Southern Sudan: the option of secession and its regional implications

The report examines the potential secession of Southern Sudan, highlighting unresolved issues such as border demarcation and oil revenue division. It assesses the risks of the new state becoming a 'weak state' with limited control over its borders and the proliferation of small arms, while also noting opportunities for regional economic integration and trade with Kenya and Uganda.

• Several critical issues remained unresolved before the January 2011 referendum, including border demarcation, citizenship, currency, debt management, the division of oil revenues, and the status of integrated security agencies.
• The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is considered an imperfect solution because it fails to address the concerns of the Blue Nile states and the Nuba Mountains, and lacks explicit channels for a continuing relationship between north and south after secession.
• While many southerners believe secession is inevitable, internal challenges such as tribal conflicts, inefficient disarmament and demobilisation, and the ability of the SPLM to achieve inclusive governance could threaten the stability of a new state.
• Territorial disputes persist over the Gambella region of Ethiopia and the Ilemi triangle, which is claimed by Kenya, Sudan, and Ethiopia; the discovery of oil in these areas may increase tensions.
• Regional security is complicated by the activities of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and the presence of Ugandan forces pursuing LRA leaders, which may clash with a new state's desire to exert its sovereignty.
• As a landlocked state, an independent Southern Sudan will depend on regional infrastructure for trade and may seek strategic relations with neighbours to reduce its dependence on the north, particularly regarding oil and resource management.

APA

Atta-Asamoah, A., & Hemmer, J. (2011). Southern Sudan: the option of secession and its regional implications. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SouthernSudan30Sep2010.pdf

Chicago

Atta-Asamoah, Andrews, and Jort Hemmer. Southern Sudan: the option of secession and its regional implications. Institute for Security Studies, 2011. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SouthernSudan30Sep2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Atta-Asamoah |first1=Andrews |last2=Hemmer |first2=Jort |title=Southern Sudan: the option of secession and its regional implications |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2011 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SouthernSudan30Sep2010.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{attaasamoah2011southern, author = {Atta-Asamoah, Andrews and Hemmer, Jort}, title = {{Southern Sudan: the option of secession and its regional implications}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2011}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SouthernSudan30Sep2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }