The east african energy frontier, a decade on

The East African region has discovered vast oil and gas reserves, but social and economic benefits remain unrealised due to regulatory disputes, infrastructure hurdles, and poor governance. Uganda has opted for a pipeline route through Tanzania over Kenya due to cost and security concerns. Mozambique faces severe financial instability and debt crises that threaten its LNG projects. Across the region, a lack of transparency and limited civil liberties hinder the effective implementation of accountability frameworks like the EITI.

• Uganda has selected Tanzania over Kenya for its crude oil export pipeline route, citing lower costs, better security, and faster operational timelines. The Tanzanian route is projected to be up to $1 billion cheaper and avoid protected wildlife areas, whereas the Kenyan route would cross 167km of protected zones.
• Uganda's oil sector has been marked by regulatory and tax disputes with international companies. Tullow Oil reached a $250 million settlement with the Uganda Revenue Authority in 2015 and was previously awarded $340 million in compensation following a dispute involving Heritage Oil.
• Mozambique is experiencing a severe financial crisis characterized by concealed debt estimated at $1.482 billion, leading to credit rating downgrades and the suspension of contributions from Group of 14 budget-support donors.
• The viability of natural gas projects in the region is threatened by a significant downturn in global LNG prices, which reportedly decreased by 75% over a two-year period, alongside potential future oversupply from the US and Australia.
• Tanzania is positioning itself as a regional energy hub by developing infrastructure, including a $1.2 billion Chinese-financed LNG processing plant in Lindi and a pipeline to supply natural gas to Uganda.
• Efforts to implement transparency standards like the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) are inconsistent. While Tanzania and Mozambique are declared compliant, the former has faced reports of flawed contract awards, and the latter suffers from corruption and bad debts.
• The effectiveness of both international and proposed African-led transparency frameworks (such as the AEIGF) is limited by domestic political environments. Freedom House rates Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique as only 'partly free', suggesting insufficient freedom for civil society and media to hold governments accountable.

APA

Hayman, A. (2016). The east african energy frontier, a decade on. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Policy-Insights-33.pdf

Chicago

Hayman, Ashleigh. The east african energy frontier, a decade on. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2016. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Policy-Insights-33.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hayman |first1=Ashleigh |title=The east african energy frontier, a decade on |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Policy-Insights-33.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hayman2016east, author = {Hayman, Ashleigh}, title = {{The east african energy frontier, a decade on}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Policy-Insights-33.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }