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North Africa faces critical ecological security threats from water scarcity and advancing desertification, which are expected to intensify by 2040 due to climate change and population growth. The region is experiencing declining rainfall, extreme heat waves, and sea-level rise, which threaten food security and socio-economic stability. Key vulnerabilities include the overexploitation of groundwater and a high dependence on food imports. The document recommends a transition to sustainable agriculture, including drip irrigation and drought-resistant crops, alongside wastewater recycling and community-based resilience initiatives.

From June 11-13, 2024, over 290 million people in Northern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East are forecast to experience extreme heat made at least five times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher are expected in several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt. The document highlights risks including wildfires in Greece, damage to Bulgaria's rose oil production, and increased vulnerability for refugees in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria.

Global Energy Monitor identifies 74 new oil and gas projects that could emit 2.4 million metric tonnes of methane annually by 2030, potentially undermining the Global Methane Pledge. The analysis reveals significant discrepancies between these potential emissions and the company-wide figures reported by operators to the OGMP 2.0, suggesting widespread underreporting of assets or methane intensity. A small number of fields in Saudi Arabia and Guyana account for a disproportionate share of these emissions, while new EU regulations on imported oil and gas are expected to impact many of these developments.

The document argues that superhot rock energy could provide a ubiquitous, carbon-free, and land-efficient power source for the MENA region, leveraging existing subsurface expertise from the oil and gas industry to overcome technological hurdles.

The document analyzes the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, highlighting an unprecedented bombing rate facilitated by AI-driven targeting. It compares the destruction to World War II carpet-bombing and argues that the use of disproportionate force violates international humanitarian law, while concluding that military solutions are counterproductive to long-term peace.

The document examines how African nations have responded to the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting a trend toward non-alignment and a reluctance to support punitive measures against Russia. It argues that African responses are driven by a combination of historical grievances with Western leadership (such as the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya and COVID-19 vaccine inequity) and strategic national interests. The report details the economic opportunities arising from Europe's shift away from Russian energy, specifically regarding natural gas and critical minerals, while warning that geopolitical rivalry between the US, Russia, and China may undermine regional security initiatives like the Accra Initiative. It concludes by advocating for a foreign policy based on 'non-alignment' and 'indivisible security' to avoid becoming proxies in a new Cold War.

The document analyzes Russia's strategic pivot toward Africa as a means to diversify partners and evade Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. It argues that while Africa is not a central priority for the Kremlin, it serves as a critical 'theater' for projecting power, securing natural resources, and challenging US-led unipolarity. The paper details Russia's approach across several sectors, including arms sales, nuclear energy, and mining, while highlighting the role of the Wagner Group in providing security in exchange for resource access. It concludes that Russia leverages African support at the UN to maintain its status as a global power and to promote a multipolar international system.

The document analyzes Russia's strategic use of public media (RT, Sputnik, TASS) and social media to expand its influence in Africa. It highlights the use of anti-imperialist rhetoric to appeal to African audiences and the deployment of 'troll farms' and local proxies to disseminate polarizing content. Case studies on Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic illustrate how Russia combines digital influence with on-the-ground activities, such as funding local press and sponsoring cultural events, to present itself as a viable alternative to Western partners, despite operating with a limited budget.

Turkey has expanded its influence in sub-Saharan Africa by leveraging a combination of humanitarian diplomacy, shared religious identity, and an anti-colonial narrative to establish soft power, which has subsequently paved the way for hard power interests. A key pillar of this strategy is the relationship with Somalia, recently solidified by a 10-year Defence and Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement granting Turkey authority over the management and defence of Somali waters. While Turkey positions itself as an alternative to Western powers, it faces competition from other middle powers like the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. The document notes that Turkey's future engagement will be heavily influenced by its domestic economic crisis, potentially shifting priority toward high-yield economic activities such as defence exports and construction contracts over humanitarian aid.

The document examines the ecological and human rights risks of various geoengineering approaches, asserting that these speculative technologies could lead to ecosystem collapse and perpetuate neocolonialism.

The document analyzes the role of digital technologies in peace mediation, focusing on how non-governmental Peace Facilitation Organizations (PFOs) integrate 'PeaceTech' and manage digital conflict. It explores the tension between the need for confidentiality in high-level negotiations and the potential for digital tools to increase transparency and inclusion in community-level dialogues. While acknowledging that digital platforms can reach new demographics, the authors argue that technology is not a guarantee of equitable representation and should complement rather than replace traditional mediation.

The document examines how climate change and sea level rise threaten coastal communities and military infrastructure, potentially leading to social instability and reduced military readiness. It advocates for the use of nature-based solutions—such as mangroves, coral reefs, and salt marshes—as cost-effective alternatives or supplements to artificial infrastructure to dissipate wave energy and reduce flooding. The author highlights specific military applications, including US Department of Defense projects in Florida and UK efforts in overseas territories, and suggests that supporting these ecological defenses in partner nations can bolster strategic alliances and global security.

The report examines the migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the interconnectedness of forced displacement with climate change, energy poverty, water scarcity, and healthcare deficits. It focuses on Cyprus as a primary destination for asylum seekers, detailing the strain on infrastructure in the south and the lack of legal frameworks in the north. The author proposes a bi-communal strategy, including a joint Rapid Response Committee and a reception center in the UN Buffer Zone, to manage these transnational human security threats through cooperation between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities.

The document examines the critical water scarcity and management challenges facing the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the stark disparity in water distribution between the northern and southern/eastern regions. It analyzes the compounding effects of climate change, population growth, and political tensions on water security. The author argues for a shift from supply-based infrastructure to integrated water resource management and hydrodiplomacy to mitigate conflicts and foster regional stability.

On July 7, 2023, the United States destroyed the last of its declared chemical weapons stockpile, marking the elimination of 100 percent of the world's declared chemical weapons. The process was overseen by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and faced delays due to technical challenges and local opposition to incineration methods at sites like the Pueblo Chemical Depot and Blue Grass Army Depot. Despite this milestone, the report highlights ongoing noncompliance by Burma, Iran, Russia, and Syria, and the use of Novichok nerve agents. It argues that the U.S. must retain its scientific and technical countering-WMD expertise to assist in treaty verification and respond to future contingencies, especially as other nonproliferation frameworks, such as the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, face increasing fragility.

The period from November 2022 to October 2023 was the hottest 12-month stretch in recorded history, with a global average temperature 1.32°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), Climate Central found that 90% of the global population (7.3 billion people) experienced at least 10 days of temperatures very strongly affected by climate change (CSI level 3 or higher). Approximately 1.9 billion people (24%) experienced a five-day heat wave strongly influenced by carbon pollution (CSI level 2 or higher). The report highlights an inequitable distribution of impacts, with small island developing states and least developed countries facing higher exposure, although heat waves also occurred in G20 nations. The analysis also links human-induced climate change to severe weather events, including deadly flooding in Africa and Libya, and record-breaking wildfires in Canada and Hawaii.

The report forecasts a significant increase in Africa's energy demand due to population growth, projecting that it will overtake the EU27 by 2043. While Africa possesses vast oil, gas, and hydropower reserves, its current energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 'other renewables' making up only 1.6% of production in 2023. The document highlights a trajectory where Africa will eventually become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, overtaking the EU by 2034.

The document examines Africa's natural gas landscape, noting that while the continent holds approximately 10% of global proven gas reserves, a lack of domestic infrastructure means most production is destined for export. It highlights a potential global LNG supply glut starting in mid-2025 and 2026, which may lower prices and profits for exporters. Key reserves are concentrated in Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya, while new discoveries are emerging in countries like Mozambique and Senegal. Specific large-scale projects are detailed for Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

The report identifies Africa as a net energy exporter, though it forecasts that total energy demand will exceed production by 2039. While a small group of countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and Angola maintain high export values, a significant number of African nations remain heavily dependent on energy imports, a group expected to expand by 2043.

The report projects that Africa's total energy demand will rise from 4.589 BBOE in 2023 to 10.26 BBOE by 2043, driven by population growth and development needs. It highlights significant current disparities in per capita energy use across African nations and compares these figures to the United States and India.