Development pathways for the DRC to 2050

This report analyzes the demographic profile and future projections for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) up to 2050, highlighting the challenges of high fertility rates, rapid urbanization, and the delayed achievement of a demographic dividend.

• The DR Congo has one of the highest fertility rates globally, ranking third after Niger and Somalia. In 2019, the fertility rate was 5.9 children per woman, down from a 1990s average of 6.7. This rate varies significantly by region and socio-economic status: Kinshasa has the lowest rate at 4.2 children per woman, while Kasaï Occidental has the highest at 8.2. Additionally, women with no education average 7.4 children, compared to 2.9 for those with at least a secondary education.
• Under the 'Current Path' scenario, the DR Congo's population is projected to double by 2045 and surpass Ethiopia by 2050 to become Africa's second most populous country after Nigeria. The total fertility rate is expected to be 3.4 in 2050, which remains higher than the projected averages for low-income countries (2.8) and sub-Saharan Africa (2.9).
• Rapid urbanization is expected to increase the urban population share from 45% in 2019 to 64% by 2050. Kinshasa is projected to reach a population of 24 million by 2030, potentially becoming the most populous city in Africa, exceeding Lagos and Cairo. Currently, nearly 75% of the DR Congo's urban population lives in slums, which is 15 percentage points above the sub-Saharan African average.
• The DR Congo is unlikely to reap a demographic dividend until approximately 2060, nearly a decade later than the global average for low-income countries. This is because the ratio of the working-age population to dependents is projected to be only 1.2:1 in 2030 and 1.5:1 in 2050, failing to meet the 1.7:1 threshold required for rapid growth.
• The country faces a significant 'youth bulge' of 49% (population aged 15-29 relative to those 15 and above). While this group can drive positive political change, a lack of employment and job prospects for young adults, particularly males, can lead to socio-political instability, similar to patterns seen in Sudan, Chile, and the Arab Spring.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2023). Development pathways for the DRC to 2050. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Development pathways for the DRC to 2050. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Development pathways for the DRC to 2050 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Development pathways for the DRC to 2050}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/drc&topic=04-demographics}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }