Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the drivers of inter-ethnic and communal violence in Ethiopia between October 2019 and the end of 2020. It identifies a combination of militant ethno-nationalism, ideological divides between pan-Ethiopianism and ethnonationalism, and state fragility as primary causes of instability during the country's political transition.

• The liberalisation of the political space starting in late 2018 contributed to a proliferation of violence because it occurred while political divisions were deepening and militant ethno-national sentiments were increasing.
• Violence between October 2019 and the end of 2020 was primarily driven by inter-group tensions, perceived security threats, and competing demands for resources, autonomy, and economic control, as well as racial, religious, and secessionist aspirations.
• State institutions failed to prevent or stop violence due to fragility, incompetence, and indifference, with some officials actively complicit in creating or prolonging conflicts for personal or ideological reasons.
• Ethiopia is caught in a deep ideological divide between ethnonationalists, who view the state's history as one of domination over oppressed nationalities, and pan-Ethiopianists, who view the institutionalisation of ethnicity as a ploy to undermine a united Ethiopia.
• The formation of the Prosperity Party (PP) caused significant political realignment and antagonism, notably leading to the withdrawal of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and creating suspicions that the administration is innately unitarist.
• Political elites have mobilised the masses by using 'group worth' and identity politics, leading to severe clashes in regions such as Oromia, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, and the Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s (SNNP) region.
• State efforts to stem violence through repressive tactics in certain regions often backfired, resulting in more deaths, loss of property, and an increase in clashes.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndconflict, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }