Search Climate Insights Directory

The report finds that the complete removal of fossil fuel consumption subsidies across 32 modelled countries could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 6.09% by 2030. When combined with a 'subsidy swap' (reinvesting savings into energy efficiency and renewables) and a 10% energy tax, the average national emission reduction increases to 11.84%. The analysis highlights that while some countries like Venezuela see reductions over 30%, G20 nations provide the largest absolute reductions due to their economic scale. Financially, fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) alone could generate USD 2.99 trillion in cumulative savings by 2030, offering a cost-effective mechanism for a 'green recovery' from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Council on Strategic Risks outlines key policy challenges and proposed Senate questioning for Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins' nomination as Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs. The authors emphasize the need for the U.S. to address the erosion of norms against chemical weapons, vulnerabilities exposed by COVID-19 regarding biological threats, and the rising risks of nuclear proliferation and treaty dissolution. They suggest that the nominee should be questioned on strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention, managing the final destruction of U.S. chemical stockpiles by 2023, and reinvigorating 21st-century nuclear arms control.

The report finds that baseline projections for oil, gas, and coal production are significantly higher than the levels required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. It highlights that the largest production increases are projected in the United States, Brazil, Iran, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The analysis argues that a managed wind-down of production is necessary to avoid inequitable outcomes, as the projected production from high-income and low-dependence countries alone would exceed the 1.5°C-consistent global budget.

The report identifies a $1 trillion stranded asset risk associated with 212,000 km of planned oil and gas pipeline expansions. It highlights that gas dominates new developments, with 82.7% of pipelines in development carrying gas. The U.S. and China are leading in capacity and length growth, respectively. The document argues that this expansion is incompatible with net-zero commitments and will lock in significant CO2 emissions, while noting a trend of increasing social and legal opposition to such projects.

The policy brief examines the 2021 UN Security Council agreement to keep the Bab al-Hawa border crossing open for humanitarian aid to Syria. It argues that Russia's support for the resolution, despite its preference for aid to flow through Damascus, was driven by a need to prevent the economic collapse of the al-Assad regime. The author highlights the role of a bilateral US-Russia deal and the diplomatic efforts of Ireland and Norway in securing the compromise. The brief also notes that while external stakeholders find the current fragile state of Syria acceptable, the lack of funding for reconstruction and regional instabilities—including COVID-19 and shifts in Iranian and US engagement—threaten long-term stability.

The policy brief examines the regional dynamics surrounding Afghanistan, arguing that the country often serves as an arena where neighbors project their own existential security concerns and rivalries. It highlights the risks associated with the US military withdrawal in 2021, noting that while global powers like Russia and China have interests in the region, there is a critical lack of a credible multilateral platform for neighbors to coordinate. The author analyzes specific tensions, including the Iran-Saudi rivalry in the Gulf, the lead taken by Uzbekistan in Central Asia, and the deep-seated India-Pakistan conflict in South Asia, concluding that any Afghan normalization not endorsed by both India and Pakistan will be unsustainable.

Egypt is constructing a nuclear power plant at Al Dabaa through a partnership with Russia's ROSATOM, a project framed as a 'mega-project' to boost national prestige and ensure long-term energy self-sufficiency. While the government argues the plant is necessary for a growing population, critics suggest it is an expensive and redundant luxury given Egypt's current energy surplus and investments in renewables. The project is characterized by top-down governance, significant Russian financing via a $25 billion loan, and domestic disputes over land expropriation and environmental risks.

The document analyzes the deadlock in Syria's reconstruction, focusing on the impact of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the competing motivations of the US, Russia, and Iran. While the Assad regime has largely won the military conflict, it faces economic collapse and immense reconstruction costs. The US uses sanctions and a limited military presence in eastern Syria as leverage to force a UN-led political solution, while Russia and Iran seek to secure their strategic footprints in the Middle East. The authors suggest that US sanctions may act as a deterrent to reconstruction, potentially making the US a 'spoiler' in the process, while China's growing influence in the region may further dilute the efficacy of unilateral US pressure.

The study finds that sexual violence in Tahrir Square was more likely to occur during large, static protests and less likely during transient demonstrations. The author identifies a shift from single-perpetrator to multiple-perpetrator assaults, specifically the 'circle of hell' phenomenon, suggesting a learned behavioral pattern or strategy. While the study found no statistically significant link between the specific political aim of a protest (anti-regime or anti-military) and the occurrence of sexual violence in the main model, it highlights the historical use of sexual violence as a tool of repression by the Egyptian state.

Cooling access gaps for the rural and urban poor grew across all analyzed regions in 2021. In Africa, 776 million people across 31 high-impact countries face cooling challenges, with 215 million urban poor at highest risk. In Asia and the Middle East, the population at highest risk rose to 645 million in 2021, with significant rural poor increases in India and Bangladesh. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the number of people at highest risk in six high-impact countries reached 48.8 million, with the majority being the urban poor.

The document examines the COVID-19 pandemic as a systemic crisis that exposed deep inequalities and the fragility of market-based systems. It argues that the health crisis is inextricably linked to environmental collapse, specifically biodiversity loss and zoonotic risks. The text advocates for the revival of the social state, the implementation of a 'foundational economy' that prioritizes basic human needs over profit, and the adoption of 'technological humanism' to bridge the digital divide. It also analyzes the political responses of Green parties in Europe and the rise of authoritarianism and right-wing populism during the crisis, while highlighting grassroots solidarity networks and the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on marginalized groups, including migrants and the elderly.

The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) examines how climate change and nuclear trends—including the expansion of civil nuclear energy and the modernization of nuclear arsenals—interact to reshape the international order. The briefing highlights specific regional vulnerabilities, such as water stress in South Asia and sea-level rise affecting nuclear sites in Egypt and Nigeria. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the U.S. government, including the creation of a National Security Council director for the climate-nuclear-security nexus and the elimination of low-yield nuclear weapons to restore international trust.

The report identifies over 60 mitigation policies adopted between July 2019 and August 2020, noting the highest activity in the energy and transport sectors. It highlights a lack of explicitly 'green' COVID-19 recovery measures in most assessed countries, except for the EU and Republic of Korea. Additionally, it tracks the progress of NDCs and LTS, noting that only Vietnam has officially revised its NDC target among the group, while the EU and Japan have submitted net-zero long-term strategies.

A coalition of international church-based organisations urges the European Commission to reform its migration and asylum policies, arguing that the current system is 'fundamentally broken'. The statement highlights the failure of the 'hotspot' approach and the 2016 EU-Turkey deal, calling for a shift from 'crisis mode' to a system based on solidarity, human dignity, and the equitable sharing of responsibility among all EU member states. It specifically advocates for safe passage channels and the rejection of policies that externalise border controls.

The document details how climate indicators from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)—including precipitation, temperature, and evaporation—are integrated into the SAVi Irrigation model. It provides a literature review on the impacts of temperature and precipitation on crop yields and water requirements, establishes the methodology for calculating net and total irrigation requirements, and presents simulation results for Johannesburg under the IPSL RCP8.5 scenario, projecting a 23% increase in net irrigation requirements by 2090-2100.

The document details how climate indicators from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) are integrated into the SAVi tool to improve the analysis of infrastructure resilience. It covers a literature review of climate impacts on energy, irrigation, wastewater, buildings, roads, and nature-based infrastructure, providing specific equations to link climate variables to asset performance. The report includes simulation results for Johannesburg, South Africa, demonstrating how climate variables like temperature and precipitation affect load factors, thermal efficiency, and maintenance costs, ultimately impacting the economic viability and societal costs of these assets.

The proposal requests USD 254,007 over 24 months to support the R2E2 Fund's aspiration to become a GCF-accredited entity. The project focuses on two main outcomes: strengthening the fund's institutional capacity to meet GCF Fiduciary Standards—including the design of Environmental, Social and Gender guidelines—and developing a robust pipeline of climate finance projects. Proposed project ideas include financing solar energy and energy efficiency upgrades for households and micro-businesses in vulnerable communities, as well as infrastructure for electric vehicles and energy storage. The implementation will be managed by a dedicated Project Implementation Unit (PIU) within the R2E2 Fund and overseen by a Project Steering Committee chaired by the Deputy Minister of Environment of Armenia.

As of June 10, 2020, Israel reported 299 deaths and 18,268 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The state leveraged its advanced technology and healthcare sectors to manage the outbreak, though it faced criticism for employing counter-terrorism surveillance tools and intelligence services to track infections and procure medical equipment. The pandemic occurred during a severe political crisis, leading to the formation of a unity government. The response also highlighted disparities affecting Israeli Arabs, ultra-orthodox communities, and Palestinians in the Occupied Territories.

The authors argue that COVID-19 and climate change are direct threats to U.S. national security and act as 'threat multipliers' that amplify geostrategic competition and local conflicts. They contend that the U.S. should not simply reallocate funds away from national defense but instead expand the defense toolkit to include biodefense, climate adaptation for military bases, and support for international cooperation to prevent the collapse of global governance systems.

Iran was the hardest-hit country in the MENA region due to a delayed lockdown and early reopening, driven by a lack of financial capacity to provide income support. US sanctions and falling oil prices limited the state's stimulus package to 0.2% of GDP, while the regime used security forces to control information and suppress protests. Despite a developed healthcare system, the pandemic caused private hospital bankruptcies and a shortage of medical staff.