and the Al Jazeera network as primary instruments of influence.

The document analyzes the state of democracy in Africa, arguing that while electoral democracy has increased since 1989, it is often constrained by neopatrimonialism and a lack of governance capacity. It explores the 'sequencing debate' regarding whether democracy precedes or follows economic development, noting that while authoritarian models have sometimes delivered rapid growth, long-term human development is robustly linked to high-quality electoral democracy. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, the author forecasts that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy could significantly increase Africa's GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2070 compared to an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario.

The paper analyzes the diversity of (I)NDCs across target types, sectoral coverage, and greenhouse gas scopes, finding that while economy-wide absolute targets facilitate easier accounting, only 18 (I)NDCs (covering 41% of global emissions) currently employ them.

The report argues that President Yoweri Museveni uses Uganda's role as a regional security provider to deflect international criticism of his domestic democratic decay. It details the use of patronage and repression to maintain power, the personalized nature of Ugandan foreign policy, and the strategic use of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) in Somalia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The document examines China's use of large-scale infrastructure projects in Africa as a tool of economic statecraft to challenge Western-led global norms and promote a 'democratised' global order. It analyzes the role of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and compares African initiatives with similar Chinese regional forums in the Arab world, Central Asia, and Latin America. Despite a slowing domestic economy and falling commodity prices affecting resource-rich African states, the author contends that China's strategic geopolitical goals ensure the continued resilience of its African investments.

The document analyzes China's transition from a non-interference policy to a more active role in African peace and security, driven by the need to protect its economic interests and a desire to establish itself as a 'responsible great power'. It contrasts Chinese and Western interpretations of human rights and peacebuilding, noting China's preference for socio-economic rights and state-led stability. While China has increased its UN peacekeeping contributions and partnered with the African Union, the report notes a contradiction in its role as a major arms supplier to the continent.

The paper finds that climate actions across examined INDCs align with 154 of the 169 SDG targets, demonstrating significant potential for mutual benefits between climate and development agendas. While global alignment is high, the authors note that few countries explicitly referenced SDGs in their INDCs, often due to separate institutional oversight between environment and development ministries. Case studies of Colombia and Uganda show high goal-level alignment, though target-level alignment varies based on national priorities. The document advocates for a 'whole-of-government' approach to maximize resources and avoid implementation silos.

The East African region has discovered vast oil and gas reserves, but social and economic benefits remain unrealised due to regulatory disputes, infrastructure hurdles, and poor governance. Uganda has opted for a pipeline route through Tanzania over Kenya due to cost and security concerns. Mozambique faces severe financial instability and debt crises that threaten its LNG projects. Across the region, a lack of transparency and limited civil liberties hinder the effective implementation of accountability frameworks like the EITI.

The paper estimates that Chinese financiers provided US$86.3 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises between 2000 and 2014, a figure lower than many common beliefs. The authors argue that Chinese lending is driven by business interests—specifically generating construction contracts for Chinese firms—rather than a primary desire to secure natural resources. While transportation and energy are the largest sectors receiving funds, approximately one-third of the loans are secured by commodities or exports to mitigate risk in unstable environments. The authors warn that while a debt crisis has not yet occurred, rising debt levels and the unlikely nature of policy bank debt cancellation pose future risks.

The paper examines the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a catalyst for Ethiopia's transition toward a low-carbon, 'green' economy and its ambition to become a primary electricity exporter in East Africa. It details the dam's technical specifications, its integration into Ethiopia's Growth and Transformation Plans, and the role of regional bodies like the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) in facilitating energy trade. The author argues that while the GERD offers a significant opportunity for regional integration, its success depends on overcoming hydro-hegemonic tensions with downstream states, improving trans-boundary environmental assessments, and harmonizing national energy policies across the region.

The document analyzes the shift in Indian foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, moving toward a more proactive and assertive 'geo-economic' approach. It examines how this strategy integrates Africa into India's broader geostrategic space, stretching from the Suez to the Pacific, and evaluates the outcomes of the third India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS III). The authors argue that while India seeks to enhance its soft power and energy security, the relationship must evolve from a focus on Indian-sourced credit lines to partnerships that support African industrialization and manufacturing.

The document presents the Transnational Climate Impacts (TCI) Index, which measures country-level exposure to climate risks transmitted across borders. It identifies four primary risk pathways—biophysical, finance, people, and trade—and argues that globalization makes even wealthy, low-vulnerability countries susceptible to transnational climate shocks. The authors advocate for integrating these risks into national adaptation plans and UNFCCC processes to enhance global cooperation and adaptation finance.

The document examines climate information services in BRACED countries, noting that while access is increasing, end-users struggle with data quality, inappropriate spatial scales, and poor communication. It details regional weather drivers like the ITCZ in Africa and the monsoon in Asia, and argues for a service-oriented approach that integrates localized, two-way communication into resilience programming to improve decision-making at the community level.