EnErgy DialoguEs in africa: is thE granD Ethiopian rEnaissancE Dam transforming Ethiopia’s rEgional rolE?

This research paper examines the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its potential to transform Ethiopia into a regional energy hub. It analyzes the project's technical specifications, its alignment with Ethiopia's national growth strategies, and the challenges and opportunities for energy cooperation within the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA).

• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a major hydropower project in north-west Ethiopia with an estimated cost of $4.7 billion and an expected capacity of 6,000 megawatts (MW). The project consists of a 145m high roller-compacted concrete dam and a 5km long saddle dam, with a reservoir expected to hold twice the volume of Lake Tana.
• The GERD is a central component of Ethiopia's broader strategy to become Africa's first low-carbon, 'green' economy and a middle-income nation. This vision is supported by the National Energy Policy of 2013 and the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), with the GTP II targeting a national generation capacity of approximately 17,500MW by 2020.
• Ethiopia aims to leverage the GERD to become a major regional electricity exporter, potentially serving as a 'strategic nerve centre' for the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP). While current trades with Sudan and Djibouti are limited to 100MW and 65MW respectively, Ethiopia envisages future exports of 2,000MW to Kenya, 1,200MW to Sudan, and 2,000MW to Egypt.
• The Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) faces significant disparities in installed capacity, with Egypt holding nearly 65% of the pool's capacity, primarily from thermal and oil-fired plants. The EAPP currently has a cumulative capacity of approximately 45,000MW, but is projected to require an additional 140,000MW by 2040.
• The Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA), linking COMESA, the EAC, and SADC, provides a potential framework to harmonize legislative and institutional energy frameworks and link the Eastern and Southern African power pools.
• The development of the GERD has been marked by diplomatic tension and concerns over environmental transparency. While a 2015 trilateral agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan was established to conduct a Trans-boundary Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (TESIA), the process was hindered by the withdrawal of the company Dutch Deltares due to insufficient transparency guarantees.

APA

MAupin, A. (2016). EnErgy DialoguEs in africa: is thE granD Ethiopian rEnaissancE Dam transforming Ethiopia’s rEgional rolE? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Occasional-Paper-228.pdf

Chicago

MAupin, Agathe. EnErgy DialoguEs in africa: is thE granD Ethiopian rEnaissancE Dam transforming Ethiopia’s rEgional rolE? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2016. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Occasional-Paper-228.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAupin |first1=Agathe |title=EnErgy DialoguEs in africa: is thE granD Ethiopian rEnaissancE Dam transforming Ethiopia’s rEgional rolE? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=February 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Occasional-Paper-228.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maupin2016energy, author = {MAupin, Agathe}, title = {{EnErgy DialoguEs in africa: is thE granD Ethiopian rEnaissancE Dam transforming Ethiopia’s rEgional rolE?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Occasional-Paper-228.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }