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The document highlights a significant gap in educational quality in Africa, noting that sub-Saharan Africa consistently underperforms globally in primary and secondary standardized tests. It emphasizes that educational quality has a stronger correlation with economic growth than quantity. The text identifies a 'learning crisis' driven by student unpreparedness due to malnutrition and poverty, ineffective or absent teachers, lack of materials, and poor governance. It also stresses the critical role of early childhood development (ECD) and nutrition in establishing the cognitive foundations necessary for quality learning outcomes.

The report describes a 'narrowing funnel' in sub-Saharan African education, where high initial primary enrolment is offset by significant 'leaks' at each subsequent level, leading to very low tertiary graduation rates. It contrasts these outcomes with North Africa and global benchmarks, noting that sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to miss several 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets. The analysis highlights a growing intergenerational education gap and predicts that the attainment gap between sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions will widen by 2030.

The Agriculture scenario projects a significant increase in Africa's agricultural production, reducing food import dependence and extreme poverty while boosting GDP. By 2043, production could reach 2,167 million metric tons, with Nigeria emerging as the most significant producer. The scenario is expected to reduce the number of extremely poor Africans to 339 million and increase the total economy by US$354 billion compared to the Current Path. However, these gains depend on water availability, climate-driven carbon fertilisation, and the adoption of temperature-tolerant cultivars.

The research finds that an aggressive reduction in gender inequality would significantly increase Africa's GDP, GDP per capita, and human development indices by 2043. The most substantial economic gains are projected in the service sector and in regions with currently high gender gaps, such as North and West Africa. Socially, the Gender scenario is forecast to lift millions out of extreme poverty and reduce the number of stunted children by 6 million compared to the Current Path.

The document outlines a simulated agricultural revolution in Africa based on eight interventions: increasing crop yields, expanding irrigation, increasing water withdrawal, protecting forests, improving supply chains, enhancing rural road access, and increasing per capita calories. The scenario predicts that by 2043, average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare (a 37% increase over the 'Current Path') and irrigated land will grow to 17.4 million hectares. It emphasizes the role of these interventions in reducing food loss and waste—projected to drop to 19.4% by 2033—and improving rural accessibility to 69%. The model balances agricultural expansion with forest protection, aiming to save 30 million hectares of forest land by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.

The report examines how national investment laws handle dispute prevention, management, and settlement (DPMS). It finds that while most laws include DPMS provisions—particularly in Africa and Asia—the use of international arbitration, especially through 'advance consent,' exposes states to significant financial risks. The authors advocate for prioritizing national courts and non-adjudicative mechanisms, providing a structured framework for states to reform their investment laws based on specific national policy problems rather than generic international standards.

The report examines how national investment laws handle the prevention, management, and settlement of disputes between investors and states. Based on an analysis of 167 laws, it finds that while dispute resolution is a common feature—particularly in Africa and Asia—the use of international arbitration and 'prior consent' clauses exposes states to significant financial and regulatory risks. The authors argue that states should prioritize national courts and administrative reviews over parallel arbitration systems and strongly recommend against including unilateral prior consent to international arbitration in national legislation.

The report analyzes the integration of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) into trade policies to enhance market access for developing countries. It identifies two primary forms of integration: direct mandatory compliance and voluntary influence on national policies. Through case studies in Mozambique (cotton), Namibia (horticulture), Suriname (fisheries), and Vietnam (forestry), the report highlights that while VSSs can improve product quality and reputation, implementation is often hindered by high certification costs, limited institutional capacity, and market volatility.

The AfCFTA faces significant implementation hurdles due to the extreme economic disparity between member states, which may lead to 'winners and losers' where advanced economies benefit while least developed countries (LDCs) face initial welfare losses. Key challenges include the loss of critical tariff revenues for some governments, weak institutional capacities in LDCs, and limited commitment to the free movement of labour. To mitigate these risks, the agreement employs special and differential treatment, granting LDCs and a specific 'Group of 6' (G6) longer phase-out periods for tariff liberalisation, though the authors argue that additional support from the AU Secretariat and private finance is necessary to bridge the development gap.

The report details the disproportionate burden of climate change on Africa, noting that since 1984, the continent has faced 1,865 climate-related disasters resulting in US$53 billion in losses. It highlights a critical lack of financial protection, with only 9% of disaster losses insured. Regional analysis shows water-related disasters as the primary threat, with severe flooding in East Africa and historic droughts in Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa. The document also links climate change to the spread of diseases like cholera and malaria, and the risk of desertification in the Sahel and West Africa.

The AfCFTA agreement, effective since January 2021, is being implemented in three phases covering trade in goods, services, investment, and digital trade. While 47 of 55 countries had ratified the agreement by January 2024, progress varies across specific instruments, such as the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons.

The report finds that while the percentage of Africans living in extreme poverty has declined since the 1990s, the absolute number of poor people continues to rise due to rapid population growth. Africa is projected to miss the 2030 SDG goal of eliminating extreme poverty, with several countries likely to maintain poverty rates above 50% by that date. The document attributes these challenges to high inequality, over-reliance on natural resources, and bad governance, noting that Sub-Saharan Africa carries the largest global burden of extreme poverty.

The document outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the specific interventions used to simulate the agreement's impact—including import tax reductions and productivity increases—and specifies the tariff phase-out timelines for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), non-LDCs, and the G6 countries. The authors characterize the scenario as an optimistic forecast that depends on political commitment and stakeholder engagement.

The evaluation concludes that the SAP has become operationally ineffective, failing to deliver on its promises of simplification and acceleration. While it has provided unintended value as a 'stepping-stone' for Direct Access Entities (DAEs) to build institutional capacity, it is now virtually indistinguishable from the standard Project Approval Process (PAP). The report recommends discontinuing the SAP in its current form and replacing it with a new, integrated access modality featuring delegated authority and a focus on replicating proven interventions rather than piloting new ideas.

Russia is attempting to leverage historical liberation-era ties and anti-Western rhetoric to maintain influence in Southern Africa, but faces significant constraints. While it maintains security cooperation and diplomatic links with several SADC members, its economic footprint remains modest, accounting for barely 1% of the region's external trade in 2024. The document highlights a gap between Moscow's symbolic gestures—such as debt forgiveness and limited grain shipments—and tangible developmental results, noting that sanctions and economic weakness hinder its ability to compete with China, the EU, and the US.

The document examines the role of young human rights and environmental defenders (DDHE) in Madagascar, highlighting their innovative use of digital tools for mobilization and the systemic barriers they face, including security threats and symbolic rather than substantive inclusion in governance. It calls for the implementation of international biodiversity targets, the creation of permanent youth participation structures, and the adoption of a national law to protect defenders.

Since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, Russia has restructured its African security engagements, moving from the high-profile combat deployments of the Wagner Group to a more centralised model controlled by the Kremlin and the GRU. This new approach prioritises 'regime survival' services, including elite protection, training, and intelligence sharing, while expanding covert information warfare through entities like Russia House and the African Initiative. Despite these efforts, Russia's footprint is constrained by the resource demands of its war in Ukraine and risks of 'blowback' from African governments due to human rights abuses and deceptive recruitment schemes like 'Alabuga Start'.

The report examines how the insurance and reinsurance sectors are responding to intensifying climate disruptions in global supply chains. It identifies critical structural, market, and modelling limits that undermine the industry's ability to absorb systemic risk, noting a trend toward 'un-insurability' in high-risk regions. The author argues that without a shift from simple risk transfer to a stewardship model integrated with long-term adaptation and public-private coordination, the sector may amplify rather than stabilize economic volatility.

The NAP Global Network's 2025 report details its efforts to move developing countries from adaptation planning to implementation. Key achievements include supporting 18 countries in this transition, delivering 24 short-term technical assistance requests via the Country Support Hub, and managing 13 long-term In-Country Support Programs. The Network emphasizes the importance of monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL), gender equality and social inclusion (GESI), and the integration of nature-based solutions. A new strategic plan to 2030 prioritizes Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), with a focus on accountability, civil society engagement, and the alignment of adaptation planning with peacebuilding and the Global Goal on Adaptation.

The ARE Energy Access Investment Forum 2026 brought together 1,400 participants from 87 countries to discuss renewable electrification. Key outcomes included the launch of the USD 25m ASCENT Project Preparation Facility by COMESA and a GDP 14m contribution from the UK's FCDO to the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa in the DRC. The forum highlighted systemic gaps in capital allocation for small African-led firms and the need to shift from supply-led to demand-led skills training for the green transition.