TROUBLING TIMES AHEAD: ELECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE DRC

The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

• The ruling party has systematically marginalized opposition candidates through legal and administrative barriers. CENI invalidated the applications of Jean-Pierre Bemba and Antoine Gizenga, while Moïse Katumbi, a primary opponent, was barred from entering the country and faces an international arrest warrant.
• There is significant public and political distrust regarding the Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI), specifically concerning the lack of an independent audit of the voters' roll and the potential for result manipulation via electronic voting machines.
• The eastern DRC remains a zone of chronic insecurity characterized by over 70 active militia groups and interference from neighboring countries, creating Africa's largest displacement crisis with 4.4 million internally displaced people.
• The DRC's mineral wealth, especially cobalt, is a primary driver of international interest and internal political instability. The country provides 58% of global cobalt production, and control over these resources is central to the political ambitions of the ruling elite.
• The government in Kinshasa contributes to insecurity by co-opting local militias and, in some instances, encouraging them to prepare for conflict if elections do not occur.
• Regional diplomatic efforts have seen mixed results; while 'quiet diplomacy' from South Africa and Angola may have influenced President Kabila to step down, the DRC government has rejected specific envoys and foreign financial assistance to protect its 'sovereignty'.

APA

LALBAHADUR, A., & SIDIROPOULOS, E. (2018). TROUBLING TIMES AHEAD: ELECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE DRC. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-287.pdf

Chicago

LALBAHADUR, ADITI, and ELIZABETH SIDIROPOULOS. TROUBLING TIMES AHEAD: ELECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE DRC. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-287.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=LALBAHADUR |first1=ADITI |last2=SIDIROPOULOS |first2=ELIZABETH |title=TROUBLING TIMES AHEAD: ELECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE DRC |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-287.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lalbahadur2018troubling, author = {LALBAHADUR, ADITI and SIDIROPOULOS, ELIZABETH}, title = {{TROUBLING TIMES AHEAD: ELECTION SCENARIOS FOR THE DRC}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-287.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }