Search Climate Insights Directory

The research paper analyzes the shift in Turkey's diaspora policy from treating migrants as a liability to viewing them as strategic assets for 'nation-branding' and public diplomacy. It focuses on Germany as a primary hub for these interactions, detailing how the AKP government uses institutions like the Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB) and the Diyanet to mobilize loyalists while monitoring and suppressing dissidents. The authors argue that these extraterritorial measures, including transnational election campaigns and surveillance, have strained Turkey's diplomatic relations with European host countries and exacerbated polarizations within the diaspora community.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

The document examines the potential for African public pension funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) to address an annual infrastructure investment deficit of $130–$170 billion. While these institutional investors possess long-term horizons and substantial assets—such as South Africa's $318 billion retirement fund industry—actual infrastructure investment remains low due to a preference for traditional assets, a lack of bankable project pipelines, and regulatory constraints. The paper analyzes the landscapes of five countries and identifies key barriers, including a shortage of liquid financial instruments and a lack of internal expertise to appraise complex infrastructure risks. It suggests that capacity building, resource pooling, and early engagement between developers and regulators are essential to stimulate institutional appetite for this asset class.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The WACA ResIP-CCA is a proposed project targeting Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Mauritania, Senegal, and Togo to address vulnerabilities to sea-level rise, flooding, and coastal erosion. With a total indicative cost of USD 382 million, the project aims to protect critical infrastructure and ecosystems in the transport, urban, and natural resources sectors. It combines national-level policy strengthening and capacity building with local-level physical interventions, such as nature-based and hard infrastructure, to benefit approximately 12 million indirect beneficiaries.

The 31st AU summit introduced unprecedented budget scrutiny, reducing the 2019 budget by 12% to US$681 million through 'golden rules' of sustainability and predictability. While the AfCFTA saw five new signatories, ratification remains below the 22-country threshold required for implementation. Institutional reforms continue, including the proposed shift to merit-based appointments for the AU Commission and the integration of NEPAD and APRM into the AU core. Additionally, the report highlights an escalating armed conflict in Cameroon's anglophone regions and lists various Peace and Security Council (PSC) decisions from April to June 2018, including a new focus on the nexus between climate change and security.

The document argues that while the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance provides a normative framework, democratic processes in Africa have largely stagnated in a transitional phase, often trapped in an 'electoral fallacy' where regular elections occur without deep institutional consolidation. It identifies internal pressures—such as the rise of populism, election-related violence, and long-term leadership—and external pressures—including the influence of non-democratic powers like China, Russia, and Turkey, and a 'security-first' doctrine from Western actors—as primary drivers of democratic recession. Despite these challenges, the author notes positive signals such as the increasing number of charter signatories, the role of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), and the effectiveness of ECOWAS in restoring democracy in specific instances. The briefing recommends limiting the concentration of power through term limits and shifting international investment toward domestic democratic processes rather than just regional frameworks.

The report introduces a framework for measuring 'additionality' in climate finance, focusing on whether public investments catalyze activity that would not have occurred under a business-as-usual scenario. It details a qualitative multi-criteria assessment (MCA) for individual projects and a quantitative 'additionality modifier' based on the IESE VCPE Index for portfolio-level analysis. The findings suggest that private equity is a viable instrument for additionality as it often targets high-risk markets where commercial investment is otherwise lacking.

The workshop, organized by the IGF in partnership with the UNDP and OECD, focused on the 'IGF Guide for Governments: Managing Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining'. It combined technical training on strategy development—covering startup, elaboration, and implementation phases—with field visits to mining sites in Eséka and Pouma, Cameroon. Participants identified common regional challenges, including formalization, child labor, environmental degradation, and lack of institutional coordination, while sharing case studies from Cameroon, Guinea, Mauritania, and Morocco.

The assessment identifies a detailed but fragmented legal framework, noting strengths in geological data platforms and a diversified tax system, while highlighting critical gaps in environmental monitoring, the lack of a consolidated mining code, and the recent, largely informal emergence of artisanal mining.

The African Union (AU) has established several legal frameworks to combat terrorism, including the 1999 Algiers Convention and the 2004 Protocol, but implementation is stalled by low ratification rates among member states. Key countries facing terrorism, such as Nigeria and Somalia, have not ratified the 2004 Protocol. The AU's efforts are further undermined by a lack of monitoring systems, severe funding shortages—with member states contributing only 40% of the 2016 budget—and a tendency for international powers like the US and France to bypass the AU in favor of direct bilateral operations with individual states.

The policy brief examines the increasing presence of sub-Saharan African migrants in Algeria and Morocco, noting that while they have not been significantly implicated in terrorism, their precarious socio-economic conditions and exposure to racism create vulnerabilities. It advocates for the operationalisation of regularisation schemes and the adoption of non-coercive PVE strategies based on UN pillars to prevent future radicalisation.

Nigeria faces severe economic water scarcity and climate-driven ecological challenges, including desertification in the north and oil pollution in the Niger Delta. These stressors, compounded by weak governance, have fueled violent conflicts: Boko Haram leverages frustration over water deprivation, ethnic tensions rise in the Middle Belt due to shifting rainfall patterns affecting herders and farmers, and militants in the Niger Delta attack oil infrastructure over land and water rights. The document argues that Nigeria's instability poses risks to U.S. security interests regarding global oil prices, regional extremism, and migration, recommending U.S. support for drought-tolerant seeds, remote sensing for crisis prediction, and improved local water governance.

The document examines youth radicalisation in Africa as a complex phenomenon driven by a combination of 'push' and 'pull' factors. It argues that while religious ideology is often used as a justification, the actual drivers are frequently rooted in political repression, systemic corruption, socio-economic exclusion, and weakened family structures. The paper emphasizes that responses must be nuanced and evidence-based, moving beyond a 'one size fits all' approach to address specific local and structural vulnerabilities.

The document analyzes the dynamics of youth radicalization in Africa, arguing that it is a complex process driven by a combination of 'push' and 'pull' factors rather than a single cause. It highlights how government repression, corruption, high youth unemployment, and social exclusion create vulnerabilities that extremist groups like ISIS, Al-Shabaab, and Boko Haram exploit. The paper emphasizes that while religion is often used as a justification, the root causes are frequently socio-political and economic. It also examines the role of gender, noting that while most recruits are male, women's participation is increasing, often driven by different motivations or forced coercion.

The document examines the interaction between the G-20 and Africa, noting that while South Africa is the only permanent African member, the G-20's agenda significantly impacts the continent. It evaluates the G-20 Development Working Group's (DWG) progress on priorities such as infrastructure, domestic resource mobilisation, and financial inclusion. The author argues that while there is overlap with the AU's Agenda 2063, momentum has been lost in supporting African regional economic integration, and further efforts are needed to leverage G-20 resources for sustainable infrastructure and local capital markets.

The Green Economy Barometer 2016 reports that while the transition to green economies is accelerating—marked by record investments in renewables and a maturing international policy architecture—it remains insufficient in depth and breadth. The report highlights a significant shift in investment toward developing countries and the emergence of ambitious national sectoral targets. However, it argues that structural reform is lacking, as most national plans ignore the informal economy and the needs of the poorest populations. The document concludes that the green economy remains politically fringe and requires a more inclusive narrative to achieve large-scale societal transformation.

Senegal is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and fisheries, and a population concentrated along a coastline exposed to sea level rise. While the government has established coordinating bodies like the National Climate Change Committee and identified priority sectors in its NAPA and INDC, the report finds that climate adaptation is not yet effectively mainstreamed into most national sectoral policies or subnational planning. Current adaptation projects primarily target agriculture, water resources, and disaster risk management, often using ecosystem-based approaches, but gaps remain in the health and tourism sectors.

The document presents the Transnational Climate Impacts (TCI) Index, which measures country-level exposure to climate risks transmitted across borders. It identifies four primary risk pathways—biophysical, finance, people, and trade—and argues that globalization makes even wealthy, low-vulnerability countries susceptible to transnational climate shocks. The authors advocate for integrating these risks into national adaptation plans and UNFCCC processes to enhance global cooperation and adaptation finance.

The report analyzes the intersection of climate change, World Heritage sites, and tourism, arguing that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that degrades the outstanding universal value (OUV) of these sites while simultaneously threatening the tourism economies that depend on them. Through 30 case studies across 29 countries, it demonstrates that impacts range from glacier melt and sea-level rise to increased wildfire regimes and ocean acidification. The document emphasizes that while sustainable tourism can support conservation, unplanned development often increases site vulnerability. It concludes with recommendations for intergovernmental organizations, governments, and site managers to integrate climate science into management plans, reduce tourism's carbon footprint, and empower local and indigenous communities in adaptation efforts.