The future of democracy in Africa

The document analyzes the state of democracy in Africa, arguing that while electoral democracy has increased since 1989, it is often constrained by neopatrimonialism and a lack of governance capacity. It explores the 'sequencing debate' regarding whether democracy precedes or follows economic development, noting that while authoritarian models have sometimes delivered rapid growth, long-term human development is robustly linked to high-quality electoral democracy. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, the author forecasts that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy could significantly increase Africa's GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2070 compared to an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario.

• Democracy in Africa is currently hindered by three primary factors: a lack of governance capacity, thin quality of electoral democracy, and the presence of neopatrimonialism, which undermines electoral systems.
• There is a significant gap between the holding of regular elections and the existence of substantive liberal democracy; many African elections are deceptive events used by elites to ensure their own re-election through rigging, interference, and misuse of state resources.
• Research suggests that the 'electoral' component of democracy—specifically clean elections and the selection of leaders—has a strong positive effect on human development, such as reducing infant mortality, particularly in poor countries.
• The document argues that neither democracy nor good governance is a strict pre-condition for early economic growth, noting that some authoritarian development models in Asia and Africa have outperformed electoral democracies in the short term.
• Neopatrimonial regimes are categorized into 'developmental patrimonialism' (centralized systems that provide coherence and better long-term outcomes, e.g., Rwanda and Ethiopia) and 'competitive neopatrimonialism' (decentralized systems where politics focuses on who governs rather than policy, e.g., Kenya and Nigeria).
• Data from multiple indices show that while Africa's democracy levels were flat or declining until 1989, they have followed a sustained upward trajectory since the end of the Cold War, with the gap between African and global democracy scores narrowing from approximately 31% in the late 1980s to 7% by 2014/5.
• Forecasting to 2070 indicates that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy would result in a significantly larger economy than an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario, with Africa's GDP potentially being 50% larger (US$ 11,581 bn) by 2070.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2016). The future of democracy in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af19.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. The future of democracy in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af19.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=The future of democracy in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af19.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2016future, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The future of democracy in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af19.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }