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The document analyzes the current and planned gas infrastructure in Africa, highlighting a significant imbalance where the majority of investment is directed toward LNG exports to Europe rather than domestic electrification. It details the costs and capacities of LNG terminals, pipelines, and gas-fired power plants, noting that while billions are proposed for development, much of this remains in the proposal stage and faces financial risks due to the transient nature of European energy demand.

The report highlights a planned US $245 billion expansion of gas infrastructure in Africa, primarily driven by European demand following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that this focus on exports, particularly LNG and pipelines, undermines domestic energy needs and the transition to renewable energy. Significant funding gaps exist for proposed projects, and the report warns that these investments may become stranded assets as the global energy transition progresses.

Asia is currently developing 442 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new LNG import capacity, representing a US$119 billion investment. While driven by growing energy demand, these plans face a 'fork in the road' due to extreme price volatility caused by the European energy crisis and the falling cost of renewable energy. China leads the regional buildout, accounting for nearly half of Asia's planned capacity. The document warns that this infrastructure could lock economies into fossil fuel reliance, contradicting global 1.5°C warming targets.

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, European states have proposed 195 bcm/y of additional LNG import capacity to reduce reliance on Russian gas. While 9.1 bcm/y is already online and 33 bcm/y is under construction, the briefing warns that global market tightness will keep prices high until 2026. Furthermore, 15- to 20-year supply contracts signed in 2022 may undermine the EU's goal to reduce gas demand by 35% by 2030. The document also notes a lack of concrete evidence for converting this new infrastructure to hydrogen, despite claims by German project promoters.

The document argues that predictions of a dramatic wave of migration to Europe driven by food insecurity following the invasion of Ukraine are not supported by data from the first eight months of 2022. It explains that migration drivers are complex and that severe food insecurity can actually decrease the ability of the poorest people to migrate due to the high costs of travel. While the invasion has directly displaced foreign students in Ukraine and may indirectly shift migration patterns toward oil-rich economies in the Global South, it is unlikely to have significantly increased irregular migration to Europe or decreased global remittance flows.

The report examines the failures of water privatisation in Europe, citing infrastructure decay and high profits in the UK and France, while highlighting successful re-municipalisation in Paris and public resistance in Greece, Ireland, and Italy. It advocates for public ownership and cross-border cooperation to manage water as a public security issue and a public good, rather than a commodity, to effectively adapt to climate change.

The author contends that Europe's energy scarcity is a long-term reality that cannot be solved by new fossil fuels or nuclear power, necessitating a shift toward 'energy sobriety'. This approach distinguishes itself from energy efficiency by focusing on the fair distribution of energy reduction rather than technical innovation. The text explores historical precedents for rationing in France and the Netherlands to argue that collective sufficiency is feasible. Proposed mechanisms for a just transition include progressive energy tariffs—where essential use is cheap and misuse is expensive—and personal carbon quotas to ensure equitable distribution and prevent social conflict during the energy transition.

The report examines the impact of housing commodification in European cities, contrasting the neoliberal policies of the UK and Germany with the social housing models of Vienna, France, and Barcelona. It highlights how public investment and political commitment to housing as a human right, rather than a market asset, lead to lower rent burdens and better urban quality of life.

The text examines the intersection of the cost of living crisis, geopolitical shocks, and climate change in Europe, advocating for a 'social core' to the Green New Deal to ensure a just energy transition.

The briefing examines the REPowerEU plan's reliance on bioenergy to replace fossil gas and proposes alternatives to avoid this increase. It suggests that deploying an additional 100 GW of solar power by 2030 would allow the EU to meet its 45% renewable energy target while keeping bioenergy levels consistent with the Fit for 55 package. The document further asserts that bioenergy use could be reduced below current levels through faster heat electrification and higher energy efficiency targets, such as the European Parliament's proposal for a 14.5% efficiency target.

Private equity firms have significantly enabled the U.S. to become the world's largest LNG exporter, with investment in 86% of operating terminals. The report argues that these investments drive climate change via methane emissions and pose safety risks to frontline communities, citing the 2022 Freeport LNG explosion as an example of operational failure linked to worker fatigue and mismanagement.

The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar highlights the increasing risks of extreme heat and humidity for athletes, spectators, and outdoor workers, necessitating adaptations such as rescheduling the tournament to November and December. FIFA reports that the 2022 event will generate record-high emissions of approximately 3.6 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents, primarily from travel, though the organization aims for carbon neutrality through offsetting. The document also notes that heat-related risks will continue to affect future global sporting events in regions like Australia, Europe, Mexico, the U.S., and Canada.

The document highlights that the steel industry contributes nearly 10 percent of global carbon emissions and 17 percent of China's emissions, positioning clean hydrogen-based steelmaking as a potential zero-carbon solution. It notes that while Europe provides government funding across various project stages, China focuses on high-level policies for R&D, alliances, and capacity replacement.

A joint editorial by over 30 global media organisations calling for urgent climate action, increased financial support for developing nations, and a rapid transition away from fossil fuels during the Cop27 summit.

The document contends that JETP countries should leapfrog fossil gas to avoid economic volatility and asset stranding, instead leveraging their significant solar and wind resources to improve energy access and ensure a climate-safe transition.

The document contends that the current energy crisis is a "natural gas market crisis" caused by fossil fuel price volatility, specifically citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and post-pandemic recovery. It argues that natural gas is incompatible with the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets, noting that global gas emissions rose 23% between 2010 and 2019. The briefing highlights that solar and onshore wind are now cheaper than gas for two-thirds of the global population and that new gas projects face significant stranded asset risks, such as a USD 13 billion risk in the UK by 2050. It dismisses Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as an effective solution, noting that only 27 of over 260 projects undertaken between 1995 and 2018 were completed. Finally, it argues that for Africa, renewables are the fastest and cheapest way to expand energy access, as gas costs are projected to be double those of solar and wind by 2030.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has the potential to become a global leader in zero-carbon fuels, particularly hydrogen, by utilizing its geographic position and natural resources. While countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE have announced projects using wind, solar, and natural gas with carbon capture, the region requires international cooperation and demand signals to scale infrastructure. Success depends on transitioning from one-off projects to a systematic approach that addresses high costs and infrastructure gaps, supported by partnerships between MENA countries and buyers in Asia and the EU.

The report analyzes European coal transitions, finding that while support measures limited poverty, they often failed to secure new employment for workers. Successes were linked to bottom-up project identification combined with top-down financing, investments in transport and education, and environmental restoration. It suggests China can achieve a more successful just transition by proactively planning based on these European experiences.

The document argues that biogas and biomethane should primarily be reserved for hard-to-abate sectors like petrochemical production and industrial heating, as electrification via renewable energy is more cost-effective for power and heat. It highlights that biogas only addresses a minority of agricultural emissions (at most 28.9%) and warns that scaling production to meet targets, such as the EU's 35 bcm goal by 2030, could threaten food security by requiring significant arable land. Additionally, the briefing notes risks from fugitive methane emissions, high reliance on public subsidies, and safety hazards including explosions and toxicity.

The author argues that current climate efforts are in a 'catastrophic equilibrium' where unabated fossil fuel growth outpaces clean energy investment. To address this, the document advocates for three principles: recognizing the immense scale of the challenge by investing in all plausible zero-carbon technologies (including nuclear and carbon capture), moving beyond 'black box' economic models that ignore real-world constraints like land use and geopolitics, and embracing a diversified portfolio of strategies to hedge against uncertainty and risk.