Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change

The document examines the 2023 Nigerian elections, highlighting the role of ethno-regional configurations over ideology and the specific platforms of the APC, PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP. It assesses how different winners would impact domestic security, economic policy—specifically regarding oil and fuel subsidies—and Nigeria's energy relationship with Europe.

• Nigerian political parties function primarily as "conduits to power" rather than ideological groups, with elections typically decided by the personality of candidates and "ethno-regional configurations" rather than policy ideas.
• The 2023 election features four primary parties: the APC (Bola Tinubu), the PDP (Atiku Abubakar), the Labour Party (Peter Obi), and the NNPP (Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso). The APC and Labour Party followed a 'power-shift' principle by fielding southern candidates, while the PDP and NNPP did not.
• Candidate platforms show significant overlap on security and governance, but differ on economic specifics: the APC targets 10% annual GDP growth and import substitution; the PDP advocates for a free market and privatizing the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC); the Labour Party proposes a zero-based budget; and the NNPP focuses on reducing oil reliance and increasing social spending.
• Regardless of the winner, the document asserts that fuel subsidies will be discontinued because they have become "unsustainable."
• The election may result in a runoff for the first time in Nigerian history if no candidate meets the constitutional requirement of a simple majority and at least 25% of votes in 24 of the 36 states.
• Nigeria is positioned as a critical energy source for Europe to reduce dependence on Russian energy, supported by proven gas reserves of approximately 206.53 trillion cubic feet.

APA

Amaza, M. (2023). Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change

Chicago

Amaza, Mark. Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2023. https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Amaza |first1=Mark |title=Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=3 February 2023 |url=https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{amaza2023nigeria, author = {Amaza, Mark}, title = {{Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }