African futures: key trends to 2035

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes major demographic, economic, technological, urban, and socio-political transitions in Africa through 2035. Using the International Futures forecasting system, the authors highlight a general positive trend but warn that rapid population growth, fragile democratic foundations, and infrastructure gaps may compound poverty and instability if not addressed by strategic governance and investment.

• Africa's population is growing faster than any other region in the world and is projected to increase from approximately 1.2 billion to over 1.8 billion by 2035, representing a roughly 50% increase. This growth will put significant pressure on governments to provide healthcare, education, housing, and infrastructure.
• Sub-Saharan Africa's population will remain predominantly young, with half of its citizens expected to be under 21 years old by 2035. While this could provide a demographic dividend, the region is unlikely to enter this phase until the second half of the century due to high fertility rates, and failure to invest in human capital and job creation increases the risk of social instability.
• Economic growth in Africa will be heterogeneous, with East and West Africa expected to grow most rapidly and North Africa the slowest. While some agricultural exporters like Ethiopia, Rwanda, Senegal, and Côte d’Ivoire show growth rates similar to Asia's fastest economies, oil-dependent nations such as Nigeria, Angola, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea remain highly vulnerable to global price shocks.
• Despite a decrease in the percentage of the population living in poverty, the absolute number of Africans in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per day) is projected to rise, potentially increasing by as many as 170 million people by 2035 compared to 2016 levels.
• Africa's urban population is the fastest growing globally, and by 2030, six cities—Cairo, Lagos, Kinshasa, Johannesburg, Luanda, and Dar es Salaam—will each have more than 10 million inhabitants. Rapid urbanization without corresponding economic development is likely to increase the number of urban poor and create 'hotbeds for violence' in informal areas.
• While high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s, there is an increase in the number of violent incidents, particularly riots and protests, which accounted for nearly 40% of total conflict events in 2016. There is also a rising trend in the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and a shift toward political and communal militias as primary actors.
• Popular support for democracy remains strong in Africa, defying global trends of decline. However, democratic foundations are fragile; only 11% of Africans live in a full or flawed democracy according to the EIU, and many countries face barriers such as neopatrimonialism and the extension of presidential term limits in places like Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). African futures: key trends to 2035. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. African futures: key trends to 2035. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=African futures: key trends to 2035 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndafrican, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{African futures: key trends to 2035}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }