INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2018

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2018 is a strategic update to South Africa's electricity infrastructure development plan, extending the planning horizon to 2050. It evaluates various energy mix scenarios to balance security of supply, cost, and environmental impact, specifically focusing on the transition from coal to renewable energy and gas. The document also includes a Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) for 2018-2023 and a specific climate change and water resources assessment for the proposed Thabametsi coal-fired power station.

• The IRP 2018 update was necessitated by changes in key assumptions from the IRP 2010-2030, including electricity demand that "did not increase as envisaged", Eskom plant performance falling "way below the 80% availability factor", and significant declines in technology costs.
• For the period ending 2030, the committed Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme (REIPPP) and Eskom's capacity rollout (ending with Kusile in 2022) are expected to provide sufficient capacity to cover demand and plant decommissioning until approximately 2025.
• Scenario analysis indicates that removing annual build limits on renewable energy (RE) provides the least-cost electricity path for both the 2030 and 2050 horizons.
• Post-2030 projections show a significant decline in coal's contribution to the energy supply, falling to less than 30% by 2040 and less than 20% by 2050, driven by the decommissioning of 35GW of coal plants by 2050 and emission constraints.
• The recommended plan for the period ending 2030 adopts a least-cost approach but retains annual build limits of 1000MW for PV and 1600MW for wind to ensure a "smooth roll out of RE" and sustain the industry.
• The recommended plan includes the addition of 1000MW of coal-to-power in 2023-2024 and 2500MW of hydro power by 2030, the latter to facilitate the RSA-DRC treaty on the Inga Hydro Power Project.
• The Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) for 2018-2023 concludes that the system is adequate for all demand scenarios if the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is 75% or above, but inadequate at 71% regardless of demand growth.
• The proposed Thabametsi coal-fired power station (1200MW) is projected to have a high GHG emission intensity of 1.23 tons of CO2e per MWh, which is 17% higher than the average of Eskom's current fleet.
• The Thabametsi project faces high risks regarding water availability in the water-scarce Lephalale region, relying on the Mokolo Crocodile (West) Water Augmentation Project (MCWAP) phases 1 and 2.
• The Thabametsi project utilizes circulating fluidised bed (CFB) technology and dry cooling, which reduces water demand by up to 15 times compared to conventional wet-cooled stations, but results in higher N2O emissions.

APA

Centre for Environmental Rights (2018). INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2018. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Thabametsi-Answering-Affidavit-105-304.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Centre for Environmental Rights. INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2018. 2018. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Thabametsi-Answering-Affidavit-105-304.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Centre for Environmental Rights |title=INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2018 |date=August 2018 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Thabametsi-Answering-Affidavit-105-304.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centreforenvironmentalrights2018integrated, author = {{Centre for Environmental Rights}}, title = {{INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2018}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Thabametsi-Answering-Affidavit-105-304.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }