Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert

The policy brief examines the regional dynamics surrounding Afghanistan, arguing that the country often serves as an arena where neighbors project their own existential security concerns and rivalries. It highlights the risks associated with the US military withdrawal in 2021, noting that while global powers like Russia and China have interests in the region, there is a critical lack of a credible multilateral platform for neighbors to coordinate. The author analyzes specific tensions, including the Iran-Saudi rivalry in the Gulf, the lead taken by Uzbekistan in Central Asia, and the deep-seated India-Pakistan conflict in South Asia, concluding that any Afghan normalization not endorsed by both India and Pakistan will be unsustainable.

• The US plans to withdraw its military from Afghanistan in 2021, which removes the limiting factor on how neighboring countries engage in the conflict. The US's primary remaining interest is to ensure Afghanistan does not become a base for international terror attacks against the US and its allies.
• Afghanistan frequently functions as a 'hosting ground' for the internal disconnectedness and existential concerns of its neighbors, meaning their approach to the country reflects regional security fears rather than bilateral concerns.
• The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for hegemony in the Gulf region could potentially re-escalate within Afghanistan following the US withdrawal, as both countries have historically maintained a rivalry there.
• Among Central Asian states, Uzbekistan has taken a leadership role by hosting the 2018 Tashkent Conference, offering to facilitate intra-Afghan talks, and proposing the establishment of a UN Committee on Afghanistan.
• The bilateral security conflict between India and Pakistan blocks genuine security cooperation in South Asia and dictates their respective engagements in Afghanistan, with India providing military equipment to the Afghan government and Pakistan enabling the Taliban.
• Existing regional platforms, such as the Heart-of-Asia process and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), are either lacking the agility to strengthen a neighborly concert or are hindered by a lack of political will to fill the void left by the US.
• A sustainable normalization of Afghanistan is impossible without the endorsement of both India and Pakistan, despite efforts by global powers to decouple the Afghan peace process from the South Asian conflict.

APA

Harpviken, K. B. (2021). Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9beabd55-9b97-4591-b257-bfb448fb1b64/Harpviken - Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert PRIO Policy Brief 1-2021.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Harpviken, Kristian Berg. Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2021. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9beabd55-9b97-4591-b257-bfb448fb1b64/Harpviken - Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert PRIO Policy Brief 1-2021.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harpviken |first1=Kristian Berg |title=Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=January 2021 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9beabd55-9b97-4591-b257-bfb448fb1b64/Harpviken - Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert PRIO Policy Brief 1-2021.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harpviken2021afghan, author = {Harpviken, Kristian Berg}, title = {{Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9beabd55-9b97-4591-b257-bfb448fb1b64/Harpviken - Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert PRIO Policy Brief 1-2021.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }