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Following the 2024 elections, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority, leading to the formation of a 'government of national unity' (GNU) comprising 10 parties, including the Democratic Alliance (DA). While the ANC retains key portfolios like the presidency and foreign affairs, the coalition faces significant internal ideological tensions regarding economic policy and international relations, particularly concerning BRICS, Russia, and Israel. The document highlights a critical disconnect between South Africa's economic reliance on the EU and its political leanings toward the West's adversaries, suggesting that foreign policy will be the primary test of the coalition's stability.

The 2023 elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo are marked by high voter registration but significant concerns over electoral fraud, institutional corruption, and insecurity in the east. The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) faces accusations of lack of transparency and poor quality voter identification. Security forces have reportedly cracked down on opposition candidates, and the presence of armed groups like M23 in North-Kivu and Ituri threatens to disenfranchise millions. Internationally, the outcome is linked to the control of strategic minerals, particularly cobalt, with China and the West competing for influence, and regional tensions with Rwanda and Angola complicating the political landscape.

The report identifies four primary categories of Russian disinformation in Germany: civilian targeting, escalation rhetoric, demoralisation, and conspiracies. These narratives aim to weaken German support for Ukraine, exacerbate societal divisions, and undermine the contemporary security order. While some narratives do not resonate with the majority of the population, the report warns that the adoption of conspiratorial talking points by members of the German Parliament and the convergence of Kremlin narratives with extremist movements like the Reichsbürger pose risks to civic integrity.

The report examines the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to drive long-term GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while noting that immediate gains will come from manufacturing and technology leapfrogging. It details the AU's suspension of Sudan following the military junta's crackdown on protestors and warns of risks including civil war and external influence from Gulf powers. The document highlights a democratic setback in Africa, where incumbents use constitutional amendments and electoral law changes to maintain power, citing Benin as a key example. It reviews AU peace support operations (PSOs) in Somalia and Darfur, arguing that military action must be paired with political solutions and questioning the neutrality of deploying neighbouring states. Finally, it discusses the AU-UN partnership, emphasizing the need for UN Security Council reform and sustainable financing for AU-led operations.

The document examines the persistent instability in Lesotho, focusing on the politicisation of the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF), the failure of frequent elections to provide legitimacy, and a small economy heavily reliant on government spending. It argues that while security sector reform and electoral changes are necessary, long-term stability requires diversifying the economy and improving the relationship with South Africa to reduce the competition for state resources.

The report examines the 2019 outlook for the African Union's Peace and Security Council, highlighting the potential return of major powers like South Africa and Ethiopia to the council. It critiques the slow implementation of AU reforms, specifically regarding financial self-sufficiency and the reduction of the AU Commission. The document details a volatile 2019 electoral calendar across 11+ countries and warns of escalating instability in Gabon, Cameroon, and the Sahel. Additionally, it discusses the progress of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the tensions surrounding AU-EU negotiations.

The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

The report argues that President Donald Trump's early presidency was marked by a lack of interest in Africa, a disregard for multilateralism, and leadership traits reminiscent of autocrats, which strained US–Africa relations. It highlights the risks posed by proposed budget cuts to foreign assistance, the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and the erosion of democratic norms. However, it also suggests that domestic resistance to Trump in the US and a push for greater African self-reliance could lead to a democratic reconsolidation and more resilient partnerships.

Angola is undergoing a critical presidential transition amid a severe financial crisis and rising social discontent. The report argues that the state's stability has relied on four unsustainable pillars: a centralized presidency, oil-funded patronage via Sonangol, instrumentalized foreign relations, and a securitized society. With plummeting oil prices and high debt—particularly to China—the ruling MPLA party faces internal factionalism and a strengthened opposition, primarily UNITA. The author contends that the incoming president, João Lourenço, must implement deep economic diversification and security sector reforms to avoid mass unrest or further authoritarianism.

The report analyzes the political landscape of Tanzania ahead of the 2015 elections, highlighting the challenge to the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party's long-term dominance. It identifies key drivers of potential instability, including the failure to implement a three-tier federal government structure, high youth unemployment, and historical electoral violence in Zanzibar. While the overall risk of widespread insecurity is deemed low, the document warns of localized violence and the risk of radicalization among marginalized youth.

The policy brief examines the link between presidential term extensions and political instability in Africa, citing coups in Burkina Faso and Burundi as evidence. It argues that the African Union (AU) has been too reactive, focusing on suspending governments after coups rather than preventing the constitutional manipulations that trigger them. The author calls for the AU to formalize presidential term limits within its governance architecture, specifically suggesting amendments to the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. The brief recommends that 'anchor states' like South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya use preventive diplomacy to discourage term extensions, noting that such practices undermine the goals of Agenda 2063 and regional security.

The author uses the 'Indian pattern' of communal violence to hypothesize that Myanmar's 2015 elections may trigger anti-Muslim riots and a resurgence of ethnic armed struggle. The paper argues that political elites, particularly the USDP and the military (Tatmadaw), may exploit religious and ethnic cleavages to maintain power or justify military intervention. It suggests short-term measures like postponing census results and long-term structural reforms such as federalism and proportional representation to mitigate these risks.

The document warns that Togo faces a potential election crisis if the 2006 Global Political Agreement (GPA) reforms are not consensually implemented. Despite dialogue led by Archbishop Nicodème Barrigah and US Ambassador Robert Whitehead, fundamental disputes remain over the composition of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), electoral boundaries, the voting system, and presidential term limits. The July 2013 parliamentary elections exacerbated tensions, as the ruling Union for the Republic (UNIR) won an absolute majority of 62 out of 91 seats despite receiving fewer total votes (880,000) than the combined opposition (900,000). The author argues that without urgent intervention from national actors and international facilitators like Burkina Faso's President Blaise Compaoré, the opposition may resort to street protests.

The document examines Zimbabwe's transition toward the 2013 general elections following the successful March 2013 constitutional referendum. It highlights the risks of electoral violence due to the partisan nature of the security sector and the dysfunction of the coalition government. The author outlines five possible electoral outcomes and recommends a SADC-endorsed roadmap, a security sector code of conduct, and robust international monitoring to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis.

The report analyzes the shift in power dynamics in Mali after the 2013 French military intervention. It notes that while the intervention strengthened the authority of the interim presidency and marginalized the 2012 coup leaders, deep-seated governance issues and tensions between the state and armed groups in the north remain. The author argues that military success must be followed by inclusive national reconciliation and a credible electoral process to avoid a return to previous systemic failures.

The report assesses critical security and political risks across several African nations. In Libya, it highlights the challenges of the National Transitional Council (NTC) in establishing law and order and an inclusive government post-Gaddafi. In Egypt, it examines the volatile transition under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCOAF) and the rising influence of Islamist groups. In Guinea, it analyzes the fragility of democracy following an attempted coup in July 2011. In Malawi, it details the economic and political crisis resulting from the suspension of UK budget support and violent protests. Finally, it reviews the AU's response to the severe drought and famine in the Horn of Africa, specifically Somalia, under the principle of non-indifference.

The report examines the potential secession of Southern Sudan, highlighting unresolved issues such as border demarcation and oil revenue division. It assesses the risks of the new state becoming a 'weak state' with limited control over its borders and the proliferation of small arms, while also noting opportunities for regional economic integration and trade with Kenya and Uganda.

The briefing examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of the 2011 referendum. It highlights disputes over voter registration, the status of the Abyei region, and post-referendum arrangements regarding oil revenue and borders. The author notes that while South Sudan possesses significant oil and mineral wealth, it faces challenges regarding governance, infrastructure, and ethnic stability. The document also details the role of international actors, such as the US and AUHIP, in attempting to prevent a return to armed conflict.

The document analyzes the constraints and opportunities facing the U.S. and China ahead of COP15. It argues that while the U.S. is limited by domestic legislative gridlock in the Senate, China is cautious about assuming an international leadership role despite increasing domestic climate ambition. The authors suggest that a bilateral U.S.-China understanding and the EU's role as a mediator could unlock progress, emphasizing that a pragmatic, incremental agreement is preferable to failure.

The document argues that the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers (UNMEE) in 2008 has created a diplomatic vacuum, heightening the risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It details how both regimes use the border dispute to justify domestic repression and engage in proxy wars in Somalia and Sudan. The author highlights the personal animosity between leaders Meles Zenawi and Issayas Afwerki and the fragility of the Eritrean state. It concludes by recommending that the US lead a renewed international mediation effort to establish a legally binding border demarcation.