EASTERN PROMISES: NEW DATA ON CHINESE LOANS IN AFRICA, 2000 TO 2014

The paper estimates that Chinese financiers provided US$86.3 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises between 2000 and 2014, a figure lower than many common beliefs. The authors argue that Chinese lending is driven by business interests—specifically generating construction contracts for Chinese firms—rather than a primary desire to secure natural resources. While transportation and energy are the largest sectors receiving funds, approximately one-third of the loans are secured by commodities or exports to mitigate risk in unstable environments. The authors warn that while a debt crisis has not yet occurred, rising debt levels and the unlikely nature of policy bank debt cancellation pose future risks.

• Between 2000 and 2014, Chinese financiers provided a total of US$86.3 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises. The largest contributor was China Eximbank with US$59.0 billion, followed by China Development Bank with US$13.7 billion, company suppliers' credits at US$7.7 billion, ICBC at US$3.3 billion, and other government/state-owned sources at US$2.5 billion.
• The study challenges several common beliefs regarding Chinese finance, noting that the scale of loans is often overestimated and that China Eximbank does not provide more finance to sub-Saharan Africa than the World Bank. Additionally, the authors find that Chinese lending criteria are not fundamentally different from the World Bank's, as three of the top five recipients for both—Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo—are the same.
• Transportation is the most heavily financed sector at US$24.2 billion, followed by energy (mainly power) at US$17.6 billion, mining/oil at US$9.0 billion, and communication at US$6.5 billion. Within the energy sector, hydropower projects are the largest category, accounting for US$8 billion.
• Contrary to the belief that loans are primarily used to secure natural resources, only 10 percent of loans are directed toward petroleum and mining. However, about 33 percent of the total loan value is secured by commodities or exports of natural resources, a mechanism used to reduce lender risk in poor or unstable countries rather than to acquire ownership of resources.
• Angola is the largest recipient of Chinese loans, totaling US$21.2 billion over the 15-year period. Other top recipients include Ethiopia (US$12.3 billion), Sudan (US$5.6 billion), Kenya (US$5.2 billion), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (US$4.9 billion). These five countries receive over 50 percent of all official Chinese loans to Africa.
• Chinese policy bank loans are preferentially tied to the use of Chinese goods and services. For example, contracts in Ghana required at least 60 percent of business to go to Chinese contractors, while Angola's contracts required 70 percent.
• The authors express concern over rising debt levels and the likelihood of repayment. While the Chinese government has canceled some zero-interest foreign aid loans, it is unlikely to cancel policy bank loans, which are expected to be repaid.

APA

BRAUTIGAM, D., & HWANG, J. (2016). EASTERN PROMISES: NEW DATA ON CHINESE LOANS IN AFRICA, 2000 TO 2014. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CARI_WP4_BrautigamHwangEasternPromises.pdf

Chicago

BRAUTIGAM, DEBORAH, and JYHJONG HWANG. EASTERN PROMISES: NEW DATA ON CHINESE LOANS IN AFRICA, 2000 TO 2014. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2016. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CARI_WP4_BrautigamHwangEasternPromises.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BRAUTIGAM |first1=DEBORAH |last2=HWANG |first2=JYHJONG |title=EASTERN PROMISES: NEW DATA ON CHINESE LOANS IN AFRICA, 2000 TO 2014 |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=April 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CARI_WP4_BrautigamHwangEasternPromises.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brautigam2016eastern, author = {BRAUTIGAM, DEBORAH and HWANG, JYHJONG}, title = {{EASTERN PROMISES: NEW DATA ON CHINESE LOANS IN AFRICA, 2000 TO 2014}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CARI_WP4_BrautigamHwangEasternPromises.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }