The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change

This report analyzes the political and social landscape of Tanzania ahead of its fifth multiparty democratic election in October 2015. It examines the dominance of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the challenges of constitutional reform, the structural tensions within the Union between the mainland and Zanzibar, and the emerging social cleavages driven by youth unemployment and economic inequality.

• The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is the oldest ruling party in Africa and has historically maintained a system where the distinction between party and state was minimal. From 1977 to 1995, the party established an entrenched structure across all levels of society, including villages and social organizations, using a system of patronage and personal loyalty over merit.
• Tanzania's constitutional reform process has been characterized by a gap between public aspirations and the final outcomes approved by the ruling party. While the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) proposed a three-tier federal government and reduced presidential powers, the Constituent Assembly (CA)—dominated by the CCM—rejected these changes, leading to a boycott by the opposition coalition Ukawa.
• The Union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar is viewed as imbalanced, with Zanzibar acting as an unequal partner. Opposition parties advocate for a three-tier federal structure to recognize the sovereignty of both states, while the CCM maintains the existing structure. However, the CA did reduce Union matters from 22 to 14, granting Zanzibar more autonomy over trade and natural resources.
• Elections in Zanzibar have been historically unstable and prone to violence compared to the mainland. Tensions are exacerbated by identity politics between Arab and African populations and the influence of Uamsho, an Islamic organization promoting secession. While a 2010 power-sharing agreement (Maridhiano) created a Government of National Unity (GNU) to ensure stability, grievances among unemployed youth remain a risk for radicalization.
• The opposition, unified under the Ukawa coalition, has gained traction by appealing to urban populations, the middle class, and youth. Chadema, in particular, has increased its presidential vote share from 5.8% in 2005 to 26% in 2010 by focusing on socio-economic issues like youth unemployment and corruption, contrasting with the CCM's focus on stability.
• Despite macroeconomic growth exceeding 6% per year since 2012, economic benefits are not broadly shared, leaving 32% of the population below the poverty line. This disparity, combined with high youth unemployment (up to 80% for men under 30 in some areas of Zanzibar), has led to increased social agitation and localized violence, such as the 'Panya Road' clashes in Dar es Salaam.

APA

Hutton, L. (2015). The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf

Chicago

Hutton, Lauren. The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hutton |first1=Lauren |title=The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hutton2015tanzanian, author = {Hutton, Lauren}, title = {{The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }