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The report analyzes Africa's unique governance trajectory, noting that the territorial state was a late colonial imposition. It details how slavery and the Cold War hindered state formation and discusses the subsequent waves of democratisation, highlighting a significant gap between electoral and liberal democracy on the continent.

Libya is an upper-middle-income country in North Africa characterized by a vast desert interior and a densely populated Mediterranean coast. Its economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which provides over 90% of government revenues and export earnings, though output is volatile due to political instability. Since the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime, the country has faced political fragmentation, recurring civil conflict, and a contested hybrid governance system with parallel institutions in the east and west. Geographically, Libya serves as a strategic transit point for migration toward Europe, a role that heavily impacts the country.

The 2022 U.S. midterm elections resulted in a divided government with a Republican-controlled House and a Democratic-controlled Senate. The document argues that this political landscape necessitates a focus on bipartisan, 'election-proof' policies and the effective implementation of existing landmark laws like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. It highlights specific funding allocations for carbon capture, hydrogen, and nuclear energy, while emphasizing the role of the EPA in finalizing methane regulations and the capacity of 17 states with aligned governors and legislatures to pursue net-zero goals by 2050.

The report argues that Ethiopia's political transition since 2018 has been undermined by escalating inter-ethnic and communal violence. This instability is driven by a combination of militant ethno-nationalism, deep ideological divides between pan-Ethiopianism and ethnonationalism, and rivalries among political elites who mobilise the masses. The document highlights the role of state fragility, where institutional indifference, incompetence, and the complicity of some officials have allowed conflicts to proliferate. Specific regional tensions are detailed, including disputes over autonomy in the SNNP region and racial and economic grievances in Benishangul Gumuz. The report concludes that stability requires a comprehensive political settlement, an inclusive national dialogue, and the professionalisation of security forces to dismantle illicit arms networks.

South Africa demonstrated strong leadership as AU chair by coordinating a continental response to COVID-19, including the establishment of regional task forces and a medical supplies platform. However, this soft power is undermined by persistent institutionalised xenophobia and a 'South Africans first' political discourse that marginalises African migrants. The author argues that domestic treatment of African nationals is a critical indicator of South Africa's leadership potential and warns that economic instability and corruption further exacerbate these internal cleavages.

The paper argues that SADC's integration efforts have been hindered by weak leadership, a lack of enforcement powers in its Secretariat, and a reluctance by member states to cede sovereignty. It suggests that President Ramaphosa's background in mining could drive a future-oriented regional mining strategy, particularly regarding minerals for renewable energy batteries, and that strengthening the SADC Parliament is necessary to ensure regional policies are domesticated into national laws.

The report argues that the Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) is failing due to a lack of government political will, leading to increased ethnic violence and insecurity. It critiques the uncoordinated efforts of international and African mediators, which have allowed the South Sudanese government to manipulate external actors. The authors suggest that the AU can improve peace prospects by insisting on a ceasefire as a precondition for the national dialogue, ensuring the dialogue is neutral and inclusive, and coordinating a unified strategic approach between Northern and Southern external partners.

The document analyzes Nigeria's struggle to maintain its status as a 'regional hegemon' since the return to democracy in 1999. It argues that while Nigeria has a history of assertive 'Africa-centred' foreign policy, this has been eroded by domestic instability, corruption, the Boko Haram insurgency, and a lack of strategic leadership. The author highlights a shift in continental pre-eminence from Nigeria to South Africa and notes that Nigeria's regional influence in West Africa is contested and often dependent on external actors like France. The paper concludes that only a fundamental restructuring of domestic governance and the economy can restore Nigeria's international standing.

The document analyzes the historical and contemporary political engagement of youth in Ethiopia. It traces the influence of the 1960s student movements and the subsequent transition to the EPRDF regime, highlighting the role of youth in the 2018 political transition. It assesses the failures of the post-1991 education system in fostering 21st-century skills and moral character, and warns against the 'weaponization' of social media in spreading hate speech and political polarization. The report specifically examines the 'Qeerroo' and 'Fano' movements, noting their lack of formal structure and susceptibility to political manipulation by elites.

The report evaluates Burundi's democratic transition from 2005 to 2009. While the 2005 elections ended a decade of civil war and established a power-sharing framework, the ruling CNDD-FDD party has since consolidated power by marginalizing the opposition, repressing civil society, and undermining constitutional checks and balances. The author describes the regime as a 'semi-democracy' and warns that these governance failures, combined with institutional weakness and corruption, could threaten the country's stability ahead of the 2010 elections.

The document analyzes Burundi's transition from a devastating civil war (1994-2005) to a democratic framework established by the 2005 Constitution. While the 2005 elections were generally seen as free and fair, the subsequent dominance of the CNDD-FDD party has led to a 'semi-democratic' state. The author identifies several critical pitfalls, including the ruling party's reluctance to share power, the repression of political opposition and civil society, and weak state institutional capacity. The paper concludes with recommendations for the government, parliament, and international community to foster a political climate conducive to the 2010 elections and long-term stability.

The document examines Russia's progress in meeting Kyoto Protocol compliance requirements and the delays in establishing a domestic Joint Implementation (JI) approval system. It highlights a general lack of political priority for climate change within Russia, where the regime is often viewed as a tool for wealth redistribution. While institutional compliance is nearing completion, inter-ministerial conflict and uncertainties over property rights hinder the launch of JI projects. The paper also notes that domestic debate on post-2012 climate positions has not yet begun, despite Russia's role as the world's third-largest emitter.

The document analyzes the IGAD-led peace process between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), highlighting the critical role of US pressure and the Machakos Protocol. It warns that the initial 'elite-driven' and 'secretive' approach must be replaced by transparency and democratic engagement to prevent instability from marginalized groups, such as the SSDF and the SLM/A in Darfur. The author emphasizes that internal stability is inextricably linked to resolving contentious bilateral relations with neighbors, particularly Eritrea and Uganda, and calls for a comprehensive regional framework to secure the peace.

The document analyzes the 2002 elections in Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Zambia, contrasting Lesotho's successful consensus-based approach with the constitutional and legal instability seen in Zimbabwe and Zambia. It highlights systemic issues in Zimbabwe, including a 'constitutional vacuum', flawed voter registration, and state-sponsored violence, while noting that Zambia faced challenges with media control and restrictive registration processes. The author argues that while citizens in these nations show a strong belief in multiparty democracy, the lack of harmonization between national laws and SADC Norms and Standards for conducting elections remains a significant barrier to governance.

The briefing examines the Mo Ibrahim Prize, an award for African leaders who meet strict democratic and constitutional criteria. It discusses the surprise decision by the Prize Committee to not select a winner in a given year, despite several leaders having recently left office. The author explores whether the prize effectively incentivizes good governance and suggests that the lack of a winner may reflect a receding democracy or the systemic challenges leaders face. The document concludes by suggesting the prize expand its scope to include civil society and individuals to better support democratic entrenchment.

The document examines the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through a series of expert perspectives. Key themes include the failure of Western 'exceptionalism' in diplomacy, the systemic human rights abuses in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the critical role of water scarcity as a driver of intra-state conflict. It provides detailed analysis of the 'bottom-up' stabilization efforts in Iraq via local ceasefires, the strategic threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, and the use of public diplomacy by non-state actors like Hizbollah. Additionally, it addresses the stalled peace process between Israel and Palestine and the specific challenges of the Cyprus division.