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The report examines the 'gathering storm clouds' of political and economic uncertainty in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It argues that a combination of commodity price collapses, neo-patrimonial governance, and rapid population growth is creating a volatile environment. The analysis highlights a critical gap between population growth and the provision of basic services, alongside a history of 'pseudo-democratic' regimes that resist genuine political transition. The authors warn that without strategic diversification of economies and significant investment in human capital, the region's large youth population could become a catalyst for further instability and violence.

The document evaluates the progress of WTO commitments made at the 10th Ministerial Conference (MC10) in Nairobi, specifically regarding agriculture and least-developed countries (LDCs). It highlights significant implementation gaps, such as the lack of a permanent solution for public stockholding for food security and the slow pace of eliminating agricultural export subsidies. The paper notes a fundamental disagreement between developed and developing nations over whether to prioritize the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) or introduce new 21st-century trade issues. For South Africa, the authors recommend aligning with the Africa Group on regional integration and industrialization, supporting the G33 proposal on public stockholding, and backing the ACP proposal on fisheries subsidies to support its own ocean economy.

The community of Doevi Kope in Togo is resisting oil exploration after being alerted by Les Amis de la Terre Togo to the risks of environmental degradation and loss of livelihoods. Following a 2012 confirmation of oil deposits, the government initially signed a contract with the Italian company ENI, which was later cancelled due to advocacy campaigns. Community members who visited Ghana and studied cases in Nigeria observed that oil extraction led to fish kills, poisoned farmland, and failed promises of resettlement and employment. The community also notes a history of displacement and coastal erosion caused by port construction in the 1960s and current new port projects. Despite the cancellation of the ENI contract, the government is reportedly seeking a new partner to proceed with extraction.

The Doevi Kope community in Togo, supported by Les Amis de la Terre Togo, is resisting oil exploration following the 2012 confirmation of oil off their coast. After the government signed a contract with the Italian company ENI without community knowledge, a campaign led to the contract's cancellation. Community members' opposition is informed by visits to Ghana and reports from Nigeria and Chad, where they observed oil pollution killing fish, poisoning farmland, and destroying livelihoods. The community also cites previous government failures, such as a 1960s harbor project that caused severe coastal erosion and house destruction. Despite the initial contract cancellation, the government is reportedly seeking a new partner for oil extraction.

The document details the resistance of communities in Doevi Kope, Gbetsogbe, and Katanga against offshore oil exploration in Togo. Following the discovery of oil deposits in 2012 and a secret contract with the Italian energy company ENI, local activists and residents campaigned to have the contract terminated. The resistance is informed by observed impacts in Nigeria, Chad, and Ghana, where oil extraction led to the destruction of fisheries, agricultural land, and livelihoods. The text also notes that the region has previously suffered from coastal erosion and displacement caused by port construction since the 1960s, and warns that the Togolese government may still be seeking a new partner to exploit the oil deposits.

The report argues that terrorism and violent extremism are highly gendered activities and that PVE and CT responses are more sustainable and effective when they promote gender equality and women's empowerment. It identifies gaps in global policy implementation, highlights the gendered impact of CT human rights violations, and warns against the instrumentalisation of women in PVE programming. The authors recommend a shift toward context-specific, human rights-compliant strategies that engage both men and women as equal actors, particularly through a focus on parenting.

The document assesses the financial links between natural resource extraction and violent extremism in Africa, finding that while the LRA relies heavily on ivory and the Janjaweed on gold, al-Shabaab primarily funds itself through charcoal taxation, and Boko Haram derives little to no revenue from resource extraction.

The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

The African Union (AU) has established several legal frameworks to combat terrorism, including the 1999 Algiers Convention and the 2004 Protocol, but implementation is stalled by low ratification rates among member states. Key countries facing terrorism, such as Nigeria and Somalia, have not ratified the 2004 Protocol. The AU's efforts are further undermined by a lack of monitoring systems, severe funding shortages—with member states contributing only 40% of the 2016 budget—and a tendency for international powers like the US and France to bypass the AU in favor of direct bilateral operations with individual states.

The document analyzes electoral trends in Africa between 2015 and early 2016, identifying four negative trends: constitutional alterations to extend term limits, manipulation of electoral calendars, harassment of opposition candidates, and low voter turnout. It highlights a gap between the existence of continental democratic frameworks, such as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), and the political will of governing elites to implement them. The authors recommend structural reforms, respect for electoral calendars, and the adoption of social media codes of conduct to protect freedom of expression.

The document analyzes Ethiopia's rapid economic growth and human development progress since 1991, while highlighting persistent gaps in basic service access and agricultural productivity. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, it compares a 'Current Path' forecast against various intervention scenarios, concluding that an integrated approach across agriculture, education, health, and governance is necessary to reach lower-middle-income status by 2025.

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The document analyzes Boko Haram's shift toward 'soft targets,' specifically displaced populations in Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. It details the rise in attacks on IDP and refugee camps, the use of female and child suicide bombers, and the infiltration of refugee flows by militants. The author argues that these tactics may serve strategic purposes, such as 'capacity swamping' to coerce governments, turning host communities against refugees, and increasing the group's international visibility.

The report examines Nigerian citizens' views on Boko Haram, identifying a complex interplay of financial incentives, lack of education, and a desire for belonging as primary recruitment drivers. It highlights a deep distrust of Nigerian political institutions and local government, contrasted with higher trust in the presidency and religious leaders. The study finds that while many citizens favor military action, there is significant support for non-military solutions and a strong belief that corruption is a primary security threat. Funding is perceived to come largely from politicians and other terrorist groups, though criminal activities also contribute.

The policy brief examines the increasing presence of sub-Saharan African migrants in Algeria and Morocco, noting that while they have not been significantly implicated in terrorism, their precarious socio-economic conditions and exposure to racism create vulnerabilities. It advocates for the operationalisation of regularisation schemes and the adoption of non-coercive PVE strategies based on UN pillars to prevent future radicalisation.

The document outlines a comprehensive framework for financing National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, distinguishing between the lower-cost 'development phase' (planning and coordination) and the high-cost 'implementation phase' (execution of adaptation actions). It identifies four primary funding streams: national public finance (budgets, fiscal instruments, and national climate funds), bilateral providers (grants and technical assistance), multilateral funds (such as the Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund), and the private sector (through direct investment and public-private partnerships). The guide emphasizes the necessity of a tailored financing strategy that identifies funding gaps, determines appropriate financial instruments, and establishes operational steps to align national adaptation priorities with available resources.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The document analyzes Nigeria's struggle to maintain its status as a 'regional hegemon' since the return to democracy in 1999. It argues that while Nigeria has a history of assertive 'Africa-centred' foreign policy, this has been eroded by domestic instability, corruption, the Boko Haram insurgency, and a lack of strategic leadership. The author highlights a shift in continental pre-eminence from Nigeria to South Africa and notes that Nigeria's regional influence in West Africa is contested and often dependent on external actors like France. The paper concludes that only a fundamental restructuring of domestic governance and the economy can restore Nigeria's international standing.

The document analyzes the state of democracy in Africa, arguing that while electoral democracy has increased since 1989, it is often constrained by neopatrimonialism and a lack of governance capacity. It explores the 'sequencing debate' regarding whether democracy precedes or follows economic development, noting that while authoritarian models have sometimes delivered rapid growth, long-term human development is robustly linked to high-quality electoral democracy. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, the author forecasts that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy could significantly increase Africa's GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2070 compared to an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario.

The document evaluates the 25th Summit of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) in Nairobi, noting a renewed energy under new leadership but highlighting persistent challenges including poor attendance by heads of state, significant financial arrears, and the need for faster reporting cycles to maintain relevance.