Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change

This research paper analyzes Nigeria's 2023 general elections, highlighting the role of ethno-regional dynamics over ideology. It details the platforms of the four main contenders—Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—and discusses the country's severe security and economic challenges. The paper notes that while policy goals are similar, the outcome will impact Nigeria's internal stability and its role as a critical LNG supplier to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

• The 2023 Nigerian elections are characterized by high competition among 18 political parties, with the presidential winner requiring a simple majority of all votes and at least 25% of votes in 24 of the 36 states.
• Nigeria faces significant socio-economic and security challenges, including a 14-year Islamist insurgency in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, separatist movements in the South-East, and high unemployment rates: 33% overall and 53.4% for youth.
• Nigerian political parties are described as conduits to power rather than ideological groups, with elections often decided by candidate personality and ethno-regional configurations rather than policy ideas.
• The four primary contenders for the 2023 presidency are Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (NNPP).
• The APC's selection of a Muslim-Muslim ticket (Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima) has caused controversy, as it deviates from the unwritten rule of balancing tickets on regional and religious lines, specifically by not choosing a northern Christian running mate.
• While candidates share similar goals regarding security and governance, their economic approaches differ: the APC focuses on import substitution and 10% annual GDP growth; the PDP advocates for a free market and privatization of the NNPC; the Labour Party proposes a zero-based budget; and the NNPP aims to reduce oil reliance.
• Regardless of the winner, it is expected that fuel subsidies will be discontinued due to their lack of sustainability.
• Nigeria is viewed as a vital energy source for Europe, particularly for liquefied natural gas (LNG), as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine.

APA

Amaza, M. (2023). Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change

Chicago

Amaza, Mark. Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2023. https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Amaza |first1=Mark |title=Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=3 February 2023 |url=https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{amaza2023nigeria, author = {Amaza, Mark}, title = {{Nigeria 2023 Elections: Contenders, Campaigns and Change}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://afripoli.org/nigeria-2023-elections-contenders-campaigns-and-change}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }