African futures

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

• Africa's population is projected to grow by approximately 50% between 2017 and 2035, increasing from 1.2 billion to over 1.8 billion people. This growth will place significant stress on governments to provide healthcare, education, housing, and infrastructure.
• Low-income and lower-middle-income African countries are unlikely to experience a demographic dividend—where the working-age population outweighs dependents—until the second half of the century due to high fertility rates.
• Economic growth will be uneven across the continent; East and West Africa are expected to grow most rapidly, while North Africa will grow the slowest. Oil-dependent economies, specifically Nigeria, Angola, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea, remain highly vulnerable to global price shocks.
• The absolute number of Africans living in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per day) is forecast to rise, with potentially 170 million more extremely poor people by 2035 compared to 2016, even if the overall percentage of the population in poverty decreases.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest access to basic infrastructure globally. While improvements are expected by 2035, the region will continue to lag behind other developing areas, particularly regarding electricity and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH).
• Rapid urbanisation is occurring, with six African cities—Cairo, Lagos, Kinshasa, Johannesburg, Luanda, and Dar es Salaam—expected to become megacities with over 10 million inhabitants by 2030. This trend may compound structural challenges and increase political violence in urban areas.
• While high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s, there is an increase in the frequency of violent incidents, specifically riots and protests, which accounted for nearly 40% of total conflict events in 2016.
• Public support for democracy is robust, with over two-thirds of surveyed Africans preferring it. However, actual democratic governance is limited; according to the EIU, only 11% of Africans live in a full or flawed democracy.

APA

Bello-Schünemann, J., Cilliers, J., Donnenfeld, Z., Aucoin, C., & Porter, A. (2017). African futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf

Chicago

Bello-Schünemann, Julia, Jakkie Cilliers, Zachary Donnenfeld, Ciara Aucoin, and Alex Porter. African futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bello-Schünemann |first1=Julia |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Donnenfeld |first3=Zachary |last4=Aucoin |first4=Ciara |last5=Porter |first5=Alex |title=African futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{belloschnemann2017african, author = {Bello-Schünemann, Julia and Cilliers, Jakkie and Donnenfeld, Zachary and Aucoin, Ciara and Porter, Alex}, title = {{African futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief105.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }