South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications

This briefing analyzes the upcoming January 9, 2011, referendum in Sudan and the separate plebiscite in the Abyei region to determine whether South Sudan will secede. It examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the challenges of state viability for a potential new South Sudanese state, and the role of international mediators in preventing a return to armed conflict.

• The referendum scheduled for 9 January 2011 requires a simple majority of 50 per cent plus one vote to pass, provided that at least 60 per cent of registered voters participate. Tensions have risen between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) regarding voter registration and potential manipulation of the results.
• The NCP and SPLM remain divided on critical post-referendum issues, including the demarcation of the North-South border, the status and ownership of the Abyei region, citizenship, liabilities, assets, and the sharing of oil revenue.
• A seceding South Sudan faces significant viability challenges, including a lack of infrastructure—with only approximately 65 kilometres of tarmac—and concerns over corruption, nepotism, and the potential for the SPLM to repress opposition. However, the region possesses substantial natural resources, including oil, fertile soil, uranium, gold, and copper.
• Secession would force the North to reconfigure its constitution and government structures while managing a loss of revenue, as it relies heavily on oil from the South.
• The United States has offered incentives to both North and South Sudan to ensure a successful referendum, including the potential removal of Sudan from the 'states sponsoring terrorism' list and the lifting of sanctions on trade, investment, and frozen assets, provided there is progress on the referendum and the situation in Darfur.

APA

Kisiangani, E. (2010). South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications

Chicago

Kisiangani, Emmanuel. South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications. Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kisiangani |first1=Emmanuel |title=South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 December 2010 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kisiangani2010south, author = {Kisiangani, Emmanuel}, title = {{South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }