Ethiopia and Eritrea in Turmoil: Implications for Peace and Security in a Troubled Region

The document argues that the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers (UNMEE) in 2008 has created a diplomatic vacuum, heightening the risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It details how both regimes use the border dispute to justify domestic repression and engage in proxy wars in Somalia and Sudan. The author highlights the personal animosity between leaders Meles Zenawi and Issayas Afwerki and the fragility of the Eritrean state. It concludes by recommending that the US lead a renewed international mediation effort to establish a legally binding border demarcation.

• The termination of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) on 31 July 2008 has significantly increased the risk of renewed conflict by creating a diplomatic vacuum and removing local monitoring of the demilitarised border.
• Both the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments have utilised the threat of renewed border conflict as a tool for domestic political control, justifying human rights abuses and the suppression of democratic processes.
• The border dispute is exacerbated by a pattern of proxy warfare in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia and Eritrea support opposing insurgent groups in Somalia and Sudan to destabilise one another.
• The Eritrean state is described as increasingly fragile, with an open-ended national service that has conscripted an estimated 320,000 people, approximately 35% of the productive population.
• Ethiopia faces significant internal instability due to ethnic tensions, particularly with the Oromo population (40% of the total), and the ruling EPRDF's reliance on force to maintain control.
• Economic dependencies and disputes involving Djibouti have added a new dimension to the conflict, as Ethiopia's shift of cargo traffic to Djibouti since 1998 has caused Eritrea to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue.

APA

Ewing, J. (2008). Ethiopia and Eritrea in Turmoil: Implications for Peace and Security in a Troubled Region. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SITREPETHERIT301108.PDF

Chicago

Ewing, Jonathan. Ethiopia and Eritrea in Turmoil: Implications for Peace and Security in a Troubled Region. Institute for Security Studies, 2008. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SITREPETHERIT301108.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ewing |first1=Jonathan |title=Ethiopia and Eritrea in Turmoil: Implications for Peace and Security in a Troubled Region |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 December 2008 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SITREPETHERIT301108.PDF |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ewing2008ethiopia, author = {Ewing, Jonathan}, title = {{Ethiopia and Eritrea in Turmoil: Implications for Peace and Security in a Troubled Region}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2008}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SITREPETHERIT301108.PDF}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }