Acting urgently while playing the long game: Three principles for COP27

The author argues that current climate efforts are in a 'catastrophic equilibrium' where unabated fossil fuel growth outpaces clean energy investment. To address this, the document advocates for three principles: recognizing the immense scale of the challenge by investing in all plausible zero-carbon technologies (including nuclear and carbon capture), moving beyond 'black box' economic models that ignore real-world constraints like land use and geopolitics, and embracing a diversified portfolio of strategies to hedge against uncertainty and risk.

• Despite growth in wind and solar, which are expected to increase by 8% in 2022 and surpass 5% of global energy demand, unabated fossil fuel use grew five times faster than renewable energy use in 2021.
• The global energy mix has remained stagnant since 1980, with unabated fossil energy consistently accounting for approximately 80% of the total, even as the absolute total of energy used has grown.
• The scale of the energy transition is immense, requiring the complete replacement of a 150-year-old carbon-intensive system within decades and a doubling of its size to provide electricity to 700 million people in the developing world who currently lack it.
• The author argues against 'sectarian wars' between different zero-carbon technologies, stating that renewables, nuclear energy, and carbon capture together only serve 10% of global energy demand and should be deployed simultaneously.
• Commonly used techno-economic models for net-zero pathways are criticized for being 'black box' simulations that ignore critical real-world frictions such as land use constraints, geopolitical security, supply chain limits, and the practical difficulties of electrifying heavy industry and freight.
• The document emphasizes the need to invest in technologies that may not reach commercial scale in the next decade—such as fusion energy, advanced fission, superhot rock energy, and carbon capture—to ensure long-term resilience and avoid 'technological monoculture'.

APA

Cohen, A. (2022). Acting urgently while playing the long game: Three principles for COP27. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/2022/11/acting-urgently-while-playing-long-game-three-principles-cop27/

Chicago

Cohen, Armond. Acting urgently while playing the long game: Three principles for COP27. Clean Air Task Force, 2022. https://www.catf.us/2022/11/acting-urgently-while-playing-long-game-three-principles-cop27/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Cohen |first1=Armond |title=Acting urgently while playing the long game: Three principles for COP27 |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=3 November 2022 |url=https://www.catf.us/2022/11/acting-urgently-while-playing-long-game-three-principles-cop27/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{cohen2022acting, author = {Cohen, Armond}, title = {{Acting urgently while playing the long game: Three principles for COP27}}, publisher = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://www.catf.us/2022/11/acting-urgently-while-playing-long-game-three-principles-cop27/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }