Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020

The report argues that Ethiopia's political transition since 2018 has been undermined by escalating inter-ethnic and communal violence. This instability is driven by a combination of militant ethno-nationalism, deep ideological divides between pan-Ethiopianism and ethnonationalism, and rivalries among political elites who mobilise the masses. The document highlights the role of state fragility, where institutional indifference, incompetence, and the complicity of some officials have allowed conflicts to proliferate. Specific regional tensions are detailed, including disputes over autonomy in the SNNP region and racial and economic grievances in Benishangul Gumuz. The report concludes that stability requires a comprehensive political settlement, an inclusive national dialogue, and the professionalisation of security forces to dismantle illicit arms networks.

• The liberalisation of the political space after 2018, occurring alongside rising militant ethno-national sentiments and deepening political divisions, contributed to a proliferation of violence across the country.
• Violence between October 2019 and late 2020 was primarily driven by inter-group tensions, perceived security threats, and competing demands for autonomy, economic resources, and secessionist aspirations.
• State institutions failed to prevent or stop violence due to fragility, indifference, and in some instances, the active complicity of officials who incited conflict or impeded mediation for personal job security.
• The Ethiopian political landscape is split between two competing ideologies: ethnonationalism, which views the state's history as one of domination over oppressed nationalities, and pan-Ethiopianism, which views the institutionalisation of ethnicity as a ploy to undermine a united Ethiopia.
• The formation of the Prosperity Party (PP) and its 'Medemer' philosophy created suspicions that the administration is unitarist, leading to antagonism from groups like the TPLF and fueling conflicts over 'ideological purity' in Oromia.
• In Benishangul Gumuz, violence is driven by racial divisions based on skin tone (tikur vs key), economic deprivation, and fears that the government intends to scrap self-administration in favor of an imperial mode of rule.
• Political elites have used the concept of 'group worth' to mobilise the masses, linking individual value to the group's status to justify violence against 'out-groups'.
• State responses to violence have often been counterproductive, with repressive tactics and heavy-handed security interventions leading to increased deaths and property loss, particularly in the Wolayta zone.

APA

Yared, T. (2021). Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf

Chicago

Yared, Tegbaru. Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020. Institute for Security Studies, 2021. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yared |first1=Tegbaru |title=Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2021 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yared2021conflict, author = {Yared, Tegbaru}, title = {{Conflict dynamics in Ethiopia: 2019–2020}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-44.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }