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The document examines the complex intersection of political instability, economic crisis, and energy transition in Nigeria. It highlights the tension between Nigeria's desire to leverage fossil fuels for economic diversification and the global shift by financing partners toward renewables. The author analyzes the inefficiencies of the power sector, using the Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company as a case study, and proposes three policy options for the Tinubu administration to integrate energy transition into national development. It concludes that securing international capital requires aligning domestic policies with the strict de-fossilization requirements of partners like the EU and USA, while exploring innovative support for subnational entities and traditional rulers.

The report examines the disconnect between Nigeria's top-down climate adaptation frameworks and the actual practices of frontline communities. Through case studies in Ogun, Lagos, and Anambra states, it demonstrates that community-led initiatives—such as biogas production, aquaculture modifications, and traditional erosion control—are already occurring despite limited finance and technical support. The authors argue that integrating these bottom-up strategies into national policies like the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is essential for sustained climate resilience.

The report identifies municipal solid waste and wastewater as significant contributors to anthropogenic methane emissions, accounting for approximately 12% and 8% respectively. It details how poor waste management leads to health crises, including respiratory diseases from landfill fires and waterborne illnesses from untreated sewage. The document proposes a 'waste hierarchy' approach—prioritizing reduction and reuse—and technical solutions such as anaerobic digestion and landfill gas (LFG) capture. Case studies from Nigeria, Indonesia, India, and the Philippines illustrate the potential for these interventions to reduce premature deaths, create economic value through biogas, and improve sanitation in the Global South.

The report analyzes the Democratic Republic of Congo's high fertility rates, rapid population growth, and urbanisation trends. It argues that without sound demographic policies to reduce fertility and manage a large youth bulge, the country's population growth will remain a significant obstacle to economic prosperity and human development, delaying the achievement of a demographic dividend until approximately 2060.

The document outlines the severe health threats posed by climate change, including increased mortality from heatwaves, air pollution, and infectious diseases, while highlighting the 'triple win' of improving public health, creating a sustainable economy, and protecting the environment through aggressive mitigation and adaptation.

The report examines the challenges facing Nigeria's energy transition, noting that economic crises and security issues have marginalised climate action in political discourse. It suggests that the government can drive renewable energy adoption by reinstating VAT and import duty exemptions for solar components and by completing the Presidential Power Initiative to improve grid stability. The author argues for a realistic energy vision that avoids suboptimal pathways and leverages existing agricultural networks for climate-smart interventions.

The author contends that Nigeria's security crises are fundamentally linked to its economic situation, where systemic poverty—exacerbated by political mismanagement and state failure—drives citizens toward crime. The paper details regional security threats, from jihadist violence in the North-East to oil theft in the South-South, and identifies specific failures such as the ineffective fuel subsidy regime, lack of infrastructure investment, and high youth unemployment. It concludes that without a shift toward selfless leadership and growth-oriented policies, the 2023 elections are unlikely to break this cycle of instability.

The document examines the 2023 Nigerian elections, highlighting the role of ethno-regional configurations over ideology and the specific platforms of the APC, PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP. It assesses how different winners would impact domestic security, economic policy—specifically regarding oil and fuel subsidies—and Nigeria's energy relationship with Europe.

The document highlights how global climate decisions at COP27 affect local areas through three primary tools: an analysis of U.S. warming scenarios, the Global Climate Shift Index (CSI-Global) tracking daily temperature influences in over 1,000 cities, and the Picturing Our Future tool visualizing sea level rise. It emphasizes the gap between current emissions trajectories and the 1.5°C to 2°C warming limits agreed upon in 2015.

Climate Central's global analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) found that 96% of the world's population—7.6 billion people—experienced daily temperatures made warmer by human-caused climate change between October 2021 and September 2022. The study identifies the strongest influences in regions near the equator and on small islands, with Lagos, Mexico City, and Singapore emerging as the highest hotspots of human exposure when accounting for urban population. The analysis also pinpointed peak continental CSI days, noting that these do not always coincide with major heat waves.

In 2019/2020, Nigeria received an average of USD 1.9 billion annually in climate finance, representing only 11% of the USD 17.7 billion needed annually for its conditional NDC. Public finance dominated at 77% of total flows, primarily delivered as concessional debt. Mitigation finance (USD 1.1 billion) outweighed adaptation finance (USD 663 million), despite high vulnerability to climate shocks. Energy systems received the most investment, particularly solar, while sectors like waste and industrial processes remained severely underfunded. The report highlights a significant contradiction between climate finance flows and continued heavy investment in fossil fuels, noting one LNG project alone received USD 2.77 billion. Key barriers include limited private sector mobilization, capacity constraints in GHG reporting, and a lack of national climate budget tagging.

The Catalysing Climate Resilience (CCR) programme, funded by the FCDO and managed by FSD Africa, aims to build climate resilience in Africa through a three-part strategy: seeding new solutions via the Triggering Exponential Climate Action (TECA) venture launcher, accelerating growth through the Catalyst Fund, and developing the broader innovation ecosystem. The programme focuses on products and services that enable vulnerable households and businesses to adapt to climate change. Reported outcomes include the support of 70 start-ups, the creation or protection of 2,164 jobs, and the mobilisation of $11 million in public and private finance for resilience solutions.

FSD Africa is assisting the Lagos State Government (LASG) to address inadequate flood risk management by integrating private financial sector instruments into disaster risk reduction and financing. The initiative focuses on creating a Flood Resilience Finance Framework and Policy and supporting specific financial transactions for resilient infrastructure and risk transfer. The program aims to benefit 500,000 people with increased climate resilience and 50,000 people with improved employment opportunities, while attracting commercial capital for infrastructure and climate risk underwriting.

In 2019/2020, Nigeria received an average of USD 1.9 billion annually in climate finance, representing only 11% of the USD 17.7 billion needed to meet its conditional NDC target. Public finance dominated the landscape, accounting for 77% of flows, primarily through concessional debt. Mitigation finance (USD 1.1 billion) outweighed adaptation finance (USD 663 million), despite the country's high vulnerability to climate risks. Energy systems received the largest share of investment (41%), with a strong focus on solar technologies, while sectors like waste and industrial processes remained severely underfunded. The report highlights a significant contradiction between climate finance goals and continued heavy investment in fossil fuels, noting that a single LNG project received USD 2.77 billion—more than the total tracked climate finance for the period.

The report examines the role of the buildings sector in global GHG emissions, which account for 37% of energy-related emissions. It identifies key technical solutions for decarbonization, including reducing embodied carbon in materials and improving operational efficiency in heating and cooling. The document evaluates various financial instruments—ranging from traditional mortgages to specialized on-bill financing—and policy tools like building codes and green labels. It emphasizes that the transition requires a network of instruments tailored to different building archetypes and regional contexts, providing specific deep dives into the unique challenges and opportunities in Nigeria and Indonesia.

The analysis examines how the expansion of built-up areas at the expense of natural heat sinks like green spaces and water bodies increases urban heat risks in major cities across the Critical 9 countries. Using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data and the IPCC's SSP1-1.9 scenario, the report details specific land-use losses in cities such as Shanghai, Karachi, and Dhaka, linking these changes to increased vulnerability to dangerous heat days (above 35°C) and rising energy demands for active cooling.

The document analyzes the trajectory of sustainable urban development, noting that while urban populations are projected to reach 68% by 2050, cities contribute significantly to global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. It highlights a divide between the Global North's focus on infrastructure transformation and the Global South's need to 'jump start' sustainable development. The paper identifies key trends such as nature-based solutions, multimodal transportation, and a growing emphasis on equity and inclusive planning to address environmental racism and green gentrification.

The March 2022 attacks on the Abuja-Kaduna railway, which resulted in deaths and 168 kidnappings, indicate a shift toward targeting state infrastructure by bandits and violent extremists. These groups, including Boko Haram and Ansaru, fund their operations through a kidnapping economy, with an estimated US$18.34 million paid in ransoms between 2011 and 2020. The attacks threaten the economic viability of the railway, which generates N300 million monthly, and highlight the need for intelligence-led security and the resolution of underlying socio-economic issues like poverty and corruption.

The Lagos Declaration on Community Justice outlines a series of pledges by West African organisations to strengthen legal empowerment for the poor. Key commitments include training paralegals to address climate change and land rights, increasing the participation of women in legal work, and advocating for the formal recognition of community paralegals across the region. The participating organisations, forming the West Africa Legal Empowerment Network, aim to co-create participatory action research to tackle environmental and land justice challenges in both rural and urban settings.

Nigeria faces severe developmental challenges including endemic corruption, insecurity, and an overdependence on oil exports. Projections indicate that without intervention, Nigeria will have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050. The report proposes a 'Super Nigeria' scenario combining improvements in governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification to potentially make Nigeria the fifth largest economy globally by 2050.