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The paper examines how African countries attempt to move beyond the export of raw minerals through resource-based industrialisation, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese investment. It analyzes tools such as export restrictions, local content requirements, and fiscal policies, concluding that these measures often fail due to inadequate infrastructure, energy shortages, and a lack of human capital. The author argues for a shift toward 'product space diversification'—developing capabilities that allow for a broader variety of exports—rather than focusing solely on downstream mineral processing (beneficiation).

The author contends that Africa's high fertility rates, particularly in countries like Tanzania, hinder economic growth by maintaining a high ratio of dependents to working-age people. By comparing Africa to the 'Asian Tiger' economies and the US, the text illustrates how a higher ratio of working-age persons per dependent drives income growth. The document suggests that improving water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive access could lead to a significantly larger economy and the elimination of poverty by 2063.

The Green Aggregation Tech Enterprise (GATE) is a proposed guarantee facility designed to mitigate demand and payment risks for mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa. By guaranteeing a baseline level of revenue, GATE aims to transform mini-grids into a bankable asset class, shifting their financing from donor grants to private debt. The instrument will be piloted in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and the DRC, with a phased implementation pathway moving from a proof-of-concept (2018-2019) to full commercialization by 2028-2030. Financial modelling suggests that at scale, GATE can be sustainable and catalytic, potentially mobilizing US$ 1.725 billion in private investment by 2030 and providing electricity to millions of households and businesses.

The report examines the 'camp economy' in Rwanda, highlighting how refugees use mobile money and informal savings groups to manage funds due to barriers in formal banking. It identifies expired identity documents and unclear 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) regulations as primary obstacles to financial inclusion. While refugees demonstrate strong business acumen, most NGO-supported livelihoods only provide subsistence-level income, and there is a significant gap in access to credit for business expansion. The document argues that including host communities in financial initiatives and streamlining regulatory requirements for refugee IDs would create a more viable market for financial service providers.

The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2018 is a strategic update to South Africa's electricity infrastructure development plan, extending the planning horizon to 2050. It evaluates various energy mix scenarios to balance security of supply, cost, and environmental impact, specifically focusing on the transition from coal to renewable energy and gas. The document also includes a Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) for 2018-2023 and a specific climate change and water resources assessment for the proposed Thabametsi coal-fired power station.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The document analyzes the ineffective responses to Burundi's political crisis, highlighting the lack of coordination between the UN, AU, and EAC. It identifies the Burundian government's intransigence and the institutional inexperience of regional bodies as primary obstacles. The author recommends a strategic overhaul that leverages comparative institutional strengths, improves evidence-based research, and ensures international access to the country to prevent mass atrocities.

The authors created the CACAO database, which uses a 110x110 km grid to map conflicts, climate data, and socio-economic variables across Africa. Initial descriptive analysis shows that conflicts often overlap with areas rich in natural resources and populated regions, while the relationship with temperature and precipitation changes is more complex and requires further spatial and temporal analysis.

The report argues that global fossil fuel subsidies, estimated at USD 425 billion in 2015, represent a massive untapped financial resource that could fund universal energy access multiple times over. It contends that untargeted consumption subsidies are often regressive, benefiting wealthier households and potentially hindering energy access by straining utility budgets and encouraging fuel smuggling. The authors propose a 'Remove, Target, and Swap' framework: removing subsidies with no energy access benefit, targeting necessary subsidies toward the poor (e.g., through connection subsidies), and swapping fossil fuel support for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.

The report exposes the Ngoki oil project in the Republic of Congo as a high-risk venture characterized by corruption, environmental negligence, and potentially exaggerated oil reserves. It highlights the project's threat to the world's largest tropical peatlands in the Cuvette Centrale, which store 30 billion tonnes of carbon. The investigation reveals that the project is controlled by businessman Claude Wilfrid Etoka, who has close ties to President Sassou-Nguesso's family and whose company, SARPD Oil, was dropped by BNP Paribas due to corruption risks. Furthermore, the report argues that the project's Environmental Impact Assessment is "unfit for purpose" as it predates the discovery of the peatlands. It also notes that oil majors Total and ENI have interests in the region, and calls for donors to the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI) and financial institutions to halt support for oil exploration in these sensitive ecosystems.

The report analyzes the remittance value chain in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), dividing it into the first, middle, and last miles. It identifies a high average remittance cost of 9.4%, driven by supply-side barriers including restrictive licensing for non-bank providers, stringent KYC/AML requirements, and outdated IT infrastructure. The study highlights a persistent consumer preference for cash and a significant shift toward informal remittance channels due to the high costs and documentation burdens of the formal sector. Key recommendations emphasize the need for regulatory harmonization, the adoption of a risk-based approach to KYC, and investment in interoperable national payment systems to reduce costs and increase financial inclusion.

The document assesses the operationalisation of the SADC Regional Development Fund (RDF), arguing that while the fund aims to mobilise resources for regional integration and infrastructure, its success is hindered by the poor fiscal positions of member states and a critical lack of bankable projects. The authors highlight a significant financing gap in early-stage project preparation, noting that 69% of SADC PIDA projects remain in early development. The paper suggests that the RDF should prioritise early-stage project support over general project finance and recommends absorbing the existing SADC Project Preparation and Development Facility (PPDF) to leverage existing expertise and reduce setup costs. It also addresses the political dynamics of South Africa's economic dominance and the over-reliance on international cooperating partners (ICPs), proposing capacity-building initiatives to improve project conceptualisation and regulatory harmonisation across borders.

The report finds that while the number of state-based armed conflicts and total casualties declined in 2017, non-state conflicts increased significantly. Syria remained the deadliest conflict, and the Islamic State (IS) was involved in 31% of all conflicts. The authors note a long-term general decline in warfare since the 1950s, though they warn that internationalized intrastate conflicts and religious extremism continue to pose major threats to global peace.

The document argues that while the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance provides a normative framework, democratic processes in Africa have largely stagnated in a transitional phase, often trapped in an 'electoral fallacy' where regular elections occur without deep institutional consolidation. It identifies internal pressures—such as the rise of populism, election-related violence, and long-term leadership—and external pressures—including the influence of non-democratic powers like China, Russia, and Turkey, and a 'security-first' doctrine from Western actors—as primary drivers of democratic recession. Despite these challenges, the author notes positive signals such as the increasing number of charter signatories, the role of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), and the effectiveness of ECOWAS in restoring democracy in specific instances. The briefing recommends limiting the concentration of power through term limits and shifting international investment toward domestic democratic processes rather than just regional frameworks.

The SADC region faces a significant electricity supply-demand gap, with 68% of residents lacking access and a heavy reliance on coal, primarily driven by South Africa. The report argues for a dual approach: strengthening the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) through better regional regulation and transboundary projects, and scaling up renewable energy mini-grids in rural areas. It highlights that while the region has vast solar, wind, and hydro potential, investment is hindered by poor policy frameworks and the financial insolvency of national utilities.

The report identifies newly adopted policies in 25 major emitting countries and regions—representing 79% of 2012 global GHG emissions—that support long-term decarbonisation goals. These policies include carbon taxes, coal phase-outs, and support for renewable energy and electric vehicles, focusing on legislative decisions and executive orders with direct effects on reducing emissions.

The report examines remittance flows in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting that while they are a vital source of capital—often exceeding official development assistance (ODA) and foreign direct investment (FDI)—formal flows are constrained by high costs and regulatory barriers. Nigeria is the dominant receiver of remittances in the region. The study identifies a significant mismatch between migration patterns and formal remittance data, suggesting a high level of informality. It argues that shifting these flows to formal channels would enhance financial sector development and overall economic growth in SSA.