Development pathways for the DRC to 2050

The report analyzes the Democratic Republic of Congo's high fertility rates, rapid population growth, and urbanisation trends. It argues that without sound demographic policies to reduce fertility and manage a large youth bulge, the country's population growth will remain a significant obstacle to economic prosperity and human development, delaying the achievement of a demographic dividend until approximately 2060.

• The DR Congo has one of the highest fertility rates globally, ranking third after Niger and Somalia. In 2019, the fertility rate was 5.9 children per woman, though this is lower than the 6.7 average seen in the 1990s. These rates vary significantly by region and socio-economic status: Kinshasa has the lowest rate at 4.2, while Kasaï Occidental has the highest at 8.2. Additionally, women with no education average 7.4 children, compared to 2.9 for those with at least a secondary education.
• Under the 'Current Path' scenario, the DR Congo's population is expected to double by 2045 and surpass Ethiopia by 2050 to become Africa's second most populous country after Nigeria. The total fertility rate is projected to be 3.4 in 2050, which remains higher than the projected averages for low-income countries (2.8) and sub-Saharan Africa (2.9).
• Rapid urbanisation is occurring alongside population growth. The urban population share is projected to rise from 45% in 2019 to 64% by 2050. Kinshasa is expected to reach 24 million people by 2030, potentially becoming the most populous city in Africa. Currently, nearly 75% of the DR Congo's urban population lives in slums, which is 15 percentage points higher than the sub-Saharan African average.
• The DR Congo is unlikely to reap a demographic dividend until around 2060, nearly a decade later than the global average for low-income countries. This is because the ratio of the working-age population to dependents is projected to be only 1.2:1 in 2030 and 1.5:1 in 2050, failing to meet the 1.7:1 threshold required for rapid growth. The country also faces a 'youth bulge' of 49% (ages 15-29), which could lead to socio-political instability if employment and education needs are not met.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2023). Development pathways for the DRC to 2050. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Development pathways for the DRC to 2050. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Development pathways for the DRC to 2050 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Development pathways for the DRC to 2050}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }