Ecological Sources of Coastal National and Global Security

The document examines how climate change and sea level rise threaten coastal communities and military infrastructure, potentially leading to social instability and reduced military readiness. It advocates for the use of nature-based solutions—such as mangroves, coral reefs, and salt marshes—as cost-effective alternatives or supplements to artificial infrastructure to dissipate wave energy and reduce flooding. The author highlights specific military applications, including US Department of Defense projects in Florida and UK efforts in overseas territories, and suggests that supporting these ecological defenses in partner nations can bolster strategic alliances and global security.

• Coastal populations are growing faster than inland ones, with approximately 2.5 billion people living within 100 kilometers of the sea. Projections indicate that by 2050 and 2070, coastal flooding will affect 200 percent more assets and 300 percent more people, respectively.
• Climate-driven coastal disruption can lead to international security risks, such as national fishing fleets entering contested waters as they follow shifting fish stocks. In regions with weak institutions, such as archipelagic Southeast Asia, environmental pressures may contribute to internal conflict and the rise of authoritarianism.
• Climate hazards undermine military readiness by forcing forces to divert from core missions to provide disaster relief. For example, between 1991 and 2018, the US Indo-Pacific Command responded to eight natural disasters in the Philippines, including the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan which required the deployment of 12 ships and the evacuation of 21,000 people.
• Many military installations are directly threatened by sea level rise and 'nuisance flooding'. In the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, 38 percent of military lands will be threatened by storm surge, and 9 percent could be permanently inundated by 2090.
• Nature-based solutions can be more effective and cost-efficient than artificial infrastructure. A review of 65 studies showed that coral reefs, salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass reduced wave heights by an average of 70, 72, 31, and 36 percent, respectively.
• The US Department of Defense is implementing nature-based resilience at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida using a living shoreline of plants, rocks, and shells, alongside oyster reefs and seagrass meadows. Additionally, DARPA is developing hybrid reef-mimicking structures that combine artificial and biological elements to create self-repairing reefs.
• The UK government has used the Conflict, Stability and Security Fund to map nature-based solutions, such as mangroves, to protect island communities in overseas territories including the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Anguilla, Bermuda, Saint Helena, and Tristan da Cunha.
• Beyond coastal defense, these ecosystems provide critical 'blue carbon' sequestration, biodiversity nurseries for fish, and economic support through tourism, particularly in equatorial communities.

APA

Zarfos, M. R. (2023). Ecological Sources of Coastal National and Global Security. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/12/18/ecological-sources-of-coastal-national-and-global-security/

Chicago

Zarfos, Michael R. Ecological Sources of Coastal National and Global Security. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/12/18/ecological-sources-of-coastal-national-and-global-security/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zarfos |first1=Michael R. |title=Ecological Sources of Coastal National and Global Security |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=18 December 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/12/18/ecological-sources-of-coastal-national-and-global-security/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zarfos2023ecological, author = {Zarfos, Michael R.}, title = {{Ecological Sources of Coastal National and Global Security}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/12/18/ecological-sources-of-coastal-national-and-global-security/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }