Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South

The document argues that predictions of a dramatic wave of migration to Europe driven by food insecurity following the invasion of Ukraine are not supported by data from the first eight months of 2022. It explains that migration drivers are complex and that severe food insecurity can actually decrease the ability of the poorest people to migrate due to the high costs of travel. While the invasion has directly displaced foreign students in Ukraine and may indirectly shift migration patterns toward oil-rich economies in the Global South, it is unlikely to have significantly increased irregular migration to Europe or decreased global remittance flows.

• Data from August 2016 to August 2022 indicates that migration flows to Europe do not correspond with global food prices; specifically, an increase in migration in August 2022 occurred while food prices were decreasing.
• The relationship between food insecurity and migration is complex; research in Africa suggests that while food insecurity may increase the desire to migrate, the actual probability of migrating decreases as severity increases because the costs of international travel become prohibitive.
• The invasion of Ukraine may shift migration patterns away from Europe toward countries with booming fossil fuel industries or traditional oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Senegal, and Tanzania.
• The influx of Ukrainian refugees is unlikely to reduce work opportunities for migrants from the Global South in Europe, as Ukrainian refugees are predominantly women and children with high education levels, whereas Global South migrants are often employed in Southern Europe's agriculture sector.
• The invasion directly impacted approximately 80,000 foreign students from the Global South who were studying in Ukraine and were forced to leave the country.
• Global remittance flows are unlikely to be significantly reduced by the indirect effects of the invasion, as the increased need for remittances during economic crises often offsets the impact of recessions.

APA

Mjelva, M. B., & Marsh, N. (2022). Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/260fb926-beb1-4f6b-a325-43482a547be4/Marsh and Mjelva - Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South PRIO Policy Brief 12-2022.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Mjelva, Mathilde Bålsrud, and Nicholas Marsh. Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2022. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/260fb926-beb1-4f6b-a325-43482a547be4/Marsh and Mjelva - Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South PRIO Policy Brief 12-2022.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mjelva |first1=Mathilde Bålsrud |last2=Marsh |first2=Nicholas |title=Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=December 2022 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/260fb926-beb1-4f6b-a325-43482a547be4/Marsh and Mjelva - Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South PRIO Policy Brief 12-2022.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mjelva2022consequences, author = {Mjelva, Mathilde Bålsrud and Marsh, Nicholas}, title = {{Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/260fb926-beb1-4f6b-a325-43482a547be4/Marsh and Mjelva - Consequences of the Invasion of Ukraine for Migration from the Global South PRIO Policy Brief 12-2022.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }