Key to the Horn Ethiopia’s prospects to 2030

This policy brief, published by the Institute for Security Studies in 2017, analyzes Ethiopia's development trajectory toward 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the document evaluates the impact of various sectoral interventions—specifically in agriculture, education, health, and governance—on poverty, GDP per capita, and the Human Development Index (HDI). It argues that while Ethiopia has seen rapid growth and improvements in basic services since 1991, it still faces significant challenges in agricultural productivity, primary school completion, and domestic revenue mobilization. The brief recommends an 'Integrated Development Push' to accelerate the country's transition to lower-middle-income status.

• Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic and social progress since 1991, including quadrupling primary school enrolment, halving child mortality, and doubling access to clean water. It also achieved the fastest increase in improved sanitation access of any African country since 1990, rising from 2.5% to approximately 29% in 2016.
• Despite growth, Ethiopia continues to have very low access to basic services and poor agricultural productivity. In 2016, it ranked 174 out of 186 countries for clean water access and 161 for improved sanitation. Agricultural yields are among the lowest globally (ranked 154), contributing to high food insecurity.
• Extreme poverty remains a significant burden, with approximately 25 million people (25% of the population) living on less than US$1.90 per day. While the current trajectory suggests a reduction to 10% by 2030, nearly 15 million people would still live in extreme poverty.
• The Ethiopian government faces a critical need to improve domestic revenue collection as foreign aid, which has averaged near 11% of GDP since the mid-1990s, is forecast to decline as a percentage of GDP over the next 5–10 years.
• Political and social instability has emerged, evidenced by large protests in 2015 and 2016 in the Oromia and Amhara regions. These unrests, which led to a state of emergency in October 2016, stem from demands for greater political and economic inclusion and ethnic tensions.
• Scenario modeling indicates that an 'Agricultural Resilience' strategy would be the most effective single intervention for reducing extreme poverty (by 32% relative to the Current Path) and increasing GDP by 2030. Other positive scenarios include 'Advancing Education' (highest HDI improvement) and 'Improved Governance' (sizeable GDP and poverty reduction).
• An 'Integrated Development Push' combining coordinated policies across sectors could increase annual growth rates to between 8% and 11% and allow Ethiopia to reach lower-middle-income status by 2025, approximately five years earlier than the Current Path forecast.

APA

Donnenfeld, Z., Porter, A., Cilliers, J., Moyer, J. D., Scott, A. C., Maweni, J., & Aucoin, C. (2017). Key to the Horn Ethiopia’s prospects to 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief102-2.pdf

Chicago

Donnenfeld, Zachary, Alex Porter, Jakkie Cilliers, Jonathan D Moyer, Andrew C Scott, Joel Maweni, and Ciara Aucoin. Key to the Horn Ethiopia’s prospects to 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief102-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{donnenfeld2017key, author = {Donnenfeld, Zachary and Porter, Alex and Cilliers, Jakkie and Moyer, Jonathan D and Scott, Andrew C and Maweni, Joel and Aucoin, Ciara}, title = {{Key to the Horn Ethiopia’s prospects to 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policybrief102-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }