Democratise or disintegrate

The report argues that the Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) is failing due to a lack of government political will, leading to increased ethnic violence and insecurity. It critiques the uncoordinated efforts of international and African mediators, which have allowed the South Sudanese government to manipulate external actors. The authors suggest that the AU can improve peace prospects by insisting on a ceasefire as a precondition for the national dialogue, ensuring the dialogue is neutral and inclusive, and coordinating a unified strategic approach between Northern and Southern external partners.

• The Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) is widely viewed as failing, with stakeholders suggesting that the government is ignoring agreed-upon provisions while only implementing its own reservations.
• The South Sudanese government's decision to create 28 new states in October 2015, contrary to IGAD's resistance, has heightened ethnic tensions and is viewed by some as a method to extend the control of the Dinka-majority government.
• International mediation efforts have been undermined by a lack of strategic coordination between Northern and Southern actors, enabling the government to 'forum shop' and manipulate different donor responses.
• The proposed national dialogue is viewed with skepticism by some as a tactic to divert attention from the necessary reforms and the implementation of the ARCISS.
• The Regional Protection Force (RPF), proposed with a strength of 4,000 soldiers to supplement the 13,000-strong UNMISS, is intended to stabilise Juba, but its ability to protect civilians from government abuses and potential genocide is questioned.
• The AU is urged to ensure the national dialogue is inclusive and fair by insisting on a ceasefire as a prerequisite, extending the dialogue's duration beyond the proposed four months to one or two years, and including those in exile.

APA

Lucey, A., & Kumalo, L. (2017). Democratise or disintegrate. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear11.pdf

Chicago

Lucey, Amanda, and Liezelle Kumalo. Democratise or disintegrate. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lucey |first1=Amanda |last2=Kumalo |first2=Liezelle |title=Democratise or disintegrate |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lucey2017democratise, author = {Lucey, Amanda and Kumalo, Liezelle}, title = {{Democratise or disintegrate}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }