The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change

The report analyzes the political landscape of Tanzania ahead of the 2015 elections, highlighting the challenge to the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party's long-term dominance. It identifies key drivers of potential instability, including the failure to implement a three-tier federal government structure, high youth unemployment, and historical electoral violence in Zanzibar. While the overall risk of widespread insecurity is deemed low, the document warns of localized violence and the risk of radicalization among marginalized youth.

• The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has maintained a dominant, entrenched system of political power since 1977, where the distinction between party and state was often superficial. This system relied on networks of obligation and patronage, which the report suggests has led to a lack of institutionalization and a preference for party loyalty over merit.
• The constitutional review process, which began in 2012, failed to resolve the fundamental dispute over the structure of the Union. While the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) proposed a three-tier federal structure with separate governments for Tanganyika, Zanzibar, and the Union, the Constituent Assembly (CA) retained the existing two-tier structure, leading to a boycott by the opposition coalition Ukawa in April 2014.
• Zanzibar remains a primary site of political instability, with a history of electoral violence since 1995. The report notes that the 2000 elections resulted in at least 40 deaths and 600 injuries. While a 2010 power-sharing agreement known as 'Maridhiano' led to a more peaceful election, deep historical divisions and demands for autonomy persist.
• There is a significant risk of radicalization among unemployed youth in Zanzibar, driven by economic marginalization and the influence of organizations like Uamsho. The report highlights that some unemployment figures for men under 30 on the islands reach as high as 80%, creating a fertile environment for militant groups such as al-Shabaab.
• Despite macroeconomic growth exceeding 6% per year since 2012, the benefits have not been broadly shared. Poverty remains high, with 32% of the population living below the poverty line, and significant regional disparities exist; per capita incomes in poorer rural regions are less than half of those in Dar es Salaam.
• The opposition has achieved a new level of unity through the Ukawa coalition, combining parties like Chadema and CUF. This unity is primarily focused on challenging the CCM's hold on political power and the current constitutional framework rather than proposing a new developmental economic model.

APA

Hutton, L. (2015). The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf

Chicago

Hutton, Lauren. The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change. Institute for Security Studies, 2015. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hutton |first1=Lauren |title=The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2015 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hutton2015tanzanian, author = {Hutton, Lauren}, title = {{The Tanzanian election 2015: Balancing stability and change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/East_Africa_Report6.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }