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The document identifies a significant divergence between climate and development policy in Africa, noting that NDCs focus on sectoral mitigation while NDPs prioritize economic growth and poverty alleviation. It warns that aggressive energy transitions to reach net-zero by 2050 could reduce cropland availability by 31%, potentially undermining the agricultural sector which employs 60% of the continent's workforce. Financially, the brief highlights a massive gap, with climate finance requirements for Africa projected at $2.7 trillion by 2030, nearly equaling the continental GDP.

The policy brief examines how water scarcity empowers non-state armed groups, delegitimizes state authority, and fuels transboundary disputes, while proposing that the US utilize its technological leadership and mediation experience to maintain geopolitical stability.

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

Global Energy Monitor reports that 216 GW of proposed green hydrogen projects in 11 African countries are primarily designed for export to Europe, despite a lack of established markets, funding, and infrastructure. The analysis highlights a disconnect between these massive, often hypothetical projects and the urgent need for domestic electrification, noting that 61% of prospective utility-scale wind and solar projects in Africa are earmarked for hydrogen. While small-scale distributed solar and wind projects have successfully improved energy access, the large-scale hydrogen push risks creating stranded assets and depleting local water resources without providing significant local economic value.

The report examines how Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad manage the influx of Sudanese refugees, highlighting a systemic gap between international legal commitments and the lived realities of displaced persons. It identifies specific failures in each country—Egypt's security-heavy approach, South Sudan's operational fragility, and Chad's institutional weakness—and recommends regional coordination through the AU and IGAD to establish a predictable protection framework.

The document argues that the AfCFTA can mitigate Africa's youth unemployment crisis by fostering a regional market for greentech goods and services. It highlights a significant trade deficit in green goods and suggests that localising production—supported by tax incentives, digital skills training, and the revitalisation of Indigenous environmental practices—can create millions of jobs. While carbon-intensive sectors may lose up to 4.2 million jobs by 2050, the energy transition could create up to 12 million jobs in the same period, provided that regulatory barriers are removed and investment is facilitated.

The report assesses gender disparities across five African nations to inform the investment strategy of the $200m Novastar Ventures Africa People and Planet Fund III (NV III). It identifies pervasive gender-based violence, gaps in STEM education, and the disproportionate impact of climate change on women in agriculture and informal employment. To address these, NV III commits to the 2x Criteria, targeting specific gender quotas for employees, management, consumers, and suppliers within its portfolio companies, while implementing a Gender Lens Investment Policy.

The document outlines green bonds as fixed-income instruments for environmental projects, noting that energy and buildings each account for approximately 30% of recent allocations. It identifies institutional investors as the core demand source and highlights the role of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in providing cumulative issuances, such as the World Bank's over USD 200bn. The text details the issuance process, noting a typical 'greenium' of 2–5 bps and a timeline of 6–12 months for sovereign framework preparation.

The report examines the role of securitisation in developing African capital markets, noting that while South Africa has a mature market, other sub-Saharan regions remain nascent. It identifies significant barriers, including fragmented legal and tax frameworks, a lack of a 'ratings culture', and limited understanding among financial institutions. Despite these challenges, the study finds a substantial supply of securitisable assets in banking, microfinance, and fintech sectors. It recommends a holistic regulatory approach, the use of anchor investors from DFIs and MDBs, and the adoption of scalable structures like warehouse facilities to mobilise private capital and bridge the private credit gap.

The report examines eight innovative financial instruments—including the Adaptation Benefit Mechanism, biodiversity credits, carbon taxes, carbon trading, credit guarantees, debt-for-nature/climate resilience swaps, pooled investment funds, and sovereign green/sustainability-linked bonds—to bridge the climate finance gap in developing countries. It identifies common barriers such as limited institutional capacity, lack of robust project pipelines, and underdeveloped local capital markets. The document emphasizes that while these instruments can signal a government's commitment to climate action, their success depends on a supportive enabling environment characterized by effective leadership, clear taxonomies, and robust climate data. For least developed countries (LDCs), the report suggests a phased approach, first strengthening basic financial and legal prerequisites before focusing on 'climate investability'. It concludes with specific recommendations for donors and development partners to provide technical assistance, anchor investments, and pilot projects to scale up private sector mobilization.

The report analyzes the global trend toward 'green industrial policies'—characterized by state intervention through subsidies, procurement, and local content requirements—and warns that these measures often prioritize domestic benefits over global equity. While EMDEs can benefit from lower technology costs and new trade opportunities in critical minerals, they face risks of 'extractive lock-in' and market distortions. The authors propose pathways for a more inclusive transition, including preferential technology licensing, scaled-up climate finance, and the recycling of carbon border adjustment revenues to support industrial upgrading in developing nations.

The September 2025 Carbon Minefields monitor reports that while licensing activity may decline slightly compared to 2024, significant global expansion continues. In August 2025, 8,700 square kilometers of acreage were awarded, with oil and gas volumes reaching their highest point for this stage of the year in five years. Over the past 12 months, 492 new licences were awarded, which could emit 1,777.8 MtCO2 if fully combusted. National oil companies (NOCs) are key drivers, acquiring over one third of these licences and accounting for half of global production. Future outlooks indicate 77 licences currently open or under evaluation and 454 additional blocks in planning, with China having the largest planned block emissions at approximately 2,670.4 MtCO2.

China's massive scale in producing solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles has significantly lowered global costs, with solar module prices falling over 70% between 2022 and mid-2025. This manufacturing capacity allows China to potentially supply the entire world's solar needs for 2030 as defined by the IEA. These affordable technologies are facilitating an 'energy leapfrog' in emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where some countries now have higher solar shares in power generation than the US. Consequently, China's own fossil fuel demand is approaching a plateau, and the global demand for fossil fuels is projected to be in structural decline by 2030.

The report examines the intersection of Africa's blue economy and climate change, highlighting vulnerabilities in fisheries, maritime transport, and tourism. It argues for a transition toward renewable ocean energy, the expansion of blue carbon initiatives, and the implementation of integrated, regional governance to mitigate economic risks and environmental degradation.

The report identifies a significant 'take-off' in solar panel imports to Africa, with imports from China rising 60% to 15,032 MW in the 12 months to June 2025. This growth is widespread, with 20 countries setting new import records and 25 countries importing at least 100 MW. The report suggests this surge may be driven by distributed solar, potentially replacing expensive diesel generation and significantly increasing electricity supply in several countries, such as Sierra Leone and Chad.

The document examines the evolving relationship between Tanzania and China, highlighting Tanzania's role as a 'first-mover' in several strategic initiatives. Central to the analysis is the December 2024 establishment of the Tanzania Investment Centre China (Hunan) Investment Cooperation Platform, which is anchored in the 'Hunan Model'—a Chinese strategy to deepen Africa ties through trade exhibitions, industrial clusters, and agricultural 'green lanes'. The author argues that Tanzania's unique position as a founding member of both the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), combined with its historical ties to China, allows it to shape cross-regional economic policy in Africa. The briefing also details other key collaborations, such as the Tazara Railway and the Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School, and provides policy suggestions to ensure the Hunan Model serves African development interests.

The document analyzes the institutional strain on BRICS caused by its expansion, noting that while the bloc's global influence has grown, its consensus-based governance struggles with divergent member interests. It evaluates Brazil's 2025 presidency, which attempted to prioritize institutional development but saw most structural reforms deferred in the Rio Declaration. The authors contrast the informal nature of the broader bloc with the formal success of the New Development Bank (NDB) and propose six targeted, low-bureaucracy improvements—including a shared document repository and standardized onboarding—to improve operational effectiveness without sacrificing the group's flexible identity.

The document analyzes the effects of Executive Order 14257, which introduced a 10% universal tariff and higher country-specific tariffs (11% to 50%) on imports to the U.S. While mineral-exporting nations may find relief through exemptions for critical minerals, countries like Lesotho and Madagascar face severe economic risks, particularly in textiles. The authors discuss the precarious future of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and advocate for a coordinated continental strategy via the African Union and the African Continental Free Trade Area to mitigate these trade disruptions.

BRICS nations now generate over half of the world's solar power, driven primarily by China, India, and Brazil. In 2024, these countries accounted for 51% of global solar electricity generation, with China alone contributing 39%. Solar power met 37% of the total increase in electricity generation across BRICS members in 2024, contributing to a total clean energy share of 70% for new generation growth. While China, India, and Brazil show strong continued growth in 2025, other members like Russia, Indonesia, and Egypt lag in solar deployment or remain dependent on fossil fuels.

The report analyzes gender inequalities in ten target countries to integrate gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) into the Global Green Bond Initiative (GGBI). It identifies systemic barriers—including gendered divisions of labor, educational gaps, and limited access to finance and property—that reduce women's resilience to climate change. The document outlines a strategy to mainstream gender into green bond issuances through gender-responsive policies, the use of gender-specific KPIs, and the appointment of gender experts to ensure equitable benefit-sharing and increased women's leadership in climate finance.