Towards delivering credible polls in Zimbabwe

The document examines Zimbabwe's transition toward the 2013 general elections following the successful March 2013 constitutional referendum. It highlights the risks of electoral violence due to the partisan nature of the security sector and the dysfunction of the coalition government. The author outlines five possible electoral outcomes and recommends a SADC-endorsed roadmap, a security sector code of conduct, and robust international monitoring to prevent a repeat of the 2008 crisis.

• The March 16, 2013 constitutional referendum saw a high turnout of 3,317,695 people, representing over half of the estimated 5.6 million registered voters, with 94.5 percent voting in favour of the new constitution.
• There is a significant risk that the security sector may abuse the rule of law during the elections, as some service chiefs have threatened to veto the results if Robert Mugabe does not win.
• The focus on constitutional reform led to the neglect of other critical electoral preparations, including voter education, the cleaning of the voters' roll, and reforms regarding the media and security sector governance.
• International responses to the referendum included the suspension of restrictive measures by the European Union against 81 individuals and eight companies, and the US suspension of sanctions against the Agricultural Development Bank of Zimbabwe and the Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe.
• The document identifies five potential trajectories for the election: a ZANU-PF victory, an MDC-T victory requiring SADC/AU guarantees for power transfer, an inconclusive result leading to new power-sharing agreements, a split election (parliamentary first, presidential deferred), or the formation of a grand coalition of change.
• The UN's ability to provide electoral support is currently stalled because the Zimbabwean government has not agreed on the modalities for a UN Needs Assessment Mission (NAM) as of April 30.

APA

Dzinesa, G. A. (2013). Towards delivering credible polls in Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief41.pdf

Chicago

Dzinesa, Gwinyayi A. Towards delivering credible polls in Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief41.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dzinesa |first1=Gwinyayi A. |title=Towards delivering credible polls in Zimbabwe |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=May 2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief41.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dzinesa2013towards, author = {Dzinesa, Gwinyayi A.}, title = {{Towards delivering credible polls in Zimbabwe}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, month = may, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief41.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }