Gathering storm clouds

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political and economic instability within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It examines how a decline in global commodity prices, coupled with neo-patrimonial governance and rapid population growth, creates a volatile environment. The authors use the International Futures (IFs) system to forecast trends up to 2040, warning that without significant investments in human capital and democratic reform, the region faces increased risks of instability and violence.

• The CEMAC region is experiencing an economic crisis triggered by the decline in commodity prices since 2014, which has exposed structural contradictions in petro-dependent economies. In 2016, regional economic growth averaged 0.6%, with Equatorial Guinea shrinking by 10%, while Chad and the Republic of Congo also saw negative growth.
• Governance in the CEMAC region is characterized by neo-patrimonial systems and long-serving leaders. As of 2017, the average presidential term in the region is 28.5 years, with some leaders in power for over 30 years, including Paul Biya in Cameroon (35 years) and Teodoro Obiang Nguema in Equatorial Guinea (38 years).
• The region suffers from extremeSextreme inequality and poor human development. The CEMAC region has the second highest levels of inequality in Africa, with an average Gini score of 0.44. The Central African Republic (0.57) and Equatorial Guinea (0.52) are among the 15 most unequal states globally.
• Rapid population growth is forecast to place severe pressure on state service delivery. The CEMAC population is expected to increase by roughly 75%, from 51 million in 2016 to over 90 million by 2040, creating a demand for education and employment for 25 million additional people.
• Despite a projected reduction in the proportion of people living in poverty from 39% in 2017 to 30% in 2040, the absolute number of people living in extreme poverty is forecast to increase by approximately 10 million people due to population growth.
• The region is prone to the 'resource curse,' where reliance on extractable resources undermines the development of a social contract and fuels corruption. This makes regimes vulnerable to violence when commodity prices drop and the ability to maintain patronage networks diminishes.
• CEMAC countries are classified as mixed regimes or anocracies, which are statistically more unstable than full democracies or autocracies. The report forecasts that these countries will remain below the democratic threshold until 2040, increasing the risk of destabilizing events, especially given high ethnic and religious factionalism.
• The region faces significant security threats from non-state armed groups and cross-border networks. This includes Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin, factionalized groups in the CAR, and the Ninja militia in the Republic of Congo's Pool region.
• There is a rising trend of politically motivated violence in the region since 2012, most notably in Cameroon, which saw a more than 10-fold increase in reported incidents between 2012 and 2016, partly driven by the anglophone crisis in the North West and South West regions.
• The region's agricultural sector is underperforming relative to its potential. Despite producing 33% more per person than the African average, CEMAC imports nearly 8% of its total crop consumption, a figure forecast to rise to over 30% by 2040.

APA

Akum, F., & Donnenfeld, Z. (2017). Gathering storm clouds. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf

Chicago

Akum, Fonteh, and Zachary Donnenfeld. Gathering storm clouds. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Akum |first1=Fonteh |last2=Donnenfeld |first2=Zachary |title=Gathering storm clouds |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{akum2017gathering, author = {Akum, Fonteh and Donnenfeld, Zachary}, title = {{Gathering storm clouds}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }