Gathering storm clouds

The report examines the 'gathering storm clouds' of political and economic uncertainty in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It argues that a combination of commodity price collapses, neo-patrimonial governance, and rapid population growth is creating a volatile environment. The analysis highlights a critical gap between population growth and the provision of basic services, alongside a history of 'pseudo-democratic' regimes that resist genuine political transition. The authors warn that without strategic diversification of economies and significant investment in human capital, the region's large youth population could become a catalyst for further instability and violence.

• The CEMAC region is characterized by neo-patrimonial governance systems that prioritize the survival of a small political elite over collective human development, resulting in some of the lowest governance scores in Africa.
• Economic instability in the region is driven by a heavy reliance on primary commodities, particularly energy, which exposes these states to the 'resource curse' and vulnerability to price shocks.
• Rapid population growth is forecast to outpace the delivery of basic services, leading to an increase in the absolute number of people living in extreme poverty and without access to water or sanitation by 2040.
• The region faces a significant 'youth bulge', with a working-age population forecast to grow by 25.6 million by 2040; without investment in education and jobs, this demographic is viewed as a potential driver of instability.
• Political transitions in the region are highly unpredictable and often violent, as regimes have adopted the outward appearance of democracy while maintaining authoritarian control.
• Security is threatened by both internal political violence and cross-border non-state armed groups, including Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin and various militias in the Central African Republic.
• Despite being a productive agricultural region, CEMAC remains dependent on food imports, a vulnerability that is expected to increase by 2040 due to population growth.

APA

Akum, F., & Donnenfeld, Z. (2017). Gathering storm clouds. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf

Chicago

Akum, Fonteh, and Zachary Donnenfeld. Gathering storm clouds. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Akum |first1=Fonteh |last2=Donnenfeld |first2=Zachary |title=Gathering storm clouds |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{akum2017gathering, author = {Akum, Fonteh and Donnenfeld, Zachary}, title = {{Gathering storm clouds}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }