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The paper argues for a rapid increase in non-fossil energy production to mitigate climate vulnerability in Africa. It highlights the potential for renewables to reach 750 GW by 2030 and the role of nuclear and hydropower, while noting that fossil fuel sectors remain primary drivers of foreign direct investment. The authors model an 'Energy Policy scenario' for 2050 that increases production across solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro, potentially reducing the number of Africans without electricity by 184 million.

The document introduces investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) as a mechanism allowing foreign investors to bring claims against host states before international tribunals. It highlights that the mining sector is one of the most frequent targets of such claims, which can result in large monetary awards and delay regulatory reforms. The brief details how consent for ISDS is established through investment treaties, domestic laws, and contracts, and notes a growing trend of claims linked to the demand for critical minerals. It concludes with recommendations for governments to manage ISDS risks through inter-agency coordination, thorough documentation, and legal coherence.

The report analyzes the integration of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) into trade policies to enhance market access for developing countries. It identifies two primary forms of integration: direct mandatory compliance and voluntary influence on national policies. Through case studies in Mozambique (cotton), Namibia (horticulture), Suriname (fisheries), and Vietnam (forestry), the report highlights that while VSSs can improve product quality and reputation, implementation is often hindered by high certification costs, limited institutional capacity, and market volatility.

Between 2021 and 2024, 24 major European banks provided US$41.9 billion to companies developing new gas plants, with 63% of this funding coming from seven banks in France and the UK. The report contends that gas power is not a 'transition fuel' but a source of severe air pollution, price volatility, and long-term greenhouse gas emissions lock-in. It highlights that 78% of this financing is directed toward OECD and European countries, where power sectors are expected to be carbon neutral by 2035. The document concludes that banks must immediately end financial services to gas power expansion to align with a 1.5°C warming limit.

The document analyzes a hypothetical 'Demographics and Health scenario' for Africa, projecting that aggressive improvements in health and WaSH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) infrastructure would lead to a healthier, wealthier population by 2043. Key projections include a significant increase in safely managed sanitation and water access, a reduction in infant mortality and fertility rates, and a decrease in the disease burden. Economically, the scenario suggests that these health improvements would boost GDP per capita, particularly in low-income countries, and reduce the number of extremely poor Africans by 41 million compared to the current path, despite a smaller overall population.

The AfCFTA faces significant implementation hurdles due to the extreme economic disparity between member states, which may lead to 'winners and losers' where advanced economies benefit while least developed countries (LDCs) face initial welfare losses. Key challenges include the loss of critical tariff revenues for some governments, weak institutional capacities in LDCs, and limited commitment to the free movement of labour. To mitigate these risks, the agreement employs special and differential treatment, granting LDCs and a specific 'Group of 6' (G6) longer phase-out periods for tariff liberalisation, though the authors argue that additional support from the AU Secretariat and private finance is necessary to bridge the development gap.

The report details the disproportionate burden of climate change on Africa, noting that since 1984, the continent has faced 1,865 climate-related disasters resulting in US$53 billion in losses. It highlights a critical lack of financial protection, with only 9% of disaster losses insured. Regional analysis shows water-related disasters as the primary threat, with severe flooding in East Africa and historic droughts in Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa. The document also links climate change to the spread of diseases like cholera and malaria, and the risk of desertification in the Sahel and West Africa.

The research paper projects that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment—would significantly increase Africa's GDP to US$8.9 trillion by 2043 and reduce extreme poverty to 242 million people. It highlights that while low-income countries like the DR Congo and Mozambique would see the fastest growth, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance reforms are the most effective drivers of per capita income and poverty reduction across the continent.

The research paper examines the role of Africa's natural carbon sinks, particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel, and evaluates the potential for a global carbon tax to fund the continent's energy transition and conservation efforts. It analyzes various carbon pricing scenarios, concluding that a differentiated payment model aligns best with the Paris Agreement's principles of fairness and historical responsibility.

The document examines the necessity of the AfCFTA for overcoming Africa's fragmented markets and limited intra-continental trade. It highlights that success depends on regional value chains, infrastructure investment, and the removal of non-tariff barriers. The authors emphasize that while the AfCFTA is crucial for long-term growth, national governments must manage the short-term political and economic pain of tariff losses and address the challenges of integrating unequal economies.

The report examines the shift in African development from state-led industrialization and the pan-Africanist Lagos Plan of Action (1980) to the market-oriented Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) of the 1980s. It argues that while the Lagos Plan sought collective self-reliance, it failed due to a lack of national integration and monitoring. Conversely, SAPs—driven by the 'Washington Consensus'—forced devaluation, privatization, and spending cuts in health and education, which the author contends led to a 'race to the bottom,' stunted industrialization, and a decline in per capita income between 1980 and 1994.

The report finds that while the percentage of Africans living in extreme poverty has declined since the 1990s, the absolute number of poor people continues to rise due to rapid population growth. Africa is projected to miss the 2030 SDG goal of eliminating extreme poverty, with several countries likely to maintain poverty rates above 50% by that date. The document attributes these challenges to high inequality, over-reliance on natural resources, and bad governance, noting that Sub-Saharan Africa carries the largest global burden of extreme poverty.

The document analyzes the trajectory of Africa's fossil fuel emissions, noting that while the continent currently contributes less than 5% of global emissions, this share is projected to rise to 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path and 15% under the Combined scenario. It identifies a small number of countries—most notably Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa—as the primary drivers of the continent's carbon footprint, with Nigeria projected to become the continent's largest emitter by 2050.

The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.

The document concludes that Africa's current economic path is characterised by low productivity and 'premature deindustrialisation', where labour shifts from subsistence agriculture to low-end informal urban services rather than manufacturing. It highlights a reliance on 'capital-intensive commodity enclaves' that fail to build local value chains or improve broad welfare. To reverse this, the author argues for strategic investments in renewable energy, education, health infrastructure, and digital literacy, alongside the use of the AfCFTA to foster intra-African trade. The text emphasizes that achieving the African Union's Agenda 2063 requires strong governance, gender equity, and international partnerships for financing and technology transfer.

The Gender and Social Inclusion Action Plan (GAP) for the PURE Rural Mozambique Climate Project establishes a framework to address gender-based inequalities in the energy sector. It focuses on mainstreaming gender-transformative interventions across institutional strengthening of FUNAE, mini-grid development, and the deployment of climate-smart PU(R)E solutions. The plan sets specific targets for women's participation, including a goal for 52% of mini-grid and PURE beneficiaries to be women and 15% of local operators to be women. It also implements safeguarding measures against sexual exploitation, abuse, and harassment (SEAH) and gender-based violence (GBV).

The report assesses the intersection of gender inequality and climate vulnerability in rural Mozambique to inform the design of the PURE Rural Mozambique Climate Project. It identifies systemic barriers—including patriarchal social norms, low female literacy (49% nationwide), and limited access to land and credit—that hinder women's participation in the energy sector and their ability to adopt productive technologies. The project aims to deploy 30-40 solar mini-grids and use Results-Based Financing (RBF) to incentivise the uptake of climate-smart equipment. Key strategies include targeting 'time-saving' appliances to reduce women's labour burden, implementing SEAH (Sexual Exploitation, Abuse, and Harassment) safeguards, and linking 5-10% of RBF milestone payments to GESI-specific results, such as the percentage of female mini-grid customers.

The evaluation concludes that the SAP has become operationally ineffective, failing to deliver on its promises of simplification and acceleration. While it has provided unintended value as a 'stepping-stone' for Direct Access Entities (DAEs) to build institutional capacity, it is now virtually indistinguishable from the standard Project Approval Process (PAP). The report recommends discontinuing the SAP in its current form and replacing it with a new, integrated access modality featuring delegated authority and a focus on replicating proven interventions rather than piloting new ideas.

The report examines the challenges and opportunities for African energy exporters facing the EU Methane Regulation, which imposes extraterritorial monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards on imports. While Africa accounts for nearly 13% of global methane emissions, the continent faces significant financing gaps and technical barriers to compliance. The authors argue that while the regulation threatens export revenues, it provides a strategic opportunity to adopt low-cost abatement technologies. Key recommendations include mobilising innovative financing like transition bonds, establishing local independent verification capacity, and harmonising MRV standards to maintain market access to the EU.

The report examines how Africa is trapped in a cycle of debt and fossil fuel dependency, which disproportionately harms women and girls. It argues that the global financial architecture forces African nations into austerity and resource extraction, leading to 'petro-masculinity' and systemic gender-based violence. The authors advocate for a 'feminist decolonial green economy' and a Fossil Fuel Treaty to enable a just transition through debt cancellation and redistributive finance.