South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications

The briefing examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of the 2011 referendum. It highlights disputes over voter registration, the status of the Abyei region, and post-referendum arrangements regarding oil revenue and borders. The author notes that while South Sudan possesses significant oil and mineral wealth, it faces challenges regarding governance, infrastructure, and ethnic stability. The document also details the role of international actors, such as the US and AUHIP, in attempting to prevent a return to armed conflict.

• The referendum process is marked by significant tension and disagreement between the NCP and SPLM over voter registration and the potential for manipulation. The North and South disagree on the number of Southerners living in the North, with the South estimating 1.5 million and the North claiming between 2.5 and 5 million, which the South interprets as an attempt to create "ghost voters" to prevent the required 60 per cent voter turnout.
• Critical unresolved issues between the North and South include the demarcation of the North-South border, the ownership of the Abyei region, and arrangements for citizenship, liabilities, assets, and the sharing of oil revenue.
• Secession would present distinct challenges for both regions: the North would face diminished oil revenues and the need to restructure its government and constitution, while the South would struggle with poor infrastructure—having only about 65 kilometres of tarmac—and risks of corruption, nepotism, and ethnic instability.
• South Sudan has the potential for economic viability due to its reserves of oil, fertile soil, and minerals including gold, copper, and uranium.
• The United States has offered incentives to both parties to ensure a successful referendum, including the potential removal of Sudan from the 'states sponsoring terrorism' list and the lifting of sanctions on trade, investment, and frozen assets, provided progress is made on the referendum and the situation in Darfur.

APA

Kisiangani, E. (2010). South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications

Chicago

Kisiangani, Emmanuel. South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications. Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kisiangani |first1=Emmanuel |title=South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 December 2010 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kisiangani2010south, author = {Kisiangani, Emmanuel}, title = {{South Sudan's Referendum and Its Possible Implications}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/south-sudans-referendum-and-its-possible-implications}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }